Millet Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Muted Demand and Tight Supply

The global millet market is experiencing a period of mild pressure as robust early-season sales have driven farmer engagement, yet demand from processors and end-users has entered a seasonal lull. In China, over 35% of millet stocks have been sold, driven by farmers’ acceptance of current price levels. While the enthusiasm for selling remains moderate, downstream demand has tapered off following the Mid-Autumn Festival, and millet processors are holding adequate inventories. This has resulted in reduced purchasing activity and a notable decrease in raw grain demand.

Despite the slackened demand, upside risks for significant price drops are capped due to a slightly lower harvest compared to last year and the consideration of grower margins. Furthermore, supply strains in key origins such as Ukraine and China are adding subtle upward support—but these are, for now, insufficient to spark a rally. Internationally, market sentiment is neutral, with spot prices in major exporting hubs like Odesa, Ukraine, maintaining stability. Weather patterns are being closely watched for their influence on late-harvest quality in northern China and the Black Sea region, though no major disruptions are anticipated in the near term. The outlook for November is thus one of stability with a slight downward bias, but any significant shifts in weather, logistics, or policy could quickly alter the landscape.

📈 Prices: Latest Spot Market Overview

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date	Sentiment
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.30	0.30	2025-10-24	Neutral
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, red	98%	No	FCA	0.31	0.31	2025-10-24	Neutral
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	2025-10-24	Neutral
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.40	0.40	2025-10-24	Neutral
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow		No	FOB	0.19	0.19	2025-10-24	Neutral
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.86	0.85	2025-10-22	Slightly Bullish
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FOB	0.77	0.76	2025-10-22	Slightly Bullish

🌏 Supply & Demand: Regional Developments

• China: Over 35% of millet harvest has been sold. Farmers are satisfied with current price levels, ensuring active sales, but most processors have comfortable stocks and have slowed additional purchases.
• Demand: Following the festive season, final demand for processed millet (xiaomi) is waning as consumers enter the post-holiday digestion period.
• Ukraine: Prices have remained unchanged since last update, suggesting stability and balance between available stocks and export demand.
• Inventory: Slow buying by Chinese processors implies that inventory levels remain generally sufficient, reducing short-term raw material demand.

📊 Fundamentals: Macro & Market Drivers

• Chinese harvest is down slightly year-on-year, providing some floor to prices.
• Farmer margins remain positive yet not excessive, keeping supply on a steady trickle rather than flooding the market.
• Global inventories among key exporters are not tight but are trending gently lower.
• No significant speculative activity reported; market sentiment is steady.
• International freight and terminal logistics are stable but bear watching given the geopolitical backdrop in the Black Sea.

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Impact on Key Regions

• Northern China: Current weather is generally favorable for late crops, with mild temperatures and low rainfall supporting quality. No substantial stress is expected in the coming week.
• Black Sea (Ukraine): Mild, dry conditions persist, aiding final harvest operations but signaling no major boost or deterioration in grain quality.

🌍 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (2023/24, kt)	Stock Level (kt)	Export/Import Role
China	~2,600	Moderate	Largest producer, moderate importer
India	~10,400	High	Largest producer, mostly domestic use
Ukraine	~250	Low	Major exporter to EU and ME/North Africa
Nigeria	~5,000	Moderate	Domestic use
EU	~750	Low	Importer

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For sellers: Maintain steady forward sales as November approaches; do not expect a major upswing, but downside risks are limited.
• For buyers/processors: Take advantage of current price stability; secure coverage for late-year fulfillment, especially if dependent on Black Sea shipments.
• For traders: Monitor processor and inventory trends in China—an uptick in buying could reverse the neutral mood.
• Continue monitoring weather in both China and Ukraine for signs of late-harvest disruption.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Hub	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Projected Range	Forecast Sentiment
Odesa, UA	0.30 – 1.20	0.30 – 1.21	Stable, slight downward bias for lower grades
Beijing, CN	0.77 – 0.86	0.77 – 0.87	Stable to slightly firm for organic/higher grades