Almonds Market Shows Bullish Momentum Amid Tightening Supply and Firm Prices

The almonds market is currently seeing a pronounced bullish shift, driven by a combination of stronger-than-expected export shipments, a smaller crop than originally anticipated, and resilient demand fundamentals. October’s robust export figures (+5.2% YoY) have more than compensated for a steep drop in domestic shipments (-28.5% YoY), underscoring the importance of international buyers—particularly from Europe and the Middle East. The market consensus now places the final US crop at 2.6–2.7 billion lbs, markedly below earlier projections of 3.0 billion, indicating supply is less burdensome than feared.

Price levels have risen significantly off recent lows and are described as ‘very stable and very firm,’ with early November offers at $3.00–3.05/lb FAS (~5.70–5.80 EUR/kg). Strategic buyers in India and the EU took advantage of lower prices in summer and autumn to rebuild coverage, while the quick depletion of inventories in India post-Diwali signals further buying waves could quickly tighten spot supplies. Despite subdued domestic demand in October, retail and industrial inquiries for 2026 are healthy, suggesting buyers are spreading forward coverage amid firmer prices. Harvest delays from late rains in California have added uncertainty to final receipt numbers but are not expected to disrupt logistics or threaten near-term deliveries. Overall, the firm shipment pace, aggressive new sales (261.8 Mio lbs in October), and healthy export demand lay a foundation for continued firmness into 2025 and beyond.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Delivery/Exchange	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr, 18/20	FAS DC	6.77	0.00	Bullish
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr 20/22	FAS DC	6.73	0.00	Bullish
Almonds kernels	US	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (Organic)	FOB DC	9.37	0.00	Bullish

• Current US STDS 5% FAS: $3.00–3.05/lb (~5.70–5.80 EUR/kg)
• Comparable local prices (India): ~587–597 INR/kg
• Comparable local prices (Turkey): ~279–284 TRY/kg

🌍 Supply & Demand

• October shipments: 249.23 Mio lbs (-3.6% YoY)
• Export dominance: Exports 201 Mio lbs (+5.2% YoY), driven by EU and Middle East demand, offsetting a weak US domestic shipment (48.22 Mio lbs, -28.5% YoY)
• Season-to-date shipments (Aug–Oct): 604 Mio lbs (-5.62% YoY)
• Crop receipts to late October: 1.698 bln lbs vs. 1.845 bln last year (-7.97%)
• Report consensus on US 2025 crop size: 2.6–2.7 bln lbs (well under original 3.0 bln estimate)
• Sales position: If 2.7 bln crop, 44.2% sold; strong new sales in October (261.8 Mio lbs)

Key Export Destinations (Aug–Oct)

Country	Total (Mio lbs)	YoY Change
India	28.2	-29%
U.A.E.	20.6	-5%
Spain	19.0	+52%
Turkey	18.7	-19%
Italy	8.3	+10%
Germany	5.9	+23%

• India remains largest importer but shipments timing sensitive; EU buyers rebuilt coverage with strong YoY growth.
• Demand in UAE and Turkey stable but slightly delayed by financial and inventory factors.

📊 Fundamentals

• Smaller US crop tightening forward balance sheets, supporting firmer prices through 2025.
• Old-crop stocks in India near depletion; new-crop arrivals limited—potential for renewed Indian import activity.
• Europe rebuilt cover on price pullbacks; expected to be more cautious forward if EUR/USD stays stable.
• Premium varieties (Nonpareil) now firm as lower grades have tightened, with packers now more active in clearing Independence, Extra #1.
• Currency context: USD modestly up but stable; European and Turkish buyers not in ‘bargain’ zone but prices remain fundamentally sound due to competing nut inflation and tighter supply.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• California harvest largely complete but delayed by rain; 85–90% of crop delivered to hullers by late Oct.
• First major winter storm forecasted for mountains; wet season onset should benefit 2026 crop potential (moisture, reservoirs).
• No major logistics disruptions—shipment pace and port/inland flows functioning well.

Latest California Weather (Nov 2025)	Potential Impact
Light-to-moderate precipitation, colder snap, first seasonal snow in mountains	Supports long-term orchard health and 2026 crop but minor short-term effects

🌏 Global Balance & Stocks

• US crop: 2.6–2.7 bln lbs expected (down ~10% vs. projections)
• EU (Spain): Strong processing/re-export; supportive to global demand
• India: Old-crop gone, new arrivals low—tight spot positions likely to spur buying

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For buyers (esp. industrial/retail):
  • Consider extending coverage into Q2-Q3 2026 on corrections; pure spot buying is riskier amid a smaller crop and sustained export demand.
  • Independence and Extra #1 kernels may offer value relative to the firm Nonpareil premiums.
• For sellers/packers:
  • Patient, strategic selling advised as crop estimates decline and demand remains robust.
  • Tactically fill November offers if needing cash flow/production slots, but avoid over-committing at current levels in case of further price firmness.
• Monitor Indian importer re-entry and EUR/USD developments, as these may spur additional demand spikes.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Selected Exchanges)

Region/Exchange	Product	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
US FAS (DC)	Carmel/SSR 18/20	6.75 – 6.85	Firm
US FAS (DC)	Carmel/SSR 20/22	6.70 – 6.80	Firm
US FOB (DC)	Nonpareil SSR Organic 27/30	9.35 – 9.45	Firm

• Market momentum favors slow, incremental gains with upside skew if exports continue strong and/or Indian buying resumes in the spot market.