Fig Market Squeeze: Turkish Export Struggles, Payment Woes & Stable Prices

The Turkish fig market finds itself at a crossroads this season, challenged by a unique mix of steady export flows, producer cash crunches, and guarded optimism about future shipments. Despite earlier turmoil with export disruptions, government assurances have quelled much of the logistical unease for the coming year. Still, the real battle is now financial: payment delays and lack of liquidity remain at the forefront, leaving producers uneasy even as markets re-open. The Turkish lira price range for figs (170-200 TRY/kg) has not translated into robust cash movement, with many transactions conducted via checks post-dated for up to four months—increasing financial risk for growers. Last season’s profitability for producers ironically led to exporter losses, generating risk aversion among buyers this year, further tightening funding. With the government stepping in and Turkey’s key position in the global dried fig supply, all eyes are on whether the reopening markets will truly lift producer confidence and unlock cash flow. Meanwhile, international FOB prices from Malatya hold firm, underscoring a market at equilibrium but not advancing. The coming weeks—marked by stable prices and uncertainty about liquidity—will shape the strategic decisions of all market participants.

📈 Fig Prices Snapshot

Fig Type	Specification	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Change	Update Date
Dried Figs	No. 7, lerida	Turkey, Malatya	7.7	7.7	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 6, natural	Turkey, Malatya	7.9	7.9	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 5, natural	Turkey, Malatya	8.0	8.0	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 4, natural	Turkey, Malatya	8.2	8.2	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 3, natural	Turkey, Malatya	8.7	8.7	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 2, natural	Turkey, Malatya	9.2	9.2	0.0%	2025-12-02
Dried Figs	No. 1, natural	Turkey, Malatya	9.7	9.7	0.0%	2025-12-02

Market Sentiment: Neutral, with cautious undertones due to payment issues despite stable FOB price levels.

🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape

• Production: Turkey remains the global leader in dried figs, with output steady but facing liquidity constraints for producers.
• Export Dynamics: Following significant logistical bottlenecks, assurances from the Ministry have improved next season’s export outlook. However, liquidity issues due to long payment terms (checks with 3-4 months maturity) temper market confidence.
• Demand: International demand remains stable but exporter risk aversion is high after losses from returns and weak margins last season.
• Inventories: No abnormal stock build-up reported, but rapid market reopening could pressure available supply should liquidity concerns subside.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Government Policy: Ministry interventions aim to support growers and assure smooth exports for coming seasons.
• Price Structure: Turkish lira prices: 170–200 TRY/kg in the domestic market; International FOB (Malatya): EUR 7.0–9.7/kg for various dried fig grades.
• Cash Flow: The biggest threat is payment risk—most producers await cash as checks mature, causing a freezing of market liquidity.
• Speculation & Positioning: Market participants remain defensive, chasing stability rather than expansion. Exporters are wary after losses—they prefer lower-risk trades or delayed purchases.
• Historical Context: Last year, producers profited and buyers/exporters took losses, which has flipped the appetite for risk in the current season.

⛅ Weather Outlook for Turkish Fig Regions

• Western Turkey (Aydın, İzmir, Malatya): Current weather: mild, no major frost or drought reports. Moderate rainfall and stable temperatures support fig maturation and next season’s crop development.
• Outlook (Next 7 days): Temperatures to remain near average (12-15°C), with light showers. No severe weather risks anticipated. Short-term yield outlook favorable.
• Impact: Continued benign weather maintains crop quality, supporting an optimistic tone for physical supply into 2025.

🌐 Global Position: Production and Trade Comparison

• Major Exporters: Turkey, Iran, Egypt.
• Major Importers: European Union (notably France, Germany, Italy), USA, Russia.
• Turkey’s Share: Turkey’s share of global dried fig exports consistently exceeds 50%, reinforcing its price leadership role.
• Market Comparison: Prices in Turkey and on FOB terms remain in line with historic averages. No significant divergence from global peers reported.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Liquidity risk is the primary challenge—buyers should negotiate for shorter payment terms where possible.
• Stable international FOB prices could offer upside potential if liquidity improves or global demand surprises to the upside.
• Sellers may benefit from structured payment guarantees or factoring to mitigate non-payment risks.
• Exporters should carefully monitor government policy for updates on logistical and export support.
• Weather risks remain minimal in the short term, supporting a steady supply outlook.
• Expect muted price movement in the next week but be vigilant for sudden demand increases as cash resumes circulating.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB Malatya)

Date	No. 6 Natural (EUR/kg)	No. 5 Natural (EUR/kg)	No. 7 Lerida (EUR/kg)
2025-12-03	7.9	8.0	7.7
2025-12-04	7.9	8.0	7.7
2025-12-05	7.9	8.0	7.7

Short-term outlook: Prices are forecast to remain stable, with little movement expected as market sentiment remains cautious but steady.