Rapeseed Market Cools Amid EU Saturation: Price Trends & Outlook

The rapeseed market has entered a period of mild price pressure in recent weeks, responding to the typical seasonal influx of supplies throughout Europe and tepid demand in global oilseed and oil markets. Ukrainian export prices have edged slightly lower as local offer values now stand at 537–545 USD/t CPT port, reflecting a persistent oversupply in the region. Demand from processors inside Ukraine picked up modestly, as plants marginally raised their bid prices to stimulate deliveries, but this was offset by continued weakness in European rapeseed oil values. This dynamic has left market actors watching for signs of renewed demand or a production issue that could break the market’s indecisiveness. The EUR market remains soft, with offers from Ukraine and France aligning below previous months’ highs, signaling that the market is searching for new direction.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Last Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.58	0.58	0.00	Neutral
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.60	0.60	0.00	Neutral
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	0.55	0.00	Weak

• Ukrainian CPT port prices: 537–545 USD/t (~495–503 EUR/t)
• Domestic Ukraine processor demand: 24,000–24,500 UAH/t CPT enterprise (~590–603 EUR/t)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Europe’s rapeseed market remains seasonally saturated, leading to muted export demand for Ukrainian oilseeds.
• Despite slight increases in procurement bids by Ukrainian processors, overall procurement is sluggish, limited by poor rapeseed oil margins in the EU.
• Global rapeseed oil prices are in retreat, weighing on farmgate prices and exporter quotations alike.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and EU production projections remain largely unchanged, with 2024/25 EU rapeseed output seen stable to slightly lower year-on-year as some key regions report mild drought concerns.
• Global ending stocks are adequate, but tight stocks in some Asian importing countries provide medium-term support should weather disrupt supply ahead.
• Speculative funds have reduced their net long positions in rapeseed futures in recent weeks, contributing to a more bearish short-term tone.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent rains have ended a dry spell, improving soil moisture ahead of critical crop development stages. No heat stress anticipated in the next week.
• France: Mild, slightly wetter-than-normal weather forecast; no significant weather threats, favoring steady yield prospects.
• Germany/Poland: Cool and generally favorable, slight delays possible in some late-planted areas but no major risks.

🌐 Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Year-on-Year Trend
EU-27	19.4	2.7	=
Ukraine	4.1	0.5	–
Canada	18.5	2.3	=
Australia	6.1	0.7	–
China (imports)	NA	3.1	+

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Processors: Consider gradual accumulation of stocks as prices remain at seasonal lows, but avoid aggressive forward purchases until demand for oil strengthens.
• Farmers: Hold off on large sales unless cash flow is urgent; upside risk remains if weather turns adverse in Europe in July–August.
• Exporters: Monitor Chinese and Asian import demand closely; any sign of renewed activity could trigger a price rebound.
• Speculators: Cautious stance warranted as the market searches for demand-driven catalysts; option strategies to capture potential volatility may be prudent.

🌦️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Forecast Price Trend (EUR, CPT/FOB)	Direction
Kyiv, UA	0.57 – 0.59	Steady to slightly softer
Odesa, UA	0.59 – 0.60	Steady
Paris, FR	0.54 – 0.56	Weak