Wheat Market in Motion: Black Sea Risks, Global Supply, and Price Trends (Dec 2025)

The wheat market is once again at the intersection of geopolitical volatility and strong global supply. Recent Russian threats following attacks on Black Sea shipping have injected fresh risk premiums into wheat prices, particularly as Moscow threatens to further restrict Ukraine’s maritime access. These developments have triggered financial investors to cover short positions, pushing up prices from recent contract lows. However, this spike may prove short-lived if tensions in the Black Sea ease, as ample harvests in the EU, Argentina, and Australia continue to expand global wheat supplies. Euronext (MATIF) and CBOT prices remain subdued overall, reflecting the reality of robust stocks and a recovering export outlook despite ongoing uncertainty. Algerian wheat tender outcomes, EU export figures, and speculative flows will shape coming weeks as participants weigh risk against the fundamental backdrop of comfortable inventories and benign weather. Stay tuned as we break down the pricing action, supply & demand outlook, and trading recommendations for the wheat complex in this pivotal moment.

📈 Wheat Prices: Major Exchanges Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext MATIF	Dec 25	192.00 EUR/t	+1.00 (+0.52%)	Neutral/Recovery
CBOT	Mar 26	541.25 USc/bu	+0.25 (+0.05%)	Cautiously Positive
ICE Feed Wheat	May 26	172.45 GBP/t	+1.20 (+0.70%)	Firm

Offer	Origin	Specification	Delivery (Incoterm)	Last Price (EUR/kg)
Wheat (FR)	France	Protein min. 11%, 98%	FOB Paris	0.28
Wheat (US, CBOT)	USA	Protein min. 11.5%, 98%	FOB Washington D.C.	0.21
Wheat (UA)	Ukraine	Protein min. 10.5%, 95%	FOB Odesa	0.20

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Black Sea Escalation: Russian naval threats and fresh attacks on merchant shipping have led to short-covering among financial investors and boosted spot prices—risk premium remains elevated but volatile.
• Expanding Global Harvests: Recent upward revisions in EU, Argentina, and Australian output estimates are increasing global stocks, muting further rallies despite geopolitical risks.
• EU Exports Soft but Recovering: EU soft wheat exports reached 9.66m t (-0.48m t YoY as of Nov 30); France remains the leading supplier despite missing reporting data for some weeks.
• Algeria Tender Focus: Algerian buying is drawing interest; French supply may be sidelined due to diplomatic tensions, shifting interest towards Black Sea and South American wheat.
• Speculative Positioning: Recent market lows attracted position closing and modest buying interest, but momentum is tentative amid ample global supply.

📊 Market Fundamentals: Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2025/26 Output (est.)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (est.)
EU	~130m t	~17m t
Russia	~91m t	~17m t
USA	51m t	17m t
Argentina	17.5m t	2m t
Australia	27m t	5m t
Ukraine	22m t	2m t

(Data: USDA/FAS, December 2025 estimates. Minor rounding.)

☁️ Weather & Cropping Outlook

• EU: Mild and wet autumn conditions across France and Germany, supportive for winter wheat establishment.
• Black Sea: Southern Russia and Ukraine reported mostly normal precipitation but frost risk increases by late December.
• Argentina: Recovery from last season’s dryness; yield outlook buoyed by recent rains.
• Australia: Harvest nearly complete, yields exceeding expectations in key regions.
• US Plains: Soil moisture at multi-year highs, early winter wheat development is promising.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For producers: Consider incremental forward sales into strength, especially on Black Sea-related price surges.
• For exporters: Monitor Algerian and North African demand dynamics; anticipate shifting competitive landscape favoring South American wheat.
• For importers: Periods of volatility may offer short-term buying opportunities, but the overall tone remains supply heavy.
• For traders: Elevated geopolitical risk suggests caution with short exposure; basis plays and calendar spreads favored over directional bets.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Direction	Price Range (Local Currency)
Euronext MATIF	Dec 25	Sideways-to-Slightly Higher	190–194 EUR/t
CBOT	Mar 26	Stable to Slightly Higher	540–545 USc/bu
ICE Feed Wheat	May 26	Firm	171–174 GBP/t

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