Soya Market Outlook: Export Challenges and Global Price Pressures Shape Trade Flows

The global Soya market currently finds itself at a pivotal crossroads, shaped by shifting trade relationships, harvest expectations, and evolving demand patterns. While plant oil prices, including palm and rapeseed oil, have recently supported oilseed complex values globally, Soya prices remain pressured by weak U.S. export demand and the prospect of a record Brazilian harvest. Midstream commodity traders note that Chinese buyers are turning decisively to Brazil, taking advantage of newly harvested, competitively priced beans and increased tariffs on U.S. Soya. This dovetails with recent USDA reports showing no new U.S.-to-China Soya sales, raising concerns about U.S. export competitiveness as the South American season ramps up.

Meanwhile, ongoing geo-political tensions in the Black Sea region threaten the flow of sunflower oil and oilseeds, another factor influencing general oilseed market sentiment. In the EU, import data reveals a marked drop in soybean and meal imports versus last season – suggesting both lower feed demand and an ongoing pivot towards alternative origins. The interplay between these factors, coupled with traders’ eyes on upcoming Canadian crop estimates and record Malaysian palm oil prices, underscores the complexity and volatility currently facing Soya market participants.

📈 Prices

Key Exchange Prices (as of December 3, 2025)

Contract	CBOT Soybeans (US-Cent/bu)	CBOT Soymeal (USD/Short ton)	CBOT Soyoil (US-Cent/lb)	DCE Soybeans (CNY/t)
Nearby (Jan 26)	1,128.00	312.60	52.42	4,127.00
March 26	1,137.50	317.80	52.92	4,140.00
May 26	1,146.75	323.20	53.25	4,169.00

Spot FOB Wholesale Prices (per kg, last update Nov 29, 2025)

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)
USA (Washington D.C.)	No. 2	0.42
India (New Delhi)	Sortex Clean	0.80
Ukraine (Odesa)	Standard	0.34
China (Beijing)	Yellow, organic, 99.8%	0.79
China (Beijing)	Yellow, 99.5%	0.70

Market Sentiment

• CBOT Soybeans: Weak, pressured by Brazil’s record crop and poor U.S. export activity.
• DCE Soybeans: Mildly firm, tracking physical demand and slight domestic restocking.
• Soyoil Complex: Mixed to pressured after gains in vegetable oils, now consolidating.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Exports: No new Chinese purchases reported; China sources from Brazil due to lower costs and tariff incentives.
• Brazil Harvest: Early harvest begins January, record output likely to exceed 160 Mt (million tonnes), adding significant export supply to the global market.
• EU Imports: Soybean imports YTD at 4.97 Mt (down 14% y/y), soymeal at 7.46 Mt (down 10%), reflecting ongoing feed demand weakness and trade redirection.
• Black Sea Tensions: Escalation threatens regional sunflower oil/seed exports, supporting overall oilseed prices, but direct Soya flows from the region are minor.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain net short Soya futures on CBOT as market eyes large Southern Hemisphere supplies.

📊 Fundamentals

Country	Production 2025/26 (Mt)	Stocks (End 2025, Mt)	Trend
Brazil	~160*	29	↑ Record crop, expanding exports
USA	~112	8	↓ Declining exports, inventories build
Argentina	~52	7	↓ Below average, tighter crush margins
China (Import)	n/a	~24	– Imports stable, focus on Brazil origin
EU (Import)	n/a	n/a	– Lower imports, feed demand sluggish

*Brazilian harvest expectations; subject to weather realization.

🌦️ Weather & Outlook

• Brazil: Favorable rains in major regions (Mato Grosso, Paraná) support yield potential; small delays possible in the south due to above-average wetness. Early yields look robust if weather remains supportive.
• Argentina: Recent precipitation has boosted soil moisture, but pockets of dryness persist in the northwest. Near-term forecasts call for near-average rainfall.
• USA: Offseason maintenance, no immediate weather threats. Focus will shift to spring planting outlooks in Q1 2026.
• China: Weather mostly irrelevant for import volumes, but domestic crush margins remain pressured by lower demand growth.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Brazilian weather for final yield determination—early harvest results in January may add further supply pressure.
• Watch for any shift in Chinese demand back to U.S. beans, which is unlikely barring a major CBOT price correction or policy shift.
• CBOT Soya futures could drift lower as the Brazilian supply weighs on global bids—hedgers can consider scaled sales into rallies.
• Importers should actively source Brazilian or Ukrainian supply where premiums are lowest.
• Monitor Black Sea tensions; while not a direct Soya supply axis, further escalation can support the broader vegetable oil complex and ripple into Soya oil valuations.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price	3-Day Outlook	Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans (Jan 26)	1,128 US-Cent/bu	1,120–1,135	Down/Bearish bias
DCE Soybeans (Jan 26)	4,127 CNY/t	4,110–4,150	Stable/Neutral
FOB Ukraine	0.34 EUR/kg	0.33–0.35	Stable/Soft
FOB USA	0.42 EUR/kg	0.41–0.43	Soft/Competitive

Key Watch: Volume flows from Brazil and weather volatility will be critical swing factors for market direction in the coming weeks.