Barley Market Update: Global Export Surge, Firm EU Supply & Fresh Argentine Incentives

The barley market has entered a period of revitalized dynamics, marked by notable export increases, productive government interventions, and resilient fundamentals across key origins. Despite global grain markets being overshadowed by record wheat harvests, barley’s own supply-demand balance has tightened, chiefly thanks to robust trade and policy shifts. Argentina’s government, for instance, just reduced export tariffs on barley from 9.5% to 7.5%, boosting profitability for barley exporters after a record harvest—a measure that arrives as international demand remains brisk, especially for livestock feed in Asia and North Africa. In the European Union, barley exports climbed to 4.76 million tonnes this season so far, up 131% from the previous year’s period, underscoring the bloc’s strengthened role in global trade. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s competitive FOB and FCA offers reflect aggressive pricing against a backdrop of stable output. Futures prices on the SFE for feed barley remain steady with modest upticks, suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment among traders. Weather continues to play a pivotal role: with forecasts indicating generally favorable conditions in the Black Sea and EU regions, yield outlooks are steady, but concerns persist over Australia, where variable rainfall patterns could impact upcoming harvest quality and logistics. Overall, the barley market stands at the crossroads of strengthened global trade, adaptive policy, and vigilant focus on crop development short-term, leaving both buyers and sellers alert for potential rapid shifts.

📈 Barley Prices – Key Exchanges and Physical Markets

Exchange / Market	Contract / Grade	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE (Sydney)	Feed Barley Jan 2026	300.00	0.00 (0%)	Neutral
SFE (Sydney)	Feed Barley Mar 2026	304.00	+4.00 (+1.32%)	Firming
SFE (Sydney)	Feed Barley May-Jul 2026	314.00	+4.00 (+1.27%)	Firming
UA (Odesa, FOB)	Barley Seeds – Cattle Feed	0.17	-0.01	Weak
UA (Kyiv, FCA)	Feed Grade, 98%, 14% moist.	0.23	-0.01	Weak
UA (Odesa, FCA)	Feed Grade, 98%, 14% moist.	0.25	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government Incentives: Argentina’s export tax cut boosts barley trade competitiveness and signals expectations for strong export flows following a record harvest.
• EU Barley Exports: The EU exported 4.76 million tonnes this season (+131% YoY), reflecting strong demand, especially from Mediterranean and Asian buyers.
• Ukraine: Continued competitive offers as harvest progression and logistics hold steady despite regional risks.
• Speculator Positioning: Large funds in wheat trimmed net short positions, signaling stabilizing broader grains sentiment, yet still cautious.
• Linked Grain Markets: Higher wheat supply tempers upward price momentum but supports feed grain demand (including barley) via favorable pricing spreads.

📊 Market Fundamentals

Country/Region	Latest Production (Mt, 2025/26)	Global Export Share	Remarks
EU	~54	Top	Strong pace, high exports YTD
Ukraine	~5.7	Significant	Pricing advantage, stable logistics
Russia	~21	Major	Export quota risks ongoing
Argentina	Up sharply	Emerging	Government actively supporting
Australia	Variable	Key East Asian supply	Weather volatility, freight strength

🌦️ Weather Outlook – Key Barley Regions

• EU (France, Germany, Baltics): Mild winter so far, ground moisture positive; risk of cold snap remains but yield outlook stable.
• Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia): Precipitation above seasonal averages, boosting early root development. No major frost threats detected in short-term forecasts.
• Australia: Harvest underway; eastern regions face patchy rainfall and some delays; yield variability likely but not extreme.
• Argentina: Near-ideal finishing weather; harvest logistics fully operational.

📆 Barley Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Expect active export markets from Argentina and EU until Q2 2026 as new crop supplies support competitive pricing.
• Ukrainian barley offers remain price-aggressive—attractive for Middle Eastern and Asian buyers.
• Watch for potential supply disruptions in Australia from unseasonable rains in coming weeks.
• Monitor wheat-barley feed spreads: persistent wheat supply overhang could dampen any sharp barley rally.
• Speculators may start rebuilding short positions if export pace or weather issues deteriorate in early 2026.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Current Closing	3-Day Outlook	Trend
SFE Feed Barley Jan 2026	300.00 EUR/t	299 – 303 EUR/t	Stable to slightly firm
UA FOB Odesa	0.17 EUR/kg	0.16 – 0.18 EUR/kg	Soft to steady
UA FCA Kyiv/Odesa	0.23 – 0.25 EUR/kg	0.22 – 0.25 EUR/kg	Slightly weaker