Oat Markets Firm Up: Modest Gains Amid Thin Volumes, Hybrid Weather Risks

The global oat market is showing subdued but steady strength, reflecting cautious optimism among traders. Recent sessions on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) have delivered modest price advances, with contracts from December 2025 through July 2028 generally climbing by 0.23–0.43%, though liquidity remains notably thin. This firming comes against a backdrop of persistent supply-side uncertainty from key historic producers—Canada, Russia, and the EU—where production prospects are highly sensitive to spring and early summer weather. Meanwhile, Ukrainian oats, offered at competitive levels, illustrate ongoing Black Sea export flows despite regional uncertainties. In Europe, feed oat prices have stabilized, helped by calm currency markets and a muted feed demand outlook as alternative grains retain price competitiveness. Movement in oats differs notably from recent volatility seen in wheat or corn. Looking ahead, short-term weather risks and mid-term acreage decisions are set to dictate price direction, with speculative interest low but open interest indicating potential for sharp moves should market catalysts emerge.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Contract	Last Close (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change	Volume	Open Interest	Sentiment
Dec 25	288.75	+0.43%	1	1	Neutral/Firm
Mar 26	301.00	+0.08%	16	3609	Stable
May 26	308.25	+0.24%	24	444	Stable
Jul 26	313.75	+0.24%	6	18	Stable

 

Product	Origin	Location	Purity	Delivery	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date
Oat (Feed)	UA	Odesa	98%	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-12-04

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US and Canadian oat acreage is projected to remain flat, with marginal yield improvements expected due to favorable planting conditions but ongoing drought risk in the Northern Plains.
• Ukraine maintains export competitiveness, with stable output and robust logistics from Odesa, but Black Sea volatility remains a risk factor.
• EU oat stocks have normalized after a volatile 2023, due to good harvests in Scandinavia and the Baltics, dampening imports from overseas.
• Global oat demand is sluggish but steady, buoyed by oat-based food trends and consistent feed demand in Europe and Asia.
• Speculative positioning in oats remains very light; open interest is concentrated in early 2026 contracts, suggesting commercial interests are dominant.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventory Snapshot

• Global Production (2024/25): ~24-25 million metric tons (FAO/USDA preliminary)
• Major Exporters: Canada (~3.5m tons), EU (~7.7m tons, mainly from Finland and Scandinavia), Russia (~4.2m tons), Australia (~1.3m tons)
• Major Importers: USA, China, Japan, Germany
• End Stocks, Global: Slight increase expected with flat demand and good European crop

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Prairie Canada & N. US: Recent forecasts show near-average precipitation with slight above-normal temperatures—supportive for early emergence but a risk if May-June turns dry.
• Ukraine: Mild winter outlook; moist soils bode well for spring growth, assuming Black Sea security externalities do not escalate.
• Scandinavia & Baltic States: Cool and wet conditions; good for planting but may delay crop development. Low risk of drought at present.

📌 Key Insights & Trading Recommendations

• Buy dips on evidence of June drought in Prairie Canada or US.
• Sellers: Lock in forward prices on harvest rallies, especially for EU and UA origins where logistics are secure.
• Monitor Black Sea developments—any escalation can drive risk premiums.
• Short-term: Range-trading likely, given thin trading and balanced fundamentals.
• Medium-term: Watch for USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports (late April–early June) for lead indicators of price direction.

📆 3-Day Oat Price Forecast (CBoT & Euronext)

Exchange	Contract	Current (US-Cent/bu)	3-Day Forecast	Market Risk
CBoT	Dec 25	288.75	285–292	Low/Range-bound
CBoT	Mar 26	301.00	299–304	Low/Range-bound
Euronext	(latest)	—	No oats contract	—