Turkish Dried Fig Prices Surge: Drought, Frost, and Year-End Pause Shape the Market

Turkish dried fig markets have entered a period of heightened volatility, driven by a potent mix of weather-related disruptions and end-of-year export slowdowns. Over the last week, prices continued their upward trajectory as severe drought and frost cut into the 2024/2025 crop yield. The raw material price reached a remarkable 1,500 TL/KG – an increase that reflects not only constrained supply but also a wider agricultural trend of weather-induced volatility. However, despite the bullish price action, export momentum has tapered off as holidays approach. European buyers are largely on the sidelines, opting to resume major purchasing after the break. As a result, last week’s reported export prices are expected to stay valid at least until the year’s end. With the Turkish region of Malatya dominating supply and all offers denominated FOB in EUR, navigating this period requires close attention to weather patterns and shifting global demand. If these tight fundamentals persist into the new year, we could witness continued firmness or even further price escalation. Nevertheless, the temporary lull in export activity brings a mixed short-term outlook. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of this week’s market landscape – with data, analysis, and a forecast for the days ahead.

📈 Prices: Key Dried Fig Offers (Malatya, Turkey, FOB – EUR)

Type	Quality	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Update Date
Figs dried	No. 7, Lerida	7.70	7.70	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 6, Natural	7.90	7.90	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 5, Natural	8.00	8.00	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 4, Natural	8.20	8.20	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 3, Natural	8.70	8.70	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 2, Natural	9.20	9.20	0.00	2025-12-09
Figs dried	No. 1, Natural	9.70	9.70	0.00	2025-12-09

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Weather Disruptions: Drought and frost in key Turkish fig regions have significantly reduced supply, tightening the spot and forward markets.
• Raw Material Spike: Raw fig prices reached 1,500 TL/KG, reflecting scarcity and strong buying interest from processors and exporters.
• Year-End Export Lull: Upcoming long holidays and the approach of year’s end have slowed new export contracts. Buyers, especially in Europe, are largely in wait-and-see mode until post-holidays.
• Stable Export Prices: Exporters report that last week’s prices are being held steady until the year closes, suggesting limited volatility in the near term.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Global Context

• Turkey’s Dominance: Turkey remains the primary global exporter for dried figs, especially the Malatya region. Quality and grading (natural vs. lerida, size 1–7) continue to drive marginal price differences.
• Inventory Position: The combination of poor weather and reduced raw material availability is expected to significantly lower Turkish end-of-season stocks compared to last year.
• Competitive Origins: Limited competition from other exporters (e.g. Iran, Spain) means Turkey’s price trend heavily influences global trade flows.

Country	2023-24 Prod. (est, 1,000t)	Stocks (1,000t)
Turkey	300	40*
Iran	75	10*
Spain	18	3*
Others	22	5*

*Estimates based on current season’s weather+trade news.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Malatya & Aegean Regions: Recent reports highlight ongoing drought conditions and risk of late frosts into the next bloom cycle.
• Forecast: Short-term weather models for central/ eastern Turkey indicate continued sparsity of rainfall and below-average nighttime lows. This sustains supply-side risks well into early 2025.
• Yield Impact: The affected trees are likely to produce smaller, less abundant fruit, underpinning spot and forward price firmness for grades 1–7.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 For Exporters: Maintain offers at current prices if possible, as buyers are not aggressive ahead of the holidays but could return rapidly in January with restocking demand.
• 📌 Buyers: Consider securing volumes now if quality and delivery before year-end are critical, since January offers may reflect further weather-driven tightness.
• 📌 Traders: Monitor local weather and raw material market signals closely for signs of supply normalization or further stress. Immediate speculative moves not recommended due to unchanged export pricing for now.
• 📌 Watch: European demand post-holidays remains the key wildcard. Any surge could trigger a sharp move in offers upward.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR, Malatya FOB)

Type	Grade	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days	Sentiment
Figs dried	No. 5, Natural	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.05	Firm to slightly bullish
Figs dried	No. 7, Lerida	7.70	7.70	7.75	7.75	Stable to firm
Figs dried	No. 1, Natural	9.70	9.70	9.75	9.75	Upward bias