Rapeseed Market Rallies on Policy Shifts and Processing Demand: Outlook and Drivers

The rapeseed market is navigating a complex environment shaped by legislative changes, demand for biofuels, and robust oilseed processing. This week, Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed futures firmed after the German government’s THG Quota Act cleared the way for ongoing use of plant oils as transport fuels. By scaling back the double-counting for fuels from waste streams—a mechanism that had previously displaced rapeseed oil on the biodiesel market—the policy move is expected to bolster rapeseed demand, though material effects may only unfold from 2027 onward. Meanwhile, processing figures from North America also point to resilient oilseed demand: U.S. soybean crush hit new highs, and canola futures on ICE Canada retraced from earlier losses, despite ongoing export concerns and competition.

On the fundamental side, short-term exchange prices for rapeseed show relative firmness, with most contracts posting little change week-on-week, yet market optimism is capped by cautious macroeconomic sentiment and flat spot trade. Pressure from lagging exports—particularly to China—and uncertainty over new-crop European yields persist, but expanding biofuel quotas and robust crush margins provide a bullish undertone. Weather outlooks in key producing regions remain favorable, supporting stable supply prospects.

Rapeseed’s industrial value remains key: The EU’s move to guarantee THG quotas until 2040 with a gradual increase is an anchor for investment, though with a cap on competing food and feedstock use. Market participants are advised to focus on the 2026 and beyond crop business, as regulatory clarity strengthens risk management and price discovery.

📈 Prices: Current Futures & Physical Market

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€476.50/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€469.75/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 26	€454.75/t	0.00%	Neutral
ICE Canada	Jan 26	CAD 615.40/t	-0.73%	Bearish
ICE Canada	Mar 26	CAD 626.80/t	-0.80%	Bearish

Origin	Description	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price
France	Rape seeds	Paris	0.55	0.55
Ukraine	Rape seeds, 42% min oil, 98% purity	Kyiv	0.58	0.58
Ukraine	Rape seeds, 42% min oil, 98% purity	Odesa	0.60	0.60

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• EU Biofuel Legislation: Policy clarity expected to increase long-term rapeseed oil demand, mainly impacting post-2027 crop years.
• Export Dynamics: Weak Chinese demand and stagnant export flow keep a lid on bullish momentum, but recent USDA data suggests robust crush and stable OI (open interest) in US oilseeds.
• Inventory Trends: Global vegetable oil stocks remain adequate, but tightness could manifest if global crush rates stay high and policy further restricts waste-oil imports.

📊 Fundamental Data Overview

• Open Interest MATIF (Feb 26): 70,331 contracts (high liquidity supports price stability)
• EU THG Quota: Stepped up to 59% by 2040 (currently at 10.6%)—regulatory certainty for biofuel producers
• US Soybean Oil Stocks: 1.781 billion lbs (up 11.9% y/y), record October crush volume
• Speculative Positioning (CBOT Soybeans): 194,443 net long (+15,760 w/w)—potential spillover for oilseeds complex

☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Conditions

• Western Europe: Mild conditions continue, with precipitation adequate for winter crops. Soil moisture supports establishment but demands monitoring for disease pressure as temperatures rise.
• Ukraine: Post-harvest soil improvement and favorable moisture bode well for 2026 crop, barring unforeseen spring events.
• Canada: Cold snap expected mid-December; winterkill risk remains low at current snow cover.

🌐 Production & Stocks: Key Country Comparison

Country	23/24 Output (Mt)	23/24 Stocks (Mt)	24/25 Outlook
EU-27	18.8	2.6	Stable
Ukraine	4.1	0.7	Moderate increase expected
Canada	19.8	2.2	Steady to up

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor legislative timelines and biofuel policy implementation; focus on new-crop (2026) hedging opportunities.
• Short-term, price momentum is limited; wait for export pickup or unexpected weather disruptions for entries.
• Physical market: Buyers should continue hand-to-mouth procurement; sellers may consider scaling up offers on any spikes tied to biofuel news.
• Track open interest in Euronext and ICE Canola for early signs of fund repositioning.
• Watch USDA and EU Commission for near-term export and inventory signals.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• MATIF Feb 26: €474–€478/t (steady/neutral)
• ICE Canola Jan 26: CAD 612–625/t (mild downside pressure)
• Physical Paris (FR): €0.54–€0.56/kg (flat, slow trade)
• Physical Ukraine (Kyiv/Odesa): €0.57–€0.61/kg (unchanged)