Barley Market Analysis: Stable Prices, Strong Global Exports & Favorable Policy Shifts

The barley market stands at a crossroads as international output and policy developments set the tone for the coming months. Current contract prices for feed barley on SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) remain steady, reflecting a market that has already absorbed the anticipated increases in global grain supply. The recent USDA WADSE report revised global wheat output to a record 837.8 million tons for 2025/26, a substantial jump buoyed by record harvests in Canada, Argentina, Russia, the EU, and Australia. The knock-on effect is significant for barley, both due to interconnected feed grain demand and competitive export pressures.

Crucially, Argentina’s decision to lower export taxes on barley from 9.5% to 7.5% underscores a further boost for international supply, which could temper any upward momentum in prices. At the same time, EU barley exports have surged, up 131% year-on-year, driven by aggressive shipments from France, Romania, and Germany despite overall EU soft wheat exports dipping slightly.

As speculative short positions in wheat are trimmed and world weather patterns remain generally favorable, barley prices are likely to remain rangebound absent a major weather disruption. Buyers and sellers should watch for international trade flows and competitive dynamics, especially with Australia and Argentina poised for strong campaign sales. Below, find direct offer links to current barley lots for prompt purchasing opportunities.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Market	Contract Month	Close Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
SFE (Feed Barley)	Jan 26	300.00	0.00%	AUD/t	Stable
SFE (Feed Barley)	Mar 26	304.00	0.00%	AUD/t	Stable
SFE (Feed Barley)	May-Jul-Sep-Nov 26	314.00	0.00%	AUD/t	Stable
SFE (Feed Barley)	Jan 27-Jan 28	327.00	0.00%	AUD/t	Stable
UA Odesa	Spot	0.17	-0.01	EUR/kg	Bearish
UA Kyiv	Spot	0.23	-0.01	EUR/kg	Bearish
UA Odesa	Spot	0.25	0.00	EUR/kg	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Forces

• Global grain output: USDA expects a record wheat crop (837.8m tons), increasing feed grain competition and pressuring barley prices.
• Policy support: Argentine barley gets a lift from reduced export taxes (now 7.5%), anticipated to drive higher global exports.
• EU market share: EU barley exports spiked by 131% Y/Y to 4.76 million tons, led by France and Romania.
• Speculative activity: CFTC data: funds reduced net short positions in wheat, signaling moderately less bearishness across grains.
• Feed demand: World feed grain demand continues upward as livestock sectors recover, mainly in Asia and North Africa.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Global Stocks: Wheat end stocks seen rising to 274.9m tons; while barley stocks mirror this trend, feed usage growth may eventually cap inventories.
• Production hot spots: Increased barley acreage reported in Canada, Australia, Russia, and the EU to capitalize on higher world feed demand.
• Export Competition: With Australia and Argentina set for bumper crops and easier export terms, global barley flows will intensify competition, particularly into Asia and MENA.

Country/Region	Latest Barley Export	YoY Change
EU-27	4.76 million t	+131%
Argentina	Strong increase expected	New record projected
Australia	Rising	New record projected
Ukraine	Stable	Nominal YoY change

🌦️ Weather Watch & Yield Prospects

• Australia: Near-average rainfall this season in major barley regions (Western Australia, South Australia), supporting a robust harvest.
• Argentina: Mild El Niño effects bringing favorable soil moisture; good outlook for crop finishing and export volumes.
• Black Sea: Moderate winter, adequate precipitation—no major risks at this stage for spring barley planting.

📆 Barley Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Expect sideways price action into Q1 2026—ample global supply and high export competition limit upside.
• Monitor ocean freight developments: persistent Red Sea instability could redirect grain flows and periodically lift Black Sea prices.
• Buyers: Secure Q1-Q2 2026 needs on recent dips, especially for EU and MENA destinations benefiting from abundant supply.
• Producers: Consider incremental selling—carry in forward contracts (SFE) supports holding some stock for later delivery, but upside is capped by large world crops.
• Watch currency developments: EUR/AUD volatility could affect margins for intercontinental traders.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Date	Forecast Price	Trend	Currency
SFE (Feed Barley)	12-13 Dec	300–314	Stable	AUD/t
Ukraine (FOB/FCA)	12-13 Dec	0.17–0.25	Softer	EUR/kg
EU (export)	12-13 Dec	210–225	Stable to Soft	EUR/t (indicative)

Note: Weather and policy shifts remain the largest short-term catalysts for price volatility. Observe Australian and Argentine export sales for signals of momentum change. For detailed, granular price moves and more offers, see below.