Wheat Market: Ukraine’s Price Pressures & Global Outlook as Weather Worries Loom

The global wheat market remains in a precarious balance as price movements in Ukraine—one of the world’s key wheat exporters—send mixed signals to market participants. Last week, Ukrainian wheat prices edged slightly lower, constrained mostly inside their previous trading range. This subtle decline is shaped not only by global macroeconomic factors but also by distinctly regional concerns. The ongoing conflict continues to disrupt port infrastructure, elevating logistics costs and sustaining relatively high demand from domestic processors. At the same time, a modest dip in traders’ demand has put downward pressure on export prices, despite the underlying tensions in supply chains.

Demand prices for milling and feed wheat in Ukraine currently stand between 9800-10800 UAH/t and 9000-10100 UAH/t CPT, respectively. At Ukrainian ports, prices retraced by $3-4/ton, settling within the $212-220/ton and $204-212/ton CPT-port ranges. This adjustment reflects an environment of persistent instability, shaped by constant Russian shelling limiting export activities, but also indicates that traders see some short-term oversupply or shifting demand.

Globally, wheat offers at key exchanges also hint at a softening trend, with moderate declines on the CBOT and Euronext. However, with fundamentals like lower ending stocks in certain regions, fluctuating speculative positions, and weather uncertainties (notably dry conditions forecast for sections of the US and Black Sea regions), the price trajectory remains anything but straightforward.

📈 Prices – Latest Wheat Market Exchange Overview

Exchange	Type/Grade	Location	Delivery	Closing Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Min. 11.5% Protein	Washington D.C., US	FOB	0.20	-4.8	Bearish
Euronext	Min. 11.0% Protein	Paris, FR	FOB	0.27	-3.6	Soft Bearish
Ukraine	Min. 12.5% Protein	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20	-4.8	Bearish
Ukraine	Min. 11.0% Protein	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.19	0.0	Stable
Ukraine	Min. 9.5% Protein	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.22	0.0	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: The latest USDA WASDE report indicates mixed global supply, with US stocks projected lower but slight increases in major exporters’ output outside Russia.
• Acreage & Harvest Progress: US winter wheat conditions are stable but below the 5-year average. Plantings in the EU are near completion, but dryness in key regions could curb yields.
• Ukraine Export Dynamics: High domestic processing demand, logistical challenges, and Russian attacks on Black Sea ports all sustain a floor for Ukrainian wheat prices, even as export demand wanes.
• Speculative Positioning: Net-short positions by managed money on major futures exchanges have increased slightly, reflecting bearish short-term sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals – Production & Inventories Comparison

Country/Region	2024 Output (Mt)	Stock-to-Use Ratio (%)	Key Insights
Russia	86	21	Moderate stocks, risk if weather deteriorates
Ukraine	21	11	Stocks pressured by war/logistics
EU	129	13	Dryness curbing some yield potential
US	49	14	Stocks at multi-year lows
China	137	39	Large holding, not exportable

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact Analysis

• Black Sea Region: Forecasts indicate periods of below-average precipitation and continued risks of frost in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, which could cap yields.
• US Plains: Drought remains entrenched in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, limiting recovery in key winter wheat areas.
• Europe: Northwest Europe expecting heavier rains, possibly beneficial, but Southeast (including Romania and Bulgaria) is trending drier, a concern for yield formation as crops approach key stages.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term risk skewed to further downside in Ukraine export values due to soft trader purchasing—watch for renewed buying on further price drops.
• Monitor US wheat conditions: further weather deterioration could spark rallies.
• European traders should watch Southeast Europe for weather reversals; sustained dryness will cut potential yields.
• Ukraine domestic processors may face higher basis bids if export logistics worsen.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Location	Direction	Forecast Price (€)	Comment
CBOT	↘️	0.19-0.20	Mild continued downward pressure, bearish sentiment
Euronext	↘️	0.26-0.27	Bearish bias, weather closely watched
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	→	0.19-0.20	Stable to soft, support from processors & logistics risks