Beans Market Outlook: Stable Prices, Cautious Trading and Steady Demand

The beans market continues to maintain a stable tone, with market participants noting subdued enthusiasm for new crop procurement and inventory build-up among producers and traders. Specifically, red adzuki beans (红小豆) have faced downward price pressures driven by cost dynamics and inventory liquidation, making it challenging for any near-term price recovery. Despite low prices, underlying demand for procurement and stockbuilding remains among traders and processors over the medium term. Supply-demand fundamentals have shown little meaningful change, with stable pricing prevailing. On the farm side, many holders are reluctant to sell at lower rates, which, alongside traders’ gross grain costs, helps support prices. End-user demand for beans, while marginally better, has yet to influence price movements. Current expectations are for bean prices to remain broadly stable given these offsetting factors.

📈 Prices: Latest Global Market Snapshots

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Close Price (EUR/MT)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.64	+0.04	Steady/Firm
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.45	+0.01	Steady
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	1.16	-0.06	Softening
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	2.78	-0.22	Weak
Kidney beans	Large, white	CN	Beijing	2.73	-0.14	Weak
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0mm+	CN	Beijing	1.30	-0.03	Stable
Adzuki beans	Red, 5.0mm+	CN	Beijing	1.22	-0.03	Stable
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	1.37	-0.02	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Procurement from key producing regions, like China, remains cautious with inventory build-up only moderate.
• Chinese farmers demonstrate low willingness to sell at current low prices, providing a price floor for bean varieties such as adzuki and kidney beans.
• Traders are focused on consuming existing stocks and are hesitant to expand inventories without stronger price incentives.
• There is a modest improvement in bean end-use demand, but it hasn’t been sufficient to move the market higher.
• Current global stocks are considered adequate; no supply shocks are anticipated in the near term.

📊 Fundamentals and Market Drivers

• USDA and regional (China) reports continue to signal stable production and manageable stock levels for most types of beans.
• No recent changes in import/export policies or major speculative activity reported for key players.
• Price support coming mainly from holding costs and farmers’ reluctance to sell at low prices.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Latest meteorological data for China’s bean-producing provinces indicate normal temperature and rainfall patterns over the coming week, supporting healthy crop prospects.
• No significant adverse weather events or drought stress are expected in major producing belts.
• South America: Brazil also sees favorable weather with no major anomalies in bean-growing states.

🌐 International Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024 Production (Estimated, ‘000 MT)	2024 Ending Stocks (Estimated, ‘000 MT)	2023/24 Y-o-Y Change (%)
China	6,500	1,000	-1
Brazil	3,600	500	0
India	5,000	1,200	<0
Global (aggregate)	29,000	3,900	-1

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 💡 Short-Term: Expect prices to remain stable across most categories; limited risk of downside.
• 💡 Procurement: Buyers may wish to cover near-term needs but avoid building large stocks unless demand visibility improves.
• 💡 Producers: Farmers are advised to wait for more favorable prices if able to store inventory at low cost.
• 💡 Long-Term: Watch for potential build-up in demand as we move into the winter and spring consumption periods, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, indicative, key markets)

Product	Region	11 Dec	12 Dec	13 Dec	Sentiment
Mung beans (organic)	Beijing	1.64 EUR	1.64 EUR	1.64 EUR	Stable
Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	Beijing	1.16 EUR	1.15 EUR	1.15 EUR	Slightly Weak
Adzuki beans (red, organic, 5.0mm up)	Beijing	1.30 EUR	1.30 EUR	1.29 EUR	Stable