Millet Market Holds Steady as Farmer Reluctance Supports Prices – Outlook & Data

This week, the global millet market finds itself at a crossroads. Despite mild improvement in sales from some rice mills, the broader sentiment remains one of caution and stability. Most Chinese processors maintain sufficient reserves and show little urgency to restock, paralleling subdued trading volumes from grain merchants. Fixed contracts are rare and spot demand is the prevailing theme, while exporters continue to see weak momentum in outward shipments. At the farmer level, there is a notable reluctance to sell millet at low prices, reinforcing price stability in domestic markets. Earlier procurement of cheap raw millet by some mills has satisfied short-term needs, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. Export volumes have not picked up, with most participants holding inventory rather than actively seeking new sources. With weather patterns presently supportive but the market facing both supply sufficiency and demand-side hesitancy, the outlook remains cautiously stable. Added to this, weather conditions in key regions and the upcoming Chinese lunar festivities may affect both supply pipelines and buying activity in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product	Purity	Type	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Millet seeds	–	hulled, yellow	FOB Odesa	0.20	0.00	Neutral/Stable
Ukraine	Millet seeds	98%	inshell, yellow	FCA Odesa	0.34	0.00	Neutral/Stable
Ukraine	Millet kernels	99%	hulled, yellow (organic)	FCA Odesa	1.20	0.00	Firm/Organic Premium
Ukraine	Millet kernels	98%	hulled, yellow	FCA Odesa	0.44	0.00	Stable
China	Millet kernels	99.90%	hulled, yellow (organic)	FOB Beijing	0.82	-0.02	Slightly Weakening
China	Millet kernels	99.95%	hulled, yellow	FOB Beijing	0.72	-0.02	Slightly Weakening
Poland	Millet seeds	98%	raw, yellow	FCA Kiełczygłow	0.46	+0.10	Uptrend
Poland	Millet seeds	99.95%	hulled, yellow	FCA Kiełczygłow	0.75	+0.14	Uptrend

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chinese mills have ample millet inventories; restocking is slow, with most traders meeting only immediate demand.
• Farmers are not motivated to sell at current price levels, supporting a price floor in China and elsewhere.
• Export activity from major origins remains subdued, with little change seen week-to-week for both volumes and broader buying interest.
• Spot purchases dominate trade. Fixed-term contracts are rare, reflecting overall market caution and a preference for short-term flexibility.
• Organic millet from Ukraine and China commands a premium, though demand here is stable rather than buoyant.

📊 Fundamentals

• Farmers’ low selling motivation, ample processor stocks, and tepid export demand combine to maintain market stability.
• The price differential between standard and organic millet remains sizeable, reflecting relatively inelastic demand for organic certifications.
• Ukrainian and Polish prices have risen for higher-purity or organic types, while basic grades are mostly flat.
• Seasonal factors, including the approaching Chinese Lunar New Year, may influence local trading and processing activity in the near term.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Northern China: Dry conditions persist but temperatures are seasonally mild; no adverse impact expected on post-harvest stocks or spring fieldwork.
• Ukraine: Wetter than average, but below freezing likely to protect dormant fields; upcoming spring moisture could aid new plantings.
• Poland: Stable weather; recent rainfall has improved soil moisture but is not expected to affect stored millet.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• China: Largest producer and consumer; stocks are high, exports moderate.
• Ukraine: Significant exporter; inventory levels stable, with slight increase in organic milling interest.
• India, Nigeria, Russia: Also key global producers; market impact limited this week due to seasonal quietness.

📌 Key Market Drivers

• Farmer reluctance to sell at current prices acts as a price floor.
• Lack of export growth limits potential for price rallies, but ample inventories cap downside.
• Organic millet premiums likely to persist into early 2026 based on current demand.
• No major weather threats to stored stocks or logistics in any producer region.
• Trader sentiment is neutral; speculative activity is low.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3-Day Forecast

• For buyers: Consider spot procurement; fixed forward contracts not widely available.
• For sellers: Organic product premiums can be realized, but bulk sales best achieved on spot.
• For processors: Maintain current inventory strategies; no urgent need to rebuild stocks.
• For exporters: Continue monitoring end-user demand; upside appears limited but no pressure to cut prices.

Origin	Product	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
Ukraine	Millet seeds hulled	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20
China	Millet kernels, organic	0.82	0.82	0.82	0.81
Poland	Millet seeds raw	0.46	0.46	0.46	0.46