Sunflower markets are experiencing notable turbulence as price dynamics across global oilseed exchanges shift under the weight of macroeconomic pressures and region-specific trends. SAFEX sunflower contracts have surged impressively, with December 2025 settling up 3.32% to ZAR 11,250/t—a striking move that contrasts with the recent overall weakness in vegetable oil and oilseed markets worldwide. Demand factors, including modest Chinese purchases of US soybeans and disappointing Malaysian palm oil export data, underline a hesitant global buyer sentiment. Meanwhile, the North American canola market faces its lowest levels in nine months, adding a bearish undertone to the sector as a whole.
Within Europe and the Black Sea region, spot prices for sunflower seeds remain stable, but physical premiums reflect regional origins and quality. For instance, hulled, bakery-quality sunflower kernels from Moldova and Bulgaria in Germany fetch €0.93–1.09/kg FCA, while Bulgarian striped seeds for export are at €0.61/kg FOB. Ukraine remains a crucial supplier, with Odesa-origin black sunflower seeds at €0.56–0.61/kg. Weather remains a key variable: favorable recent rains in South America support an optimistic oilseed supply outlook, while the early 2026 export window may put further pressure on EU and Black Sea sellers. Market participants are watching fund positioning closely as recent CFTC data showed large long-liquidations in soy, hinting at growing caution ahead of the 2026 season. Against this complex backdrop, the next three days are expected to bring continued volatility as traders digest fresh USDA data and evolving weather forecasts.
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📈 Market Prices Overview
| Exchange/Market | Product | Type | Purity | Origin | Incoterm | Location | Latest Price | Prev. Price | Date | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEX | Sunflower (Dec 25) | – | – | ZA | – | South Africa | ZAR 11,250/t | ZAR 10,876/t | 15.12.2025 | +3.32% | Bullish |
| SAFEX | Sunflower (Jan 26) | – | – | ZA | – | South Africa | ZAR 10,772/t | ZAR 10,525/t | 15.12.2025 | +2.29% | Bullish |
| Germany (Rheinfelden) | Sunflower seeds | Black | 98% | MD | FCA | DE | €0.48/kg | €0.48/kg | 12.12.2025 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Bulgaria (Sofia) | Sunflower seeds | Striped | 98% | BG | FOB | BG | €0.61/kg | €0.61/kg | 12.12.2025 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Sunflower seeds | Black | 98% | UA | FOB | UA | €0.56/kg | €0.55/kg | 12.12.2025 | +1.82% | Slightly Bullish |
| Bulgaria (Berlin) | Sunflower kernels hulled, bakery | Bakery | 99.99% | BG | FCA | DE | €1.09/kg | €1.09/kg | 12.12.2025 | 0.00% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- USDA reported only small new soybean export sales to China (136,000 tonnes), well below expectations, reflecting weaker demand for US oilseeds.
- South American (Brazil/Argentina) weather remains favorable: recent rainfall boosts soybean and sunflower output prospects—AgRural sees Brazil’s 2025/26 soy planting nearly complete (97%).
- The impending Brazilian export season (Jan–Mar 2026) could further pressure US/EU/Black Sea oilseed exports, especially to Asia.
- Fund activity: CFTC data shows large net-long outflows from soybean futures and options (-15,336 contracts), signaling shrinking speculative appetite in oilseeds.
- NOPA crush for November (216.0 million bushels) down 5.1% from October but still a record for November (+11.8% YoY), swelling US soyoil stocks; global oilseed stocks remain ample.
- EU and Ukraine continue to dominate sunflower exports, but Ukrainian logistics remain fragile due to ongoing regional instability.
📊 Fundamentals & Stock Situation
- Major exporters: Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Argentina—2025/26 production outlook stable to slightly higher, barring severe weather events.
- Imports: EU and China are key buyers; Chinese demand for protein meals/oils will be closely monitored in coming months.
- Stock levels: Global oilseed (especially soyoil) stocks are ample. NOPA US soyoil stocks rose to 1.51 billion lbs (+16% MoM, +40% YoY).
- Malaysian palm oil and Canadian canola prices trend lower, exerting cross-pressure on sunflower prices—especially in the edible oils segment.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- South America (Brazil, Argentina): Current forecasts suggest continued rainfall and moderate temperatures, benefiting oilseed crops through late-December. No major drought stress predicted in the short term.
- Black Sea Region: Mild, favorable weather persists, though some frost risk remains for late-planted sunflower. Soil moisture is normal-to-above average.
- Europe: Western/Eastern EU areas have normal soil moisture; no significant frost events expected for the coming week.
Conclusion: Near-term weather is non-threatening; upside risks could return if a cold snap hits Black Sea/EU and threatens overwintering plants or shipment logistics.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2025 Output (proj.) | 2025 Stocks (proj.) | Exports (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 15.5 Mt | 2.1 Mt | 7.3 Mt |
| Russia | 16.3 Mt | 2.5 Mt | 3.7 Mt |
| EU (mainly BG, RO, HU) | 11.2 Mt | 2.0 Mt | 3.2 Mt |
| Argentina | 3.8 Mt | 0.6 Mt | 1.0 Mt |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Near-term price direction remains volatile, but upside limited by ample global oilseed supply and weak external veg oil markets.
- Monitor South American weather closely—sustained rains can cap rallies, while any drought/frost surprise would support prices.
- Speculators should be cautious; hedge funds are reducing long exposure in oilseeds.
- Crushers and exporters: Good time to cover near-term needs but stay defensive for Q1/Q2 2026 unless weather or logistics disrupt flow from Black Sea.
- Monitor Chinese demand and revised USDA export forecasts as leading indicators for any trend shifts.
- Premiums for high-purity and bakery-quality sunflower kernels (esp. from UA, BG) remain firm due to resilient EU/ME demand.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Spot & Exchange)
| Region/Market | Product | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAFEX (ZA) | Sunflower Dec 25 | ZAR 11,250/t | ZAR 11,100-11,400/t | Neutral/Soft |
| Germany (Rheinfelden) | Sunflower seed (black, MD) | €0.48/kg | €0.47-0.49/kg | Stable |
| Bulgaria (Sofia) | Sunflower seed (striped, BG) | €0.61/kg | €0.60-0.62/kg | Stable |
| Ukraine (Odesa) | Sunflower seed (black, UA) | €0.56/kg | €0.55-0.57/kg | Soft/Bearish |
End of report.
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