The international oat market continues to navigate through ample supply and fluctuating demand fundamentals. CBOT oat futures show a mixed short-term sentiment: while near-term contracts (Mar–May 2026) post slight gains, deferred maturities experience a uniform softening. These shifts mirror overarching global agri-markets, with oats tracking the wider temperate grains segment, which is under pressure from record harvest projections in the Southern Hemisphere and tempered by lackluster speculative action.
Despite sustained large inventories in key export nations—bolstered by strong wheat and barley outputs in Australia and Argentina—oat prices in Europe remain steady, with Ukrainian feed oats available ex-Odesa (FCA) at €0.25/kg. The lack of a new bullish catalyst is evident, as financial investors maintain significant but slightly reduced net-short positions while preferring not to press for further downside.
Weather factors are currently benign for spring plantings, but hints of volatility linger, especially given the potential for adverse late-winter moisture deficits in the US and uncertainties around Black Sea logistics. Looking ahead, global consumers and traders remain adaptive, mindful of currency weakness and logistics risks, but find short-term cover at attractive levels. As oats tread water, opportunity arises for buyers to secure supply before market direction finds a firmer footing.
📈 Oat Market Prices (CBOT & EU) – As of Mid-December 2025
| Contract (CBOT) |
Last Price |
Weekly Change |
Sentiment |
Date/Time |
| Mar 26 |
283.25 US-Cent/bu |
+2.25 (+0.8%) |
Stable/Bullish |
16.12.2025 07:40 |
| May 26 |
292.00 US-Cent/bu |
+2.25 (+0.78%) |
Stable |
16.12.2025 04:15 |
| Jul 26 |
295.00 US-Cent/bu |
-6.00 (-1.99%) |
Bearish |
15.12.2025 |
| Sep 26 |
294.75 US-Cent/bu |
-5.75 (-1.91%) |
Bearish |
15.12.2025 |
| Product |
Specification |
Origin |
Price |
Update |
| Feed Oat |
98%, UA, FCA Odesa |
Ukraine |
€0.25/kg |
11.12.2025 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- 🌾 Supply Side: Global cereal production remains near historic highs—record wheat and barley output in Australia (wheat: 35.6 Mt, barley: 15.7 Mt), strong Argentinian and Black Sea harvests support feed grain ample-ness.
- 🧮 Export Availability: Ukraine remains a competitive supplier, with oats for export at low prices; Europe’s feed oat demand is steady, as alternatives like wheat and barley are also in oversupply.
- 📊 Investor Sentiment: The CFTC reports a modest reduction in wheat/oat net-shorts, indicating investors are less aggressive in betting on further price falls.
📊 Fundamental Data & External Drivers
- Crop Reports: No material downward crop revisions in key exporting countries; WASDE maintains a comfortable global stock-to-use ratio.
- Speculative Positioning: Still net short, but short covering signaled; speculative funds may be wary of further downside risk as global prices stabilize.
- Global Trade Flows: Argentina and Russia aggressively price cereals; ocean freight insurance for Black Sea grains remains a latent risk factor.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications
- 🗺️ US Midwest: Recent conditions are favorable; soil moisture remains adequate, but a La Niña risk looms for late winter, potentially impacting planting conditions.
- 🌍 Europe/Black Sea: No imminent weather threats; shipping disruption from regional conflict is a concern for logistics more than yield for now.
🔢 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country |
2025/26 Oat Output (Est.) |
Stock/Use Ratio (%) |
| Canada |
~3.0 Mt |
High |
| USA |
~0.9 Mt |
Moderate |
| EU |
~8.0 Mt |
Stable |
| Russia |
~4.6 Mt |
High |
| Australia |
~1.2 Mt |
High |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📉 Bears: Large world inventories, absence of crop threats—risks remain on the upside if weather deteriorates or logistics worsen.
- 📈 Bulls: Watch for late-winter planting risks, currency swings, and logistics disruptions from Black Sea.
- 💼 Buyers: Consider advancing spot and Q1 2026 coverage—current weakness offers value, but prices can firm with new risk events.
- 📦 Sellers: Seek marketing opportunities into short-lived rallies; don’t chase lower unless forced by logistics or cash flow.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT & Odesa, EUR/kg)
| Location/Contract |
16 Dec |
17 Dec |
18 Dec |
| CBOT Mar 26 (US-Cent/bu) |
283.25 |
282.00 – 285.50 |
281.00 – 286.00 |
| Odesa Feed Oat (EUR/kg) |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
