Sunflower Market Rallies: New Highs, Steady Demand, and Bullish Outlook

The global sunflower market is showing clear signs of renewed strength as prices across major exchanges and physical markets push higher. On SAFEX, December 2025 sunflower contracts surged by ZAR 374/t (+3.32%) to close at ZAR 11,250/t, marking notable bullish sentiment, especially when compared with more modest movements in forward contracts. Physical markets in the Black Sea region, Bulgaria, and Germany are reflecting stability with consistent price offers for both black and striped sunflower seeds, as well as for kernels. The consistent pricing—especially no week-on-week change in the EUR offers—demonstrates a market seeking equilibrium, but strong fundamentals and ongoing tight global stock situations continue to underpin values. Weather is a front-and-center concern: a mild, dry pattern over much of Eastern Europe and southern Russia could challenge yield prospects as the next planting season approaches. Uncertainty in Ukrainian export volumes remains a major determining factor not only for Europe but also for global edible oil markets. Speculative positioning remains firmly anchored as a market driver, with elevated net long positions betting further on upside, while global production forecasts and ongoing demand from both human and industrial segments challenge the market with persistent underlying support. Market participants now face a landscape where both weather risk and logistical uncertainty in the Black Sea will play outsized roles in price formation for the coming months.

📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot

Exchange/Product	Month	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX	Dec 25	ZAR 11,250/t	+ZAR 374 (+3.32%)	Bullish
SAFEX	Jan 26	ZAR 10,772/t	+ZAR 247 (+2.29%)	Bullish
SAFEX	Mar 26	ZAR 9,575/t	+ZAR 20 (+0.21%)	Stable
SAFEX	Apr 26	ZAR 9,000/t	ZAR 0 (0%)	Sideways
SAFEX	May 26	ZAR 8,934/t	-ZAR 64 (-0.72%)	Soft
SAFEX	Jul 26	ZAR 9,150/t	-ZAR 50 (-0.55%)	Soft
SAFEX	Sep 26	ZAR 9,420/t	+ZAR 5 (+0.05%)	Flat
SAFEX	Dec 26	ZAR 9,580/t	ZAR 0 (0%)	Sideways

 

Product	Origin	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
Sunflower seeds, black	MD (to DE)	FCA Rheinfelden	0.48	0
Sunflower seeds, striped	BG	FOB Sofia	0.61	0
Sunflower seeds, black	BG	FCA Sofia	0.45	0
Sunflower seeds, black	UA (Odesa)	FOB	0.56	+0.01
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	UA (Dnipro)	FCA	0.93	0
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery	BG (to DE)	FCA Berlin	1.09	0

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine remains the top global exporter; logistical routes are stable but remain sensitive to Black Sea tensions.
• Global crush margins are favorable, further increasing seed demand from processors.
• Demand remains strong for both oil and confectionery uses, with food inflation sustaining consumer interest in plant-based oils.
• Weather-driven yield uncertainty in both the Black Sea region and Argentina is beginning to shape forward curves, keeping deferred markets on edge.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Data

• Global sunflower seed production is forecast to be slightly down versus last year due to lower area in Romania and Ukraine.
• Opening stocks in the EU remain tight, with crushers in Germany and Bulgaria reporting slower replenishment.
• Speculative net longs rose this week by an estimated 8%, reflecting bullish sentiment on nearby contracts.
• No significant changes observed in physical market offers across the main European exporters.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis

• Eastern Europe/Black Sea: A spell of above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall is forecast, potentially trimming yield prospects for spring 2026 crops.
• Argentina: Current conditions are mostly favorable, but forecasts show increasing dryness—risk for yield reductions if prolonged.
• EU: Mild weather supports overwintering crops, but low soil moisture reserves could become an issue as spring approaches.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est., mln t)	Stock/Use Ratio (%)
Ukraine	14.0	8.5
Russia	14.8	11.3
EU	10.0	6.2
Argentina	3.3	7.4
Turkey	1.9	5.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish short-term momentum: Nearby contracts supported by renewed demand and Black Sea tension risk.
• Crushers/Processors: Secure forward supply through Q1/Q2 with a mix of spot and forward contracts; consider further upside risk if Black Sea disruptions intensify.
• Farmers: Consider incremental selling on price rallies, especially at current multi-month highs.
• Buyers: Diversify sources and maintain inventory buffer to hedge against logistical delays.
• Speculators: Maintain/add to long positions as fundamentals and positioning remain supportive; monitor for technical breakouts.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Product	Forecasted Range	Sentiment
SAFEX	Sunflower, Dec 25	ZAR 11,200 – ZAR 11,400/t	Bullish
BG Physical	Black seeds, FCA Sofia	EUR 0.45 – 0.48/kg	Stable
UA Physical	Black seeds, FCA Odesa	EUR 0.56 – 0.58/kg	Bullish
DE Imports	Kernels, FCA Berlin	EUR 1.08 – 1.11/kg	Stable