Rapeseed Markets Hold Steady Amid Global Uncertainty and Tight Farmer Sales

The global rapeseed (canola) market is navigating a period of relative stability amid several counteracting forces. While benchmark futures on Euronext (MATIF) showed no significant changes today, Canadian Canola contracts slid for the fourth consecutive session. These diverging regional trends highlight the influence of local demand, trade policy uncertainty, and broader oilseed market fundamentals. Farmer selling remains limited, especially in Canada, as producers are reluctant to accept current price levels in hopes of renewed interest from China or higher prices later. The ongoing standoff over tariffs between China and Canada continues to limit Canadian canola export channels, even though domestic demand is somewhat supportive.

On the horizon, Ukrainian rapeseed plantings are only marginally lower, and the 2026 harvest could again match last year’s robust output. Meanwhile, speculative positions in oilseeds — both in Europe and the US — have shown modest increases in net-long commitments, pointing to a cautious but ongoing optimism among managed money funds.

Externally, oilseed markets feel the pull of broader energy markets. Recent escalations in US-Venezuela tensions have sent crude oil prices higher, lending indirect support to vegetable oil prices, while palm oil quotes hover in a narrow range with ongoing concerns about Malaysian inventories. The next weeks will be critical as weather developments in key growing regions—including dry or mild winter forecasts across the Black Sea and Western Europe—will shape planting success and yield expectations.

📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot

Exchange/Market	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€461.00/t	0.00%	EUR	Stable
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€456.75/t	0.00%	EUR	Stable
ICE Canada Canola	Mar 26	CA$600.20/t	-1.38%	CAD	Pressured
Spot Market Ukraine (Kyiv/FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	€0.58/kg	0.00%	EUR	Sideways
Spot Market Ukraine (Odesa/FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	€0.60/kg	0.00%	EUR	Sideways
Spot Market France (Paris/FOB)	Rape seeds	€0.55/kg	0.00%	EUR	Calm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Sown area for 2026 down slightly, but forecast crop likely steady at 3.3 million tonnes. Exports remain robust as Europe continues as a major market.
• Canada: Record canola harvest; weak export demand amid China tariffs, but ongoing strong domestic crushing supports prices. Farmers hold back sales, waiting on market improvement.
• Europe: Euronext futures steady as supply is adequate, margins for crushers remain acceptable, but the market watches for changes in demand from biofuels and food sectors.
• US & World Oilseeds: Soybeans under pressure; Chinese purchases fall below expectations, dampening oilseed complex sentiment. Palm oil export concerns persist due to high stocks.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

• Managed Money: Euronext rapeseed net-long positions increased modestly to 33,149 contracts. CFTC data show similar speculative optimism in soybeans.
• Energy Markets: Tensions in US-Venezuela and prospect of stricter sanctions on Russia have pushed crude oil higher, underpinning vegetable oil values globally.
• Policy & Trade: China remains absent from Canadian canola market due to trade dispute, limiting export options and suppressing ICE prices despite strong domestic crush demand.

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Mild winter forecast with some variations—soil moisture conditions are currently adequate but dryness risk remains in spring.
• Western Europe (France/Germany): Seasonably cool with good soil moisture; little risk to establishment, but closely watched for late frost spells.
• Canada (Prairies): Recent snow improved ground moisture, but spring will determine yield prospects. Weather models currently call for normal conditions.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2025/26 Production (mt)	Change YOY	Ending Stocks (mt)
EU	19.8	+0.5%	2.8
Ukraine	3.3	0%	0.6
Canada	19.4	+8%	2.2
China (Imports)	~2.0	-30%	N/A

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Hold off on large sales unless prices recover; monitor China tariff developments and biofuel mandates.
• Exporters: Focus on EU and secondary Asian buyers; be ready for potential export rallies if weather issues develop in Black Sea or Canada.
• Consumers/Crushers: Lock in supply at current prices; margin stability seen in the short term unless major crop surprises emerge.
• Speculators: Current sideways trading could break with new policy signals or weather shifts. Watch managed money flows for early cues.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

• Euronext (MATIF) Rape Feb 26: €458–€464/t (stable, low volatility expected)
• ICE Canada Canola Mar 26: CA$595–$605/t (mild downside bias; farmer selling still slow)
• Spot UA (FCA Kyiv): €0.57–€0.60/kg (steady, narrow trading band)