Millet Market: Range-Bound Prices Signal Stability Amid Supply Shift

The global millet market is currently navigating a phase characterized by stable prices and underlying shifts in both supply and demand dynamics. Market participants have observed a distribution of surplus grain at various supply chain levels, leading to an uptick in supply availability in some regions—notably driven by slightly more flexible attitudes among farmers and holders. On the demand side, activity from milling companies remains subdued, with most processors remaining cautious on procurement and largely operating off existing, higher-cost inventories. While procurement enthusiasm among traders has waned, a select few processors with leaner reserves have selectively sourced suitable lots. Despite minor cost pressures from earlier procurement rounds, the bulk price trend has held steady, reflecting a relative market equilibrium in major regions.

Weather remains a watchpoint; updated forecasts for key millet-producing areas in China and Ukraine suggest predominantly neutral to slightly favorable conditions, further supporting price stability in the near term. However, with grain traders acting conservatively and demand from end-users yet to recover robustly, the market could remain range-bound pending stronger downstream demand signals or new policy interventions. This environment underscores the importance for stakeholders to monitor changing sentiment and upcoming crop reports closely as the next direction-setting catalyst could emerge from these areas.

📈 Market Prices at Major Origins

Product	Origin	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Millet seeds, inshell, yellow	UA	98%	No	Odesa	FCA	0.34	0.00	Neutral
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	UA	98%	No	Odesa	FCA	0.44	0.00	Stable
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	UA	99%	Yes	Odesa	FCA	1.20	0.00	Premium, Stable
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	CN	99.90%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.80	-0.02	Slightly Weaker
Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	CN	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.71	-0.01	Neutral/Weak
Millet seeds, inshell, red	UA	98%	No	Odesa	FCA	0.36	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Supply: Surplus millet is dispersed at various supply chain links; increased flows noted due to more flexible attitudes among some farmers and inventory holders, especially in China.
• Demand: Most mills have yet to see a pickup in demand; traders and processors are reluctant to build stocks except for those with lean inventories. Activity remains slow, matching sluggish downstream consumption trends.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• High procurement costs from earlier periods continue to weigh on average industry inventory values, especially for medium and large mills.
• Traders’ procurement motivation has waned due to slow throughput and adequate carryover stocks.
• Market sentiment: Cautiously stable to slightly pessimistic, awaiting a firmer signal from downstream demand.
• According to local market forecasts, dominant millet prices in China are expected to remain stable this week.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• China (Northern production belt): Weather patterns are currently neutral. No significant adverse weather anticipated, supporting steady yield projections.
• Ukraine: Forecasts indicate mild, predominantly dry weather, favorable for harvest completion and post-harvest supply flows.
• Poland: Mild and stable, contributing to product quality stability.

Overall: The absence of significant weather disruptions implies continued support for stable yield and near-term local supply.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Major Exporters: India, China, Ukraine remain the largest global millet suppliers. Ukraine’s competitiveness remains evident in export FOB prices.
• Key Importers: EU, Near East, and African countries.
• 2024 global output is forecasted to be steady to higher year-on-year, with inventory levels in major exporters sufficient to meet near-term international demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Takeaways

• 🔎 Buyers: Consider opportunistic purchases on minor price dips, but do not rush to over-commit while demand remains soft.
• 🛑 Sellers: Hold positions unless significant pipeline shortfalls emerge; no immediate pressure to offload inventories.
• 📉 Processers/Traders: Manage procurement cautiously. Leverage stable spot prices to fill near-term requirements without building large stocks.
• 🔔 Watch for: Shifts in consumer demand, input price changes, upcoming government policy updates, and emerging weather events that could alter crop prospects.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Ukraine (Odesa, FCA): Prices expected to hold at EUR 0.34-0.44/kg (yellow inshell/hulled), stable with low volatility.
• China (Beijing, FOB): Prices likely to remain within EUR 0.71-0.80/kg range, slight downside bias unless pickup in buying emerges.
• Poland (Kiełczygłow, FCA): No change expected from current levels; firmness supported by stable weather and supply chain conditions.