Pumpkin Seeds Market: Quality Defines Price Amid Divergent Demand (Dec 2025)

China’s pumpkin seed market is currently defined by a nuanced landscape of quality differentiation and demand divergence. The core dynamics hinge on how both domestic and export channels perceive and handle product grades, resulting in subdued overall market activity. Traders and processors report generally weak transaction volumes, with notable independence across major production regions. This self-driven rhythm underlines a market that is hesitating to move decisively in any single direction. The constant negotiation between supply and demand is not only ongoing but has shifted its focus squarely onto quality as the pivotal factor. High-quality pumpkin seeds are seeing relatively steadier flows and firmer pricing, while lower quality product faces diminishing export appeal and reduced price support.

On the export side, the landscape has shifted significantly year-over-year, with sporadic, smaller orders replacing last year’s more frequent large-scale contracts. The narrowing export pathway for lower grade seeds has been especially pronounced, squeezing margins and contributing to an overall tepid export market. Domestically, the market is driven by essential demand for roasted seeds, with end-users generally limiting procurement to what is strictly necessary. There has been little evidence of inventory-building by processors or end users, as most enterprises prefer a just-in-time approach. Market participants are therefore advised to keep a close watch on quality trends and regional weather patterns, as both will remain central to pricing and availability into early 2026.

📈 Prices

Product	Grade	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Pumpkin seeds kernels GWS	AA	99.95%	No	Dalian	3.34	=	Stable/Neutral
Pumpkin seeds kernels Shine Skin	AA	99.95%	No	Dalian	3.45	=	Stable/Neutral
Pumpkin seeds kernels GWS	A	99.95%	No	Dalian	3.15	=	Stable/Neutral
Pumpkin seeds kernels Shine Skin	A	99.95%	No	Dalian	2.75	=	Stable/Neutral
Pumpkin seed kernels Shine Skin	AA	99.95%	Yes	Beijing	3.35	-0.01	Weak
Pumpkin seed kernels Shine Skin	AA	99.95%	No	Beijing	3.15	-0.02	Weak
Pumpkin seed kernels Shine Skin	A+	99.95%	No	Beijing	2.14	-0.06	Weak
Pumpkin seed kernels GWS	AA	99.95%	No	Beijing	2.83	-0.12	Weak
Pumpkin seed kernels GWS	A	99.95%	No	Beijing	2.22	=	Stable/Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Quality differentiation has become the primary pricing lever, with high grades attracting solid demand both domestically and for export.
• Export markets are seeing reduced large-scale orders and narrowing avenues for lower quality seeds. Export demand remains fragmented.
• Domestic market is operating on strict necessity purchasing; no stockpiling or restocking trends detected at present.
• Enterprise procurement strategies have pivoted to on-demand-only, reinforcing a weak transaction trend.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Supply and demand standoff: Farmers and processors maintain regional autonomy in sales, trading only at preferred price-quality points.
• No significant government policy changes or new trade agreements detected for the current marketing season.
• Weak export channels for low-grade product intensify competitive pressure and limit upside price movement.
• Cautious speculative interest—hedging and large position-taking remain subdued as replacement risk is perceived to be high for lower grades.
• Quality, not volume, is the main market driver during this period.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Northern China’s main pumpkin-growing regions forecast cloudy to clear weather for the coming week with average temperatures for December (0°C to 5°C daytime).
• Moisture levels are adequate, and no frost/severe freeze appears likely during this period.
• Weather impact: Low risk for damage to stored crop and neutral effects on transport and market logistics.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• China remains the world’s dominant pumpkin seed supplier, representing over 60% of global exports (2024/25 est.).
• Key importing countries (EU, US, Middle East) are sourcing largely from China, with some shifts towards alternative origins due to ongoing supply chain risk assessments.
• Global inventories are reportedly stable, but downstream buyers are mostly working lean inventories, with no surge in restocking activity reported.
• Emerging competition from Eastern Europe and CIS countries, but quality and scale are not yet a serious challenge to China’s leadership.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain a defensive posture: Prioritize contracting for high-quality product, as buyers remain risk-averse.
• Avoid speculative accumulation of lower-grade seeds given persistently weak export channels.
• Monitor local weather and logistics—no major disruption expected but seasonality can surprise.
• Buyers: Focus on just-in-time procurement to avoid holding cost risk.
• Sellers: Adjust offers based on quality and be flexible with smaller contract size requests.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Dalian/Beijing, FOB, EUR/kg)

Product	Location	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
GWS AA	Dalian	3.34	3.34	3.33
Shine Skin AA	Dalian	3.45	3.45	3.44
GWS AA	Beijing	2.83	2.83	2.82
Shine Skin AA	Beijing	3.15	3.14	3.13