The global macadamia market continues to be shaped by dynamic shifts in production, inventories, and consumer demand. Rising interest in healthy snacking and plant-based foods has underpinned long-term growth, prompting expansion in newer and traditional producing regions. However, the 2025 season brought fresh complexities that altered supply outlooks and reinforced the importance of monitoring regional developments. While countries like China and Kenya have delivered robust harvests, powerhouse exporters South Africa and Australia faced significant shortfalls due to adverse weather and farm input constraints.
These disruptions have tightened global kernel inventories, notably for whole kernels, maintaining steady and supportive price levels. As we proceed into 2026, the market faces a tug of war between sustained demand, weather-driven supply risks, and shifting trade dynamics—highlighted by the recent removal of U.S. tariffs and China’s surprisingly high carryover stocks. Below, this report unpacks the latest figures, drivers, and near-term outlook for macadamias, arming market participants with a concise yet comprehensive analysis.
📈 Prices & Inventories
- Global kernel stocks (especially whole kernels): Tight
- Price trend: Stable and firm—supported by limited availability
| Region | Latest Closing Price (indicative) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major Exporters (avg.) | Not available (prices stable, supply tight) | 0% | Firm/Bullish |
*Indicative prices only as detailed regional data was not provided in supplementary EUR pricing feeds.*
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- South Africa: 2025 output revised down 12% (85,166 MT DNIS) due to adverse weather and reduced farm inputs—reflecting prolonged market price pressure.
- Australia: 2025 production dropped by 28% (approx. 40,000 MT)—worst output in over a decade. Extended wet weather damaged crops and delayed harvest.
- China: Strong late 2025 harvest led to large carryover stocks into 2026, potentially weakening internal demand.
- Kenya: Outperformed expectations with a stronger-than-anticipated harvest.
- Demand: Remains robust from Europe and APAC, with bullish outlook supported by the U.S. tariff removal.
📊 Fundamentals
| Country | 2025 Production (MT, DNIS) | Change vs. Early Proj. |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 85,166 | -12% |
| Australia | ~40,000 | -28% |
| China | Bumper crop | Above forecast |
| Kenya | Strong | Above forecast |
- Global Inventories: Extremely limited carry-in for 2026; kernel stock tightness persists.
- Trade Policy: U.S. tariff removal expected to lift demand from North America in 2026.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Risks
- East Africa & Australia: Adequate rainfall is driving healthy nut formation and low nut drop, supporting above-average early development for 2026 crops.
- South Africa: Heavy and continuous rains recently have washed off critical chemical (insect spray) treatments, increasing the risk of insect damage and potentially reducing yields.
Short-term Weather Impact: While macro conditions are favorable for most regions, targeted pest pressure may create regional supply volatility, especially in South Africa.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | 2024/2025 Crop Outcome | 2026 Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | Severely reduced | Potential yield risk due to insect pressure |
| Australia | Historically weak | Crop tracking ahead of previous years |
| China | Bumper crop/carry-over | Supply overhang may weigh on prices post-Chinese NY |
| Kenya/East Africa | Better than expected | Healthy early-season development |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔹 Kernels: Continue to favor stable-to-firm pricing in H1 2026—low risk of downside until new harvest reaches the market from April onward.
- 🔹 Bullish signals: U.S. tariff removal, solid European/APAC demand support price floors.
- 🔹 Bearish risks: China’s high stocks may suppress prices post-Chinese New Year; careful monitoring of nut-inshell cracking and Chinese demand is essential.
- 🔹 Regional watch: South Africa faces heightened pest risk; prices may bifurcate depending on insect impact and intervention success.
- 🔹 Inventories: With inventories extremely tight, prompt contracts for kernel supply remain advisable for processors and manufacturers.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Forecasted Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Global (kernels) | Stable/Firm (indicative only; unchanged) | Sideways/Firm |
| China (domestic) | Marginally softer post–Chinese NY | Mildly Bearish |
| South Africa/Australia Export | Firm—occasional short-term spikes possible if pest fears escalate | Bullish-Risk Adjusted |
Note: Actual price levels in EUR, USD or CNY not quoted due to lack of supplementary exchange data. Price sentiment based on market fundamentals from the core report.