Poland’s Sugar Surplus: Export Growth Amid Global Price Pressures

The Polish sugar market stands at a pivotal crossroads. The 2025/2026 sugar campaign has closed with another robust production figure of over 2.5 million tons—matching last year’s output and confirming Poland’s position as a significant European supplier. Despite this production consistency, the market is experiencing contradictory forces: on one hand, a substantial exportable surplus between 0.8 and 1 million tons, and on the other, mounting pressure from falling global sugar prices and the uncertainty surrounding tariff-free imports into the EU, particularly from Mercosur and other regions.

Poland’s 17 sugar factories, concentrated under four major groups, processed a vast 18.6 million tons of sugar beets—thanks to strong yields averaging 72 tons per hectare across 258,000 hectares. Yet, these operational achievements are now met with a much tougher global marketplace, where profitability is threatened. With over 25,000 Polish beet growers relying on stable returns and international market access, the coming months will test the resilience of Poland’s sugar sector as competitive pressures intensify and policy shifts loom. Market participants and stakeholders must now navigate increased volatility, adapt export strategies, and closely monitor both domestic and international developments to ensure sustained stability and competitiveness in the months ahead.

📈 Current Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Spec	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Sentiment
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 32, 0.300-0.600mm	GB	Norfolk	ICUMSA 32	0.42	0.42	2026-02-16	Stable
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45, 0.212-0.425mm	GB	Norfolk	ICUMSA 45	0.42	0.42	2026-02-16	Stable
Sugar granulated ICUMSA 45, 0.4-1.00mm	UA	Vinnytsia Oblast	ICUMSA 45	0.41	0.41	2026-02-16	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Total Polish sugar production (2025/26): >2.5 million tons (unchanged y/y)
• Processed sugar beets: 18.6 million tons, sourced from over 25,000 growers
• Beet acreage: 258,000 ha
• Average yield: 72 t/ha—indicative of strong agricultural performance
• Poland’s exportable surplus: 0.8–1 million tons
• Current demand and consumption level: Steady domestically, but exports face increased competition from global suppliers and risk of EU liberalized imports
• Downward pressure on prices: Global prices weakening, affecting margins

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Production stability: Consecutive years at >2.5 million tons signals Polish sugar sector resilience
• Consolidated industry: 17 sugar plants across 4 capital groups offers scale efficiencies
• Profitability concerns: Lower world prices and potential increases in tariff-free sugar imports raise risk for Polish and EU producers
• Export dependency: High surplus increases reliance on export markets, increasing sensitivity to international price and trade policy changes

☁️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Poland’s 2025 growing season achieved strong yields (72 t/ha), implying favorable conditions for beets
• Initial forecasts for 2026 suggest continued productivity if weather remains stable; watch for spring moisture levels and potential early frosts
• Key risk: Weather volatility in Eastern European beet regions could impact next season’s output and regional price trends

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• EU remains a net exporter, but Polish surplus is a key driver of regional trade flows
• Rising stocks in major producing countries (e.g., Brazil, India) contributing to weak global prices
• EU market exposed to uncertainty over liberalized imports (e.g., Mercosur), potentially depressing internal prices further

📌 Key Drivers & Market Risks

• World sugar prices continue to soften, challenging export competitiveness
• Volatility ahead: EU trade negotiations and internal policy shifts could reshape market dynamics in 2026
• Polish sector’s strong supply buffer could provide resilience if domestic or regional demand recovers

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Exchange/Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
2026-02-19	London (ref: GB, Norfolk)	0.42	Stable
2026-02-20	London (ref: GB, Norfolk)	0.42	Stable
2026-02-21	London (ref: GB, Norfolk)	0.41	Moderate Downside Risk

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term prices expected to remain flat with modest downside risk on further global price declines
• Exporters should seek diversification of market destinations and monitor EU trade policy closely
• Hedging recommended to protect against possible sharp decline in spot prices
• Grower margins will be squeezed if global prices drop further; consider input cost management strategies
• Monitor spring weather for 2026 sowing, as any adverse events could trigger volatility in prices and supply