Heavy Rains, Export Shifts, and Rising Prices: The Dynamic Turkish Figs Market

Recent developments have brought renewed optimism to Türkiye’s dried figs market. After suffering through a particularly dry year, the heart of fig production in Aydın has received substantial rainfall in the past week, providing crucial soil moisture heading into the key months for fig cultivation. This weather change is significant for local farmers, as improved soil moisture will minimize the need for costly irrigation, directly benefiting production economics. As a result, farmers are now hoping the rains continue to bolster sustainability for the upcoming crop.

The fig market’s export dynamics have also shifted. With the start of Ramadan, Turkish fig exports have transitioned from their traditional European clientele towards strong demand in the Middle East. This surge has rejuvenated both local sales and exports, offering much-needed relief for the supply chain after a challenging season.
Pricing behavior has diverged. Scarce fig varieties are seeing price increases, while others remain stable. In local Turkish markets, dried figs are trading between 400 and 700 TL—a spread reflecting product grade and regional availability. Export FOB prices from Malatya for Turkish dried figs currently hold firm, with only selected varieties experiencing small rises, especially in the higher grades. These overlapping market forces paint a complex but fundamentally supportive picture for Türkiye’s dried fig sector.

📈 Prices

Product	Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Change (vs. prev. week)	Market Sentiment
Figs dried	No: 1, natural	Malatya, TR	FOB	9.7	0.0	Stable/Firm
Figs dried	No: 4, natural	Malatya, TR	FOB	8.9	0.0	Stable
Figs dried	No: 7, lerida	Malatya, TR	FOB	7.7	0.0	Stable
Figs dried	No: 1, lerida	Malatya, TR	FOB	11.0	+1.5	Firm/Bullish for top grades

• Local market, Türkiye: 400–700 TL/kg (raw dried figs; product and region dependent).
• FOB prices for select top grades (Malatya, TR) have seen small increases for scarce items.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Weather Turnaround: Heavy rain in Aydın replenished soil moisture after a severe drought, reducing the need for irrigation in the coming months and lowering operational costs for farmers.
• Strong Ramadan Demand: Export flows have pivoted from Europe to the Middle East, with Ramadan boosting demand significantly in the region.
• Local Market Activity: Both exports and domestic sales have risen, helping stabilize the market and offering growers a much-needed buffer after last year’s poor weather.
• Price Differentiation: Scarce fig types remain in demand with price increases, but plentiful varieties are unchanged week-on-week. Export prices tracked by FOB terms remain overall stable, with strength at the high end.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production Outlook: Given last year’s dryness, recent rains are critical for next season’s yields. Farmers anticipate improved growing conditions if the favorable weather persists.
• Stock Levels: No significant stock build reported; movement into the domestic market continues alongside export fulfillment.
• Export Markets: Ramadan offers a seasonal window for increased figs exports to the Middle East, compensating for subdued European shipments. This trend may continue in the short term, supporting firm prices.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Aydın, TR: The forecast indicates lingering precipitation for the next week, maintaining elevated soil moisture and reducing short-term irrigation needs. Farmers hope this trend continues to ensure optimal growing conditions, directly supporting 2024/25 yield prospects.
• Potential Risks: Excessive rainfall could complicate later crop stages, but the current situation is overwhelmingly positive following last year’s drought stress.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• Türkiye remains the world’s principal exporter of dried figs, with Aydın as the sector’s core.
• Other major producing countries (Iran, Egypt, Morocco) are expected to maintain steady output, but Turkish supply and pricing dominate the global trend due to both quality and scale.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Continued bullish undertones for top fig grades, especially those in limited supply due to post-drought constraints.
• Exporters: Leverage Ramadan-driven demand in the Middle East for prompt shipments. Monitor price elasticity in Europe for possible later recovery.
• Buyers: Secure contracts early, particularly for premium grades, as market tightness could intensify if favorable weather shifts or demand outpaces supply.
• Producers: Take advantage of reduced irrigation needs to lower costs, but maintain vigilance for disease risk in persistently wet fields.
• Market participants: Watch for further domestic price escalation, especially as new crop prospects become clearer with ongoing weather developments.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product/Grade	Current Price (EUR)	Forecast Trend (3 days)	Comment
Malatya, TR	No: 1, natural	9.7	Stable/Firm	Ramadan demand, scarce supply supports prices
Malatya, TR	No: 4, natural	8.9	Stable	Abundant supply, minimal price movement
Malatya, TR	No: 1, lerida	11.0	Slightly Bullish	Premium for high quality, limited quantity
Aydın, TR	Domestic Market	400–700 TL/kg	Stable/Bullish	Strong local and export demand continues