Malatya Apricots at a Crossroads: Rising Temps, Farmers’ Hopes & Price Steadiness

The Turkish apricot market, with Malatya at its core, is now navigating a complex and delicate phase marked by wild weather swings and cautious optimism among growers. Recently, the Aegean region faced heavy rainfall, while Malatya—renowned globally as the principal production zone for apricots—has been warming, providing grounds for hope among farmers battered by last year’s devastating frost. Notably, while no immediate agricultural frost threatens, rain is forecast to return by the weekend. Since apricot trees blossom earlier than many other fruit crops, a sustained “warm spell” over the coming months would allow these vital trees to flower, laying the foundation for a potential bumper harvest.

Yet, the shadow of April’s historic frost lingers. Many growers, still reeling from reduced yields and income losses, are banking on the current favorable early-season conditions. Preparations across the region are in full swing; increased investments in frost-mitigation underscore both hard-earned lessons and resilient spirit. All eyes are now on evolving weather patterns in the weeks ahead, as a stable, frost-free spring becomes the linchpin for both price stability and production recovery. Dried apricot prices, meanwhile, reflect market steadiness—suggesting buyers and sellers are closely watching Mother Nature’s next move.

📈 Apricot Prices Table

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Apricots dried, no: 5, unsulphured	TR	Malatya	FOB	8.00	8.00	2026-02-18	Neutral
Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured, organic	TR	Ankara	FOB	9.40	9.40	2026-02-18	Neutral
Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured	TR	Malatya	FOB	8.10	8.10	2026-02-18	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Recent heavy rainfall in the Aegean contrasts with steadily warming weather in Malatya, Turkey’s apricot heartland.
• No imminent frost risk means early apricot blossoms are likely, assuming sustained warmth continues.
• Farmers affected by last spring’s devastating frost are proactively investing in anti-frost precautions this season, potentially boosting both short-term supply security and longer-term yield prospects.
• Stable prices observed in export-oriented FOB offers for unsulphured dried apricots indicate a market in balance, with buyers awaiting new crop signals before repositioning.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Production Outlook: The absence of frost so far and rising temperatures bode well for 2026 crop prospects, provided the warming trend persists.
• Stocks & Inventories: No significant inventory pressure is reported, with old-crop stocks likely depleted after last year’s losses.
• Farmer Sentiment: Progressive adoption of frost protection (netting, heating, and irrigation) signals high engagement and risk management post-2025 losses.
• Speculation: No evidence of speculative price movements—steady offer prices on key lines like unsulphured no: 5 validate calm market sentiment.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• Malatya: Warm trend early in the week, with predicted rainfall towards the weekend; NO agricultural frost risk now, but vigilance needed through March/April.
• Aegean Region: Heavy rains likely benefit water tables and tree vigor—but excessive wetness could elevate disease risk if it continues.
• Potential Impact: Early, uninterrupted warmth would trigger apricot blossom, raising yield potential. Any late frost would again threaten production, as seen in 2025.

🌎 Global Context (Production & Stock Comparison)

• Turkey remains unchallenged as the dominant global producer of dried apricots, with Malatya responsible for the vast majority of exports.
• Other key producing regions (Uzbekistan, Iran) do not report major concerns or disruptions at this stage, maintaining historic balance of supply.
• Importing countries (EU, USA) likely monitoring Turkish weather closely—delayed offers or rising premiums could quickly follow any adverse weather.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ➡️ Sellers: Hold firm on current offers while closely watching weather patterns up to and through the prime bloom/frost vulnerability window (March-April).
• ➡️ Buyers: Secure minimum contract volumes now to hedge against possible price spikes if frost risk resurfaces.
• ❗ All market participants: Remain vigilant—price stability is linked directly to daily Malatya climate developments, and sentiment can pivot quickly on any adverse forecast.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Malatya, FOB Unsulphured Dried Apricots (No: 4, 5, 6): EUR 8.0–8.2/kg – Stable; no adjustment expected, pending weekend weather events.
• Ankara, Organic Unsulphured: EUR 9.3–9.4/kg – Stable.
• Dordrecht (NL), Cubes: EUR 5.4–6.2/kg – Stable.

Short-term stability is expected unless Malatya experiences unexpected frost or severe rain. Market should be watched closely as March unfolds.

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