Rapeseed Market: Volatile on Oil, Trade Policy & Rising Canola Demand

The rapeseed market is currently navigating a landscape shaped by international political tensions, shifting trade policies, and tightly intertwined oilseed markets. Trading activity on Euronext (MATIF) displayed relatively stable price action in the latest sessions, with no significant daily change reported across all key contracts, suggesting a period of market consolidation after recent volatility. Behind this stability, significant factors continue to stir the fundamentals of the market: heightened concerns over oil supply have sent Brent crude prices to an eight-month high, while trade disputes—especially new US tariffs—are impacting oilseed flows globally.

Notably, the US Supreme Court’s overturning of certain Trump-era tariffs was viewed as bearish for the US soybean market, strengthening Brazil’s competitive edge and potentially increasing China’s reliance on alternative oilseeds. In a bullish twist for canola, expectations are high for an imminent easing of Chinese import restrictions on Canadian rapeseed, which has already buoyed ICE canola futures. Meanwhile, export demand and speculative positioning remain strong, as reflected in robust US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export data and growing net-long positions among funds. Despite external pressures such as sluggish palm oil exports and variable soyoil prices, the rapeseed market is bracing for short-term shifts as global players react to evolving policy, weather, and demand-side signals.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Currency	Weekly Change (%)	Volume	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	488.50	EUR/t	0.00	2	Neutral/Stabilizing
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 26	468.50	EUR/t	0.00	1	Neutral/Stabilizing
Euronext (MATIF)	Nov 26	471.00	EUR/t	0.00	5	Neutral/Stabilizing
ICE (Canola)	May 26	686.70	CAD/t	+0.31	35,494	Bullish
Current Offers FR (Paris)	Rape seeds	0.55	EUR/kg	0.00	–	Flat
Current Offers UA (Kyiv)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	0.59	EUR/kg	0.00	–	Flat
Current Offers UA (Odesa)	Rape seeds 42% min oil	0.61	EUR/kg	0.00	–	Flat

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Profit taking led to a weaker close for oilseed markets, but strong crude oil limited downside.
• Brent crude surged 5.9% to a recent high of $71.76/barrel amid escalating US-Iran tensions, lending cost support across oilseeds.
• US Supreme Court’s reversal of Trump-era tariffs is bearish for US soybeans, pushing China toward Brazilian beans.
• New temporary US tariffs could create uncertainty but are seen as less impactful—only 150 days duration.
• ICE Canola rose after the court decision, with speculation that China will import more Canadian rapeseed due to reduced US beans/offers.
• USDA weekly data showed strong soybean, soymeal, and soyoil exports—positive for underlying oilseed demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• USDA weekly export sales: Net for soybeans 798,200 t (current year), 66,000 t (next year)—well above last year.
• China remains the dominant buyer, with significant volumes also to Egypt and Japan.
• Data from CFTC: Funds increased net-long positions in CBOT soybeans by 40,463 contracts, reflecting bullish speculator sentiment.
• ICE Canola: May contract up 2.10 CAD/t on the day, up 1.7% for the week—demonstrates strong market confidence in Canadian rapeseed prospects.
• Palm oil futures fell on Friday but held a weekly gain (+1%). Concerns of overproduction and sluggish export pace persist.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Weather in the EU and Black Sea region has been seasonally mild; no major weather events reported.
• Canadian Prairie conditions remain stable, with expectations for average-to-above-average spring planting progress.
• Watch for climate change risk: Extreme dryness/wet periods could emerge and would need fast response from market.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country/Zone	2025/26 Output (‘000 t)	Stocks (‘000 t)	Comments
EU	~18,000	Low/Declining	Flat plantings, stable yield expectation
Ukraine	~4,000	Moderate	Good export capacity, weather watch
Canada	20,000+	Improving	Expected boost from China demand
China	~15,000 (imports)	Building	Shift from US soybeans to canola/rapeseed

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term consolidation: Euronext prices are steady; wait for a fresh catalyst (weather/event/policy) before new positions.
• Bullish bias on canola: Watch ICE contracts for possible breakout if China’s new import regime materializes.
• Monitor US/China trade talks: Changes in US tariffs directly impact oilseed flows and sentiment.
• Keep an eye on crude oil: Strong oil prices support oilseed crush margins and biofuel demand.
• Speculators: CFTC data suggests continued inflows into bullish bets—momentum trades possible, but watch for reversal.
• For physicals: Lock in offers on current spot rapeseed/canola, especially for EU and Black Sea origins, as global arbitrage shifts in response to trade news.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Direction	Target Range	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	Sideways/Up	486–491 EUR/t	Neutral-Firm
ICE (Canola)	May 26	Up	684–693 CAD/t	Bullish
Physical Offers FR/UA	Spot	Sideways	0.55–0.61 EUR/kg	Flat/Firm