Hazelnut Prices Under Pressure: Quality Rejections & Demand Weakness Intensify Market Strain

The Turkish hazelnut market—central to global supply—finds itself navigating an exceptionally turbulent phase. February 2026 reports reveal deep structural cracks, with prolonged price erosion and widespread dissatisfaction across the sector. Once reliably strong, Turkish hazelnut prices have fallen sharply, hit by both weak demand and a market split between strict quality enforcement by the industry leader and a deeply discounted, fragmented free market. Recent inspection tightening by the leading buyer is resulting in significantly higher rejection rates; some market sources suggest up to one in three batches are now refused due to high defect rates and elevated FFA levels.

These rejected lots, sourced at a premium, are redirected to the free market at much lower prices—further weighing on broader price levels and squeezing margins for contracted suppliers. Meanwhile, the free market grapples with limited export interest, oversupply of small-caliber kernels, mounting price competition, and speculative expectations of further price drops. Despite a small crop and quality setbacks from earlier frost, downward pressure persists, with local traders beginning to liquidate stocks. With high financing costs, inflation in Turkey near 30%, and a stagnant currency, both exporters and farmers alike face challenging economics. Unless a rebound in demand or decisive strategic purchases emerge, the Turkish hazelnut sector remains vulnerable to even deeper price declines before the new harvest.

📈 Prices

Price action remains sharply negative. Central prices for DAP Central Europe (11-13 mm g/n, current crop) are:

Category	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Quarterly Performance (%)	Market Sentiment
Conventional Raw	€10.82	-9.85%	-21.60%	Bearish
Organic Raw	€12.75	-9.85%	-21.60%	Bearish

Supplementary Spot Prices (23 Feb 2026):

Product	Origin	Location	Price (€/kg)	Change
Natural, 13-15mm	TR	Istanbul	€10.42	-5.6%
Natural, 11-13mm	TR	Istanbul	€9.84	-5.8%
Roasted, meal	TR	Istanbul	€8.65	-1.7%

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Market Leader’s Channel: Facing strict quality specs; up to 33% rejection rates due to high defective kernel and FFA levels. Sourcing high-quality replacement goods is costly and tight. Limited short-term procurement pressure as leader enforces standards.
• Free Market: Overhang of inferior/discounted goods; export demand remains very soft. Domestic buyers are inactive or waiting for further declines. Processed kernel/paste prices fragmented and subject to intense competition.
• Export Trend: Historically low volumes. Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile, and USA gain acceptance as alternative suppliers with competitive quality/price.

📊 Fundamentals

• Bullish:
  • Subpar Turkish crop: Kernel yield ~41% vs 50% norm
  • Market leader support stabilizes select segments
  • Rising input & labor costs across Turkey
  • Turkish inflation at approx. 30%
• Bearish:
  • Acceptability and supply from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Chile, USA
  • If leader completes quota, demand may collapse further
  • Ongoing weak export figures and high supply of small kernels
  • High domestic financing costs discourage long stock positions
  • Short-term favorable weather for upcoming Turkish crop (see below)

🌤 Weather Outlook

• Current conditions: Unseasonably warm along Turkish Black Sea coast
• Crop development too early to judge but so far benign for next harvest; blossom counts in March will bring more clarity

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

• Turkey: Dominates global exports despite small/low-quality 2025/26 crop; severe quality challenges and sectoral stress
• Azerbaijan/Georgia/Chile/USA: Export volumes and quality increasingly accepted by buyers, providing viable alternatives
• Europe: Central buyer/destination—processors still drawing from Turkish supply but increasing risk diversity

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Downside risk persists unless significant recovery in demand; further price drops of 25–30% likely needed to stimulate broad trade before new harvest
• Quality-certified supply will remain at a premium; expect even sharper discounts for small/defective goods
• Exporters/advisors should prioritize liquidity management and closely track blossom/outlook reports in March
• Buyers: Consider staged purchases of high-grade material if supply tightening appears
• Producers: Assess realistic margin/risk tolerance—the economics for small to mid-size farms remain challenging at current levels

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Location/Exchange	Product/Spec	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast Range (€/kg)	Trend
Istanbul (FOB)	Raw, 13-15mm	€10.42	€10.20 – €10.60	Stable/Weak
Istanbul (FOB)	Raw, 11-13mm	€9.84	€9.65 – €10.00	Weak/Bearish
Central Europe (DAP)	Raw, 11-13mm	€10.82	€10.60 – €10.90	Weak/Bearish

Outlook remains weak amid persistent oversupply, elevated quality risks, and limited near-term demand triggers. March’s blossom count is the next key watch item for strategic repositioning.