Pistachio Market Faces Shifting Fortunes Amid 8% Global Output Drop for 2025/26

The global pistachio market is entering a period of notable turbulence, with substantial regional divergences in production shaping the landscape for the 2025/26 season (September 2025–August 2026). An anticipated 8% contraction in global output to 1.1 million metric tons (in-shell basis) is poised to set the tone, affecting both supply and consumption patterns. This decrease is primarily linked to sharp reductions in major producers Turkey, Iran, and Syria, which are only partially offset by a record surge in U.S. production. Such a shift is expected to lead to tighter supplies and greater competition in export markets, while global consumption is projected to retreat by 4% to meet the lower availability.

Nevertheless, global exports are forecast to reach an all-time high, buoyed by U.S. shipping strength, while ending stocks remain nearly stable. This evolving environment underscores the necessity for close monitoring, particularly in light of weather adversities, irrigation challenges, and cyclical crop dynamics that continue to disrupt key producing regions. In an already demand-sensitive premium nut market, these developments may translate into volatile prices, changing trade flows, and new opportunities for agile participants.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Market	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US (Reference)	N/A	N/A	Bullish (U.S. supply up, global shortage)
EU (Reference Import Price)	N/A	N/A	Stable to bullish (higher import demand)
Iran Export (Tehran)	N/A	N/A	Firm (production down, exports curtailed)

Note: Specific up-to-date price data is currently unavailable. Market sentiment remains bullish for U.S. origin, firm for Iran, and stable to bullish in the EU, with expectations of upward price pressure as global supplies tighten.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global output down 8% to 1.1 million tons, led by sharp declines in Turkey (down 70%) and Iran (down 11%), offset by a 43% U.S. crop surge.
• World consumption to drop 4% in response to lower supplies.
• Exports projected at a record 683,000 tons, mainly due to increased U.S. shipments.
• U.S. ending stocks to more than double as production rebounds.
• Global ending stocks to remain nearly flat, highlighting market balance despite output swings.
• EU imports rising (+10%), led by increased U.S. supplies.
• China imports down nearly 15% as demand softens during key buying windows.

📊 Fundamentals: Regional Breakdown

Country/Region	2025/26 Output (000 t)	Key Change	Export Forecast (000 t)	Consumption Trend	Stock Outlook
U.S.	713 (+43%)	On-year of alternate crop cycle	425	+13% (record)	+100% (to 131)
Iran	200 (-11%)	Heat, drought, irrigation issues	175 (-20%)	Decreasing	Not specified
Turkey	120 (-70%)	Off-year, frost/drought southeast	Minor (mostly domestic)	Flat (mainly local usage)	Not specified
EU (Total)	40 (+8%)	Italy ↑, Spain ↓	N/A	N/A	N/A
China (import)	N/A	Weaker Lunar New Year demand	N/A	-15% import demand	N/A

• U.S. emerges as dominant global player in both production and export terms, set to capture market share lost by Middle Eastern rivals.
• Iran faces acute weather and infrastructure challenges, curtailing its traditional export dominance.
• Turkey’s output collapse is cyclical but intensified by weather adversity, reinforcing reliance on imports and limited export activity.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• U.S.: Entering an “on-year” in the alternate bearing cycle with favorable weather expected to support the bumper crop. Caution: Ongoing monitoring of late-season conditions is still required.
• Iran: Trees have suffered significant heat and drought stress, notably during the critical flowering and bud formation stages, compounded by irrigation interruptions from electricity shortages.
• Turkey: Facing a double hit—deep cyclical “off-year” with compounded impacts from late frosts and drought, especially across southeastern growing regions.
• EU: Firm Italian production offsets declines in Spain—overall a net gain for EU output, although dwarfed by U.S. gains.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

2025/26 Output (000 t in-shell)	U.S.	Iran	Turkey	EU
Production	713	200	120	40
Exports	425	175	Minor	N/A
Ending Stocks	131	Not Specified	Not Specified	N/A

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish for U.S. origin pistachios: With global shortage, U.S. prices are likely to firm as buyers seek alternatives to Middle East supplies.
• Watch for volatility in Iran & Turkey pricing amid limited output—premium possible for remaining origins.
• EU importers: Anticipate rising costs, especially if U.S. stocks are drawn down rapidly by Asian or domestic demand.
• Chinese buyers: May reassess timing and volumes of imports, with New Year demand somewhat muted.
• Speculators: Consider long positions on U.S. output, with a view to possible upside shocks if further supply issues emerge globally.

📌 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional)

• U.S. (Reference): Stable to slightly higher. Market awaiting further clarity on Asian/European contract activity.
• EU Imports: Stable, moderate upward pressure expected as importers seek to secure volume ahead of potential U.S. stock drawdowns.
• Iran (Export): Firm amid lower available volume, with risk of further increases if logistical or currency disruptions emerge.