Almonds in Flux: Local Decline, Global Imports & the Changing Orchard Landscape

The almond sector in South Kashmir offers a striking example of how climate, market forces, and agricultural policy can reshape entire rural landscapes. Once a mainstay of upland horticulture in districts such as Anantnag, almonds have been crowded out by a wave of high-density apple orchards and shifting weather patterns. Local growers describe a slow, painful exit from almonds—driven by falling prices, unpredictable output, and chronic vulnerability to erratic rainfall, blossom frost, and newer fungal threats.

With limited government focus on almond technical support and a stronger subsidy push for apples, this once-predominant crop now covers a tiny and stagnant area. The region’s trajectory hints at deeper market dynamics, including competition from Californian imports and consumer preference for standardized products, which have locked local producers out of the best channels. Meanwhile, global almond prices have stabilized, reflecting solid production in dominant export regions. Yet in Kashmir, the contraction in acreage and output has become permanent—signaling a profound structural change in agricultural livelihoods and the regional economy.

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📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date
Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr, 18/20	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.72	6.72	2026-02-21
Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr, 20/22	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.68	6.68	2026-02-20
Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (organic)	US	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.33	9.33	2026-02-20

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date
Almond kernels, marcona, 12/14	ES	Madrid	FOB	6.60	6.70	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, marcona, 14/16	ES	Madrid	FOB	8.20	8.30	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, marcona, S/16	ES	Madrid	FOB	8.85	8.95	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, valencia, 10/12	ES	Madrid	FOB	5.60	5.70	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, valencia, 12/14	ES	Madrid	FOB	5.55	5.65	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, valencia + 14 mm	ES	Madrid	FOB	5.90	6.00	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, guara bajo, 12	ES	Madrid	FOB	5.58	5.68	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, guara, 12/14 MMS	ES	Madrid	FOB	5.90	6.00	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, guara, S/14	ES	Madrid	FOB	6.10	6.20	2026-02-20
Almond kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (organic)	ES	Madrid	FOB	11.50	11.60	2026-02-20

🌍 Supply & Demand

• South Kashmir decline: Almond orchards in Bijbehara/Srigufwara fell from 225 ha (2008/09; 112 MT) to just 8 ha/8 MT by 2016-17 and have not recovered since.
• Main drivers of decline: Unpredictable weather during flowering (rain, late frost, early/late snow), warmer winters (less chilling), increased pest/disease, and better economics for apples.
• Regional switch to apples: Apple cultivation offers quick returns, is supported by subsidies, and features better technical/marketing infrastructure, accelerating the conversion from almonds.
• Global market: California and Spain dominate global supply, with Californian product preferred in many import markets due to consistency.
• Demand impacts: Local market demand for Kashmiri almonds is weakened by steady imports, retail standardization, and consumer preferences for large, uniform kernels.

📊 Fundamental Drivers

• Persistent reduction in local output—long-term, not cyclical. South Kashmir’s almond sector is at its structural minimum.
• Almond farm economics in Kashmir undercut by climate instability, lack of technical support, and more attractive alternatives (apples).
• Imported almonds—especially from California (US) and Spain—set the market price and quality benchmarks for both commercial users and high-end retail in Europe and Asia.
• Farmers cite constraints including credit, lack of cold chain, poor local processing, and competition from subsidized apples.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Key weather risks for South Kashmir: untimely rainfall during bloom, frost, and unseasonable temperature swings (warmer winters limit chilling, leading to reduced set).
• Other major production regions (California, Spain): Current reports indicate average weather conditions, with adequate chilling hours; no major adverse weather events reported in early 2026.
• The regional weather remains the most critical variable for any recovery in Kashmiri almond yields, but current data show no area or productivity recovery yet.

🌐 Global Stocks & Production

• South Kashmir: Current output stabilized at just 8 MT; local industry structurally marginalized.
• US (California): Remains top global producer, exporting at stable or slightly firmer prices, with 2026 outlook supported by strong carryover stocks.
• Spain: Maintains robust output; Spanish almonds, especially Marcona and Valencia types, are in steady demand in Mediterranean, EU, and Middle Eastern markets.

🔎 Market Drivers

• Climate volatility impacting yield security in marginal production regions (e.g., Kashmir).
• Competitive pricing and product uniformity from leading exporters (especially US, Spain).
• Sharply declining local production in South Kashmir is now permanent, with no signal of resurgence.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Origin focus: South Kashmir no longer a significant origin; procurement focus remains on California and Spain for volume users.
• Bullish for California standard grades if global demand rises or adverse weather hits Spain/California in 2026.
• Kashmiri origin now essentially a niche/local/gourmet product, with minor volume and lack of tradability.
• Track climate risk in California and Spain for potential price volatility triggers.
• End-users advised to secure contracts for key Marcona/Nonpareil types as prices have recently stabilized off lows.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Trend	Sentiment
Washington D.C. (FAS/FOB)	US (Calif.)	6.68–9.33	Stable – Slightly Firm	Neutral-Bullish
Madrid (FOB)	Spain	5.55–11.50	Stable	Neutral
South Kashmir	India (local)	NA (negligible trade)	Flat	Marginalized