Rapeseed Market Climbs: Canola Rally, US-China Tariffs & Soy Delays Stir Volatility

The rapeseed market ended the session grappling with a unique blend of supportive and cautionary influences. At the core, European and Canadian futures for rapeseed and canola showed firm to rising tendencies, with traders balancing optimism from North American developments against persistent global uncertainties. Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed contracts closed unchanged, yet strong Canadian canola advances gave underlying firmness, propelling market sentiment despite the broader oilseed complex facing headwinds from lower US soybean exports and a faltering palm oil market.

With Brazil’s soybean harvest lagging—raising supply risk—traders eyed the US-China trade hostilities, as new tariffs ushered in a reshuffling of global oilseed trade flows. Expectations remain high for rapeseed/canola, should Chinese buyers diversify away from US soy, amplifying export hopes for European and Canadian suppliers. At the same time, weather uncertainties in Brazil underline lingering risks for South American yields, offering indirect support to rapeseed’s competitive position. On the technical front, Euronext open interest and trading volumes reflect restrained but stable activity, with spot-to-forward curves remaining mostly flat amid expectations for fundamental softness in the near term. As the market tracks inter-commodity spreads and weather developments, participants should remain vigilant—prepared for abrupt changes tied to geopolitics, South American harvests, and speculative flow.

📈 Prices: Rapeseed/Canola Futures & Physicals

Exchange/Location	Contract/Spec	Last Price	Change (WoW)	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€490.25/t	0.00%	Neutral/Firm
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 26	€470.75/t	0.00%	Stable
ICE Canada (Winnipeg)	May 26	CAD 689.00/t	+0.33%	Firm/Supportive
ICE Canada (Winnipeg)	Jul 26	CAD 699.60/t	+0.36%	Firm
Physical: Paris FOB	Rape seeds	€0.55/kg	0.00%	Unchanged
Physical: Kyiv FCA	Rape seeds 42% min oil	€0.59/kg	0.00%	Steady
Physical: Odesa FCA	Rape seeds 42% min oil	€0.61/kg	0.00%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand: Structural Drivers

• Canadian Canola: ICE Winnipeg canola futures rose for the fourth consecutive session, underpinning Euronext rapeseed. Improved marketing prospects amid the US-China tariff standoff favor alternative exporters.
• EU Rapeseed: Euronext contracts remained stable, but carryover strength is visible due to robust export prospects and inter-market support from canola and soya oil.
• South America: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest continues to lag (30% complete vs. 39% prior year), threatened by adverse weather—potentially tightening global oilseed availability.
• US Soya: US soybean exports fell sharply (down 45% week-on-week; 32% YOY), with China remaining the principal buyer but with a clear downtrend, favoring alternative oilseeds if trade tensions persist.
• Palm Oil: Weakness in Kuala Lumpur futures, driven by bearish soya oil spreads, caps enthusiasm for global vegoil benchmarks but does not offset strong canola/rapeseed sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals: Inventories, Trade & Policy

• US trade policy uncertainty and retaliatory tariffs after a Supreme Court setback stir volatility across oilseed markets, benefitting exporters like Canada and the EU.
• Forward Euronext rapeseed contracts display stable open interest, suggesting cautious optimism without speculative overreach.
• Physical market for EU and Ukrainian rapeseed is steady; offers show no significant price change over the week.
• USDA data highlight a steep drop in US soybean exports, reinforcing global market share for EU/canola exporters.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Harvest Progress

• Brazil: Historic delays in soybean harvesting (worst since 2020/21) attributed to late planting, longer vegetative phases, and patchy rainfall—especially in Rio Grande do Sul—keep yields at risk.
• EU: Mild late-winter weather has supported overwintering rapeseed conditions in Western and Central Europe, but risk of spring drought episodes remains a watchpoint as crop enters sensitive phases.
• Northern Plains & Canada: No major disruptions currently; moisture and temperature outlooks are broadly favorable, underpinning positive canola crop prospects if trends persist.

🌐 Major Producer Stocks & Export Dynamics

Country/Region	2025/26 Output Trend	Stock/Export Situation
EU (France, Germany, CEE)	Stable/Modest Recovery	Healthy stocks, firm export outlook
Canada	Recovery after 2023 drought	Stocks rebuilding, active export program
Ukraine	Good crop, strong supply lines	Robust FOB/FCA offers, logistics reliable
China (Import)	Shifting toward alternative suppliers	Lower US purchases, higher EU/Canada interest
Brazil/Argentina	Harvest delays, output risk	Pace lags, global balance tighter if weather worsens

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Firm undertone for rapeseed/canola with stable futures, support from Canadian price gains, and weak soy trade flows.
• 📌 Downside risk could emerge if Brazil harvest pace accelerates or tariff situation de-escalates rapidly; watch South American weather headlines closely.
• 📌 Physical buyers should monitor offers; values remain unchanged in Paris, Kyiv, and Odesa, suggesting time to lock in nearby demand is now if risk tolerance allows.
• 📌 Exporters: Good window as global supply stress in soybeans extends—capitalize on Chinese diversification from US purchases.
• 📌 Speculators: Maintain neutral-to-firm bias, with upside optionality tied to ongoing trade tensions and Brazilian harvest risk.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Direction	Comment
Euronext (MATIF)	Steady – Slightly Firm	Canola/soy support, thin volumes
ICE Canada	Slightly Higher	Trade optimism, speculative interest
Ukraine (FCA)	Stable	Good shipping pace, logistical calm