Rapeseed Prices Under Pressure: Market Correction Ahead After Rally?

The rapeseed market is at a crucial crossroads. After a strong upward trend over recent weeks, a surprising and sharp drop in Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed prices was recorded midweek, shaking confidence in sustained bullish momentum. This correction has been catalyzed by a dual dynamic: European farmers, incentivized by elevated prices, increased the marketing of remaining old-crop stocks, adding pressure to supply. Meanwhile, investors who had recently bet heavily on price rises took profit, accelerating the downturn. Still, speculative interest remains historically high, with net long positions up from 51,338 to 55,801 contracts in the week to February 20. These forces signal uncertainty and potential for further correction, rather than a clear market reversal. External oilseed dynamics add complexity: US soybeans surged for a third consecutive day, fueled by strong soymeal prices due to adverse Argentinian weather and robust US demand forecasts for soy oil in biodiesel. However, vegetable oil prices are mixed globally. Against this backdrop, European rapeseed remains susceptible to short-term corrections—and the current price zone offers a timely opportunity for producers to sell residual old-crop volumes before further pressure mounts.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext MATIF	May 2026	484.25 EUR/t	0.00%	Correction after rally Downward pressure
Euronext MATIF	Nov 2026	473.00 EUR/t	0.00%	Stabilizing after drop
ICE Canola	May 2026	693.00 CAD/t	+0.23%	Modest strength persists

Physical Market Samples:

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Change
UA	Kyiv	FCA	0.58	-0.01
UA	Odesa	FCA	0.60	-0.01
FR	Paris	FOB	0.55	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong Producer Selling: High price levels prompted increased sales of old-crop rapeseed, raising immediate supply and intensifying downward price momentum.
• Speculative Positioning: Financial investors increased net long positions to 55,801 contracts (vs. 51,338 prior week), underscoring continued speculative optimism, though ripe for profit-taking.
• Oilseed Complex Influence: US soybean strength is supported by tight soymeal supply (due to Argentina’s hot, dry weather) and anticipated growth in US biodiesel use. However, palm oil has weakened for four consecutive sessions, and global vegetable oil prices are mixed.
• Export Data Watch: USDA’s upcoming weekly export sales report expected to show moderate US soybean sales (0.4-1m t), and possible decline in soy oil exports, keeping attention on global oilseed flows.

📊 Fundamentals

• Stocks: Net long speculation is at the highest level of the season, but rapid profit-taking is exposing the market to volatile corrections.
• European Crop: The recent rally has not spurred a clear bullish trend reversal, and medium-term risks of correction remain valid, especially with current inventory clearances.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• Europe: No explicit severe weather disruptions noted; stable for late-winter field conditions. Late frosts and rainfall patterns will be watched as spring fieldwork begins.
• Argentina: Hot, dry conditions stress crops, supporting global soymeal and indirectly buoying oilseed prices; risk persists if these weather trends continue.
• North America: Stable for now but closely monitoring prospects for US spring plantings and potential shifts toward soybeans for biodiesel sectors.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Rapeseed: EU remains primary producer/exporter, but external competition from Canadian canola and Ukrainian supplies is robust.
• Oilseed Complex: Soybeans (US, Brazil, Argentina), Canola (Canada), Palm (SEA) remain major influences on rapeseed pricing through interconnected oil and meal markets.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term corrections likely as speculative longs unwind and sellers clear old-crop stocks.
• Use current price strength to liquidate remaining old-crop quantities.
• Close monitoring required of US soy/diesel policy—if approved, could support oilseed markets longer-term.
• Keep an eye on Argentine weather—escalation could further tighten soymeal, supporting oilseed prices.
• Medium-term risks for a deeper correction if fund selling intensifies and physical supply builds.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Trend	Forecast Range
Euronext MATIF (May 26)	Bearish-to-neutral	475 – 485 EUR/t
Euronext MATIF (Nov 26)	Slight downside bias	463 – 473 EUR/t
ICE Canola (May 26)	Sideways	685 – 695 CAD/t