Bulgaria’s Tree Nut Market Expands Rapidly – Record Walnut Imports, Almonds Under Price Pressure

Bulgaria’s Tree Nut Market Expands Rapidly – Record Walnut Imports, Almonds Under Price Pressure

CMB News | Tree Nuts | February 2026

Bulgaria’s tree nut market recorded strong growth in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, driven by rising incomes, easing inflation, and a dynamic tourism sector. Consumption reached new highs, while trade flows shifted significantly — particularly in walnuts and peanuts.

The following analysis is based on the USDA/FAS report “Tree Nut Market Update – Bulgaria” (BU2026-0001) .

---

Consumption Reaches New Records

• Per capita consumption (CY 2024): +12.5% to 1.8 kg
• Retail market value (CY 2025): approx. BGN 138 million (~USD 80 million)
• Forecast by 2030: growth to BGN 161 million

Strong-performing segments include roasted nuts (+10.4% value growth), raw nuts (+11.6% value growth), protein snacks, and plant-based milk alternatives.

Walnut consumption reached a new record of 10,864 MT in MY 2024/25. Almond consumption also hit a peak at 3,230 MT.

---

Production: Weather-Driven Volatility

MY 2024/25

• Almonds: 1,140 MT (+83%)
• Walnuts: 4,240 MT (+23%)

The recovery was mainly driven by improved yields and increased harvested area.

MY 2025/26 Outlook

• Almonds: projected decline to ~650 MT
• Walnuts: projected decline to ~3,500 MT

A severe summer drought in 2025 is expected to reduce domestic supply significantly, increasing reliance on imports .

---

Trade: Record Imports Despite Higher Prices

Almonds

• Imports MY 2024/25: 2,673 MT (−8.9%)
• Import value: USD 16.9 million (+11.7%)
• Average price: USD 6,326/MT (+22%)

The United States remains the dominant supplier with a 64% market share.

In early MY 2025/26, import prices were already 37% higher year-on-year, yet volumes increased by 19%, reflecting resilient demand.

---

Walnuts

• Imports MY 2024/25: 8,297 MT (+70.5%)
• Import value: USD 15.0 million (+80.6%)
• Average price: USD 1,813/MT (+6%)

Main suppliers:

• China (70% share in shelled walnuts)
• Ukraine (15%)

In October 2025, walnut import prices dropped by 33%, triggering a surge in volumes (+500% year-on-year for the month). This suggests continued consumption growth potential.

---

Pistachios

• Imports: 1,423 MT (+8.8%)
• Import value: USD 14.3 million (+57%)
• Price increase: +45%

The U.S. remains the leading supplier, although high prices limited volume growth.

---

Peanuts (Non-Tree Nuts)

• Imports MY 2024/25: 19,648 MT (+27%)
• Import value: USD 27 million (+16%)
• Average price: −8.5%

Argentina dominates with a 52% market share. U.S. peanuts lost share due to stronger price competitiveness from South America.

---

Processing & Confectionery Industry

Bulgaria’s confectionery sector continues to expand:

• Exports of bakery and confectionery products (2024): USD 424 million (+7%)
• Jan–Oct 2025: +23% year-on-year growth

Nuts are increasingly used in waffles, biscuits, chocolate products, protein snacks, and plant-based dairy alternatives. Industrial demand remains a structural growth driver.

---

Market Outlook MY 2025/26

The market is expected to remain stable but with slower volume growth:

• Lower domestic harvest → higher import dependency
• Import price developments will be decisive for consumption
• China and Ukraine continue gaining market share in walnuts
• Almond demand remains highly price-sensitive

Bulgaria is evolving into an increasingly import-driven nut market with solid structural demand, though consumption remains strongly influenced by global price movements.