Australian Almond Sales Drop Sharply but International Demand and Prices Remain Strong

The global almond market is witnessing a fascinating interplay of contrasting forces as the 2025-26 Australian almond season nears its end. January’s sales from Australian growers plummeted by 43% compared to the same month last year, affirming industry reports that inventory levels are bottoming out. Despite this significant monthly downturn, cumulative sales for the season remain resilient—down merely 11% from last season’s record, with volumes already marking the second-highest ever recorded. This outcome has pleasantly surprised many, as yields outperformed subdued expectations and provided crucial economic support to growers, who also benefitted from improved international almond prices throughout the season. The market’s focus now turns to the upcoming harvest. Heavy rainfall in key growing areas has delayed field activities, requiring enhanced drying protocols and complicating logistics for processors and packers. Nevertheless, demand for Australian almonds continues to show strength, underpinned by firm pricing. These dynamics set the stage for an intriguing close to the current season and shape expectations for the next.

📈 Almond Market Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
US	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.81	6.76	+0.74%	Firm
US	Carmel, SSR 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.78	6.73	+0.74%	Firm
US	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.42	9.38	+0.43%	Steady
Spain	Valencia, 10/12	Madrid	FOB	5.70	5.65	+0.88%	Firm
Spain	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Madrid	FOB	11.55	11.55	0.00%	Stable/High-End

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Australian supply: January almond sales fell 43% YOY; season-to-date volumes are down 11% but remain historically high due to unexpectedly strong yields.
• Inventory: Industry data confirms inventory levels are at seasonal lows, supporting firm prices.
• Demand: International demand remains robust for Australian almonds, buoying prices and providing economic relief to growers.
• Harvest delays: Prolonged heavy rains in Australia have slowed harvests, requiring special drying procedures for quality assurance.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Sales: Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 season are already the second-highest ever, despite recent monthly decline.
• Economic impact: Growers have benefited from stronger international pricing despite lower overall volume.
• Price trends: Most quoted almond prices in both the US and EU market hubs have firmed by 0.4% to 0.9% week-on-week, reflecting ongoing market support.

🌦️ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• Australia: Heavy rainfall in major almond regions has delayed field operations and harvest. Enhanced drying is now essential to maintain kernel quality as wet conditions persist.
• Impact: Wet weather may risk crop quality if rain continues; logistical challenges expected through the final phase of processing.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• Australia: Significant recent supplier; season ending with historically low inventories.
• United States: Largest global producer and exporter; current export prices are stable to slightly firm.
• Spain: Major supplier to the EU; prices show a slight upward trend with tight organic supply keeping premiums high.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Fundamentals remain tight for Australian almonds as the season ends. Prices are well-supported by low stocks and resilient demand.
• Weather risks—in the form of rain and delayed harvest—could further tighten supply and support prices if quality issues remain limited.
• End-buyers should consider forward purchases to secure volumes before potential new season price volatility.
• Exporters and processors should focus on quality preservation through enhanced drying and swift logistics.
• Monitor Southern Hemisphere weather closely; adverse developments may trigger additional price firming.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region / Exchange	Product / Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
US (Washington D.C., FAS)	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	6.81	6.80 – 6.85	Firm
Spain (Madrid, FOB)	Valencia, 10/12	5.70	5.70 – 5.75	Firm
Spain (Madrid, FOB)	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	11.55	11.50 – 11.60	Stable/High-End