Aegean Heatwave Squeezes Figs Market: Yields Drop, Prices Hold Firm

The 2025 fig season opens with a tense mood on global markets as Turkish growers—predominantly in the drought-stricken Aegean region—face a sharply reduced harvest. Early domestic arrivals are met with both relief and anxiety: while the crop is coming in on schedule, relentless heat and scarce rainfall are reducing fig volumes and threatening quality. Notably, the excessive drought has led to premature fruit shedding, a process that accelerates drying but risks degrading the end product.

With Turkey accounting for the lion’s share of global fig exports, these conditions are drawing intense scrutiny from traders, processors, and retailers alike. Importers are watching closely for September’s final harvest figures, which are expected to confirm a year-over-year drop in total output. Despite the tightly squeezed supply, dried fig prices remain stable—for now—thanks partly to muted export activity and relatively flat demand in key markets. However, the upward pressure is evident, and prospective buyers should anticipate potential price volatility as the true extent of crop losses becomes measurable. All eyes are now on the upcoming weather forecasts and official September figures that will shape fig trading strategies for the coming months.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Figs dried	No. 1, natural	TR	Malatya	9.20	0.00	Stable, cautious
Figs dried	No. 3, natural	TR	Malatya	8.95	0.00	Stable
Figs dried	No. 7, lerida	TR	Malatya	8.30	0.00	Stable
Figs dried	No. 6, lerida	TR	Malatya	9.00	0.00	Stable
Figs dried	Grade AAA	IR	Tehran	5.83	+0.50	Firm
Figs dried	Grade B	IR	Tehran	2.98	+0.25	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Turkey: New season figs are entering the domestic market; harvest appears lower than last year due to severe drought and increased fruit shedding during drying. Quality remains a concern as prolonged heat stresses the crop.
• Iran: Exports stable, with some price increases for higher grades; no major weather disruptions reported. Iranian figs remain competitively priced, particularly at the lower end of the quality spectrum.
• Demand: International demand is steady, with traders awaiting clearer harvest figures before making large-volume commitments. Early buyers are securing contracts to hedge against potential future shortages.
• Export Markets: European and Middle Eastern buyers are cautious; volumes expected to pick up post-harvest data in September.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Weather Impact: Persistent high temperatures and a lack of rain in the Turkish Aegean region are reducing overall volume and affecting fig quality. Crop shedding is abnormally high.
• Harvest Progress: Too early for full-year export figures; initial arrivals point to a lower crop.
• Stocks & Inventories: Global stocks remain moderate. The Turkish inventory from last season is nearly depleted, putting pressure on the new crop.
• Speculative Positioning: Market participants are cautious, awaiting September’s official figures and pricing guidance.
• Comparative Context: Last year’s figures showed a stronger harvest with higher export volumes. The current season stands in contrast due to extreme weather.

🌦️ Weather & Outlook

• Aegean Region (Turkey): Expect continued hot, dry conditions for the next week. While this aids drying, the risk to fruit quality and further shedding persists. No rain on the immediate horizon.
• Tehran Region (Iran): Mostly stable, warm temperatures; no significant weather threats reported.
• Forecast Effect: Without significant rainfall or cooling, Turkish fig yields and quality will likely remain under pressure—potentially supporting higher prices as the season progresses.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. Est (t)	2023/24 Prod. (t)	YoY Change
Turkey	Low (pending Sep data)	~310,000	Expected -10% to -15%
Iran	Stable	~70,000	Flat
Other Exporters	Minor	Minor	Flat

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Short-term: Consider purchasing on a need-only basis; limited upside for price falls given tight supply.
• 📌 Medium-term: Prepare for potential price increases in September when the final Turkish harvest data is released.
• 📌 Suppliers: Focus on quality sorting and securing logistics early; price premiums likely for top-grade dried figs.
• 📌 Buyers: Early contracting may offer hedging benefits as supply uncertainty persists.
• 📌 Monitor: Weather patterns in the Aegean and official yield data; respond quickly to supply shocks.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Exchange	Fig Type	FOB Spot Price (EUR/kg)	Direction
2025-08-06	Malatya	No.1, natural	9.20	=
2025-08-07	Malatya	No. 1, natural	9.20	=
2025-08-08	Malatya	No. 1, natural	9.22	↑
2025-08-06	Tehran	Grade AAA	5.83	=
2025-08-08	Tehran	Grade AAA	5.85	↑