The 2025 fig season opens with a tense mood on global markets as Turkish growers—predominantly in the drought-stricken Aegean region—face a sharply reduced harvest. Early domestic arrivals are met with both relief and anxiety: while the crop is coming in on schedule, relentless heat and scarce rainfall are reducing fig volumes and threatening quality. Notably, the excessive drought has led to premature fruit shedding, a process that accelerates drying but risks degrading the end product.
With Turkey accounting for the lion’s share of global fig exports, these conditions are drawing intense scrutiny from traders, processors, and retailers alike. Importers are watching closely for September’s final harvest figures, which are expected to confirm a year-over-year drop in total output. Despite the tightly squeezed supply, dried fig prices remain stable—for now—thanks partly to muted export activity and relatively flat demand in key markets. However, the upward pressure is evident, and prospective buyers should anticipate potential price volatility as the true extent of crop losses becomes measurable. All eyes are now on the upcoming weather forecasts and official September figures that will shape fig trading strategies for the coming months.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Figs dried
no: 7, lerida
FOB 8.30 €/kg
(from TR)
Figs dried
no: 6, natural
FOB 8.50 €/kg
(from TR)
Figs dried
no: 5, natural
FOB 8.70 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figs dried | No. 1, natural | TR | Malatya | 9.20 | 0.00 | Stable, cautious |
| Figs dried | No. 3, natural | TR | Malatya | 8.95 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Figs dried | No. 7, lerida | TR | Malatya | 8.30 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Figs dried | No. 6, lerida | TR | Malatya | 9.00 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Figs dried | Grade AAA | IR | Tehran | 5.83 | +0.50 | Firm |
| Figs dried | Grade B | IR | Tehran | 2.98 | +0.25 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Turkey: New season figs are entering the domestic market; harvest appears lower than last year due to severe drought and increased fruit shedding during drying. Quality remains a concern as prolonged heat stresses the crop.
- Iran: Exports stable, with some price increases for higher grades; no major weather disruptions reported. Iranian figs remain competitively priced, particularly at the lower end of the quality spectrum.
- Demand: International demand is steady, with traders awaiting clearer harvest figures before making large-volume commitments. Early buyers are securing contracts to hedge against potential future shortages.
- Export Markets: European and Middle Eastern buyers are cautious; volumes expected to pick up post-harvest data in September.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather Impact: Persistent high temperatures and a lack of rain in the Turkish Aegean region are reducing overall volume and affecting fig quality. Crop shedding is abnormally high.
- Harvest Progress: Too early for full-year export figures; initial arrivals point to a lower crop.
- Stocks & Inventories: Global stocks remain moderate. The Turkish inventory from last season is nearly depleted, putting pressure on the new crop.
- Speculative Positioning: Market participants are cautious, awaiting September’s official figures and pricing guidance.
- Comparative Context: Last year’s figures showed a stronger harvest with higher export volumes. The current season stands in contrast due to extreme weather.
🌦️ Weather & Outlook
- Aegean Region (Turkey): Expect continued hot, dry conditions for the next week. While this aids drying, the risk to fruit quality and further shedding persists. No rain on the immediate horizon.
- Tehran Region (Iran): Mostly stable, warm temperatures; no significant weather threats reported.
- Forecast Effect: Without significant rainfall or cooling, Turkish fig yields and quality will likely remain under pressure—potentially supporting higher prices as the season progresses.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. Est (t) | 2023/24 Prod. (t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | Low (pending Sep data) | ~310,000 | Expected -10% to -15% |
| Iran | Stable | ~70,000 | Flat |
| Other Exporters | Minor | Minor | Flat |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Short-term: Consider purchasing on a need-only basis; limited upside for price falls given tight supply.
- 📌 Medium-term: Prepare for potential price increases in September when the final Turkish harvest data is released.
- 📌 Suppliers: Focus on quality sorting and securing logistics early; price premiums likely for top-grade dried figs.
- 📌 Buyers: Early contracting may offer hedging benefits as supply uncertainty persists.
- 📌 Monitor: Weather patterns in the Aegean and official yield data; respond quickly to supply shocks.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange | Fig Type | FOB Spot Price (EUR/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | Malatya | No.1, natural | 9.20 | = |
| 2025-08-07 | Malatya | No. 1, natural | 9.20 | = |
| 2025-08-08 | Malatya | No. 1, natural | 9.22 | ↑ |
| 2025-08-06 | Tehran | Grade AAA | 5.83 | = |
| 2025-08-08 | Tehran | Grade AAA | 5.85 | ↑ |
