Aflatoxin Rules Disrupt Indian Peanut Exports: Market Faces Price Pressure & Global Competition

The peanut market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as India, a major global producer and exporter, faces stricter export regulations aimed at curbing aflatoxin contamination. Triggered by rising complaints from key buying countries like Indonesia and EU member states, these new norms threaten to disrupt India’s vibrant export channels right at the onset of the fresh harvest season. Exporters are voicing concerns about shipment delays, elevated compliance costs, and a potential slump in farmgate prices—especially since domestic prices are already trending well below the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP). Meanwhile, competitors such as China, Vietnam, and African suppliers are aggressively angling for additional market share, sensing an opportunity amid India’s logistical and regulatory snags.

Looking ahead, much will depend on how quickly India streamlines its testing and export clearance processes, as global buyers remain sensitive to quality issues. With weather conditions supporting a larger crop in main growing areas like Gujarat, pressure on local prices may intensify, putting both farmers’ incomes and India’s export standing at risk. Smart risk management, governmental intervention, and close monitoring of global developments are set to become indispensable for all market participants in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices: Latest Peanut Market Listings

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Roasted Split 60/70/80	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.11	0.00	Weak/Bearish
Birdfeed	India	New Delhi	CFR	1.01	0.00	Steady/Weak
Raw	Brazil	Brasília	FOB	1.26	0.00	Firm/Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India’s Position: ~746,000 tonnes exported last year; Indonesia is the largest market, taking 277,000 tonnes (USD 280 million value).
• Fresh harvests arriving in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan—likely to boost short-term supply.
• Export restrictions tightening due to aflatoxin concerns; customs and lab delays risk further bottlenecks.
• Competitors advancing: China, Vietnam, and African exporters ready to capture displaced demand from India.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Price Pressure: Indian farmgate peanut prices (USD 682/tonne) below MSP (USD 872/tonne) signals farmer vulnerability.
• Aflatoxin Regulation: APEDA enforces new standards, increasing compliance burdens; delays noted by exporters.
• Export Outlook: If testing bottlenecks persist, India’s share in sensitive destinations (Indonesia, EU) could erode.
• Calls for Support: Industry demands expanded lab capacity, better fumigation, and expedited clearances.
• Global Inventory: Brazil maintains firm pricing (1.26 €/kg), but global buyers eye volume-and-price balance amid Indian upheaval.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Prospects

• India: Monsoon conditions in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan have been favorable for crop development; yield prospects look robust, suggesting higher near-term supply.
• Brazil: Normal weather patterns reported—supportive for peanut quality and supply stability.
• Short-Term Impact: Weather upside could be offset by demand bottlenecks from regulatory delays and export restrictions.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Top three exporter, but regulatory disruption may reduce effective supply to international markets in Q4 2025.
• Brazil & Argentina: Solid crop development, stable supply, relatively immune to current aflatoxin-driven market noise.
• Africa & SE Asia: Rapid expansion in groundnut acreage and exports—reflecting shifting global demand away from high-risk origins.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor export policy evolution in India—regulatory relief could trigger a short-lived price rally.
• Buyers: Diversify sourcing to include Brazil and Africa until Indian compliance issues stabilize.
• Sellers in India: Accelerate quality control investments for compliance; hedge sales, as downward price pressure on local markets may intensify with the new crop harvest.
• Watch global freight and logistics for further cost changes, especially if shipment delays increase.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB/CFR)

Type	Origin	Spot Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Sentiment
Roasted Split 60/70/80	India	1.11	1.08 – 1.11	Bearish
Birdfeed	India	1.01	1.00 – 1.01	Slightly Bearish
Raw	Brazil	1.26	1.25 – 1.27	Neutral