Almond Market Finds a Floor as Indian Buying Revives and Import Selling Eases

India’s almond market has turned firmer as reduced importer selling met a revival in consumer demand at Delhi’s key wholesale hub. Prices for both whole nuts and kernels have edged higher, and the current constellation of tighter offers and active buying suggests a short‑term floor has been established. Almonds remain well supplied globally, but near‑term dynamics in India are being driven more by local inventory management and demand patterns than by structural shortages. California origin still dominates Indian imports, while premium Gurbandi from Afghanistan and Pakistan continues to command a robust margin. With European buyers closely tracking Indian kernel values as a demand signal, a consolidating, slightly firmer market over the next two to three weeks is the base case rather than any sharp rally.

Prices

At Delhi wholesale markets, California almonds gained around $5.29–$10.58 per 40 kg session-on-session, settling near $264.63–$269.93 per 40 kg. Premium Gurbandi lots traded higher, in a $291.10–$301.69 per 40 kg band, reflecting their stronger flavour and use in sweets and desserts. California almond kernels moved up by about $0.21 per kg to trade around $9.32–$10.16 per kg, levels closely watched by confectionery and ingredient buyers.

Converted to approximate euro terms (using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), Delhi kernel levels imply roughly EUR 8.58–9.35/kg. This is broadly in line with recent wholesale references in Europe, where some French wholesale quotations for bulk almonds are around EUR 2.61/kg for lower-grade product but higher for quality kernels. Current EU kernel offers tracked in Washington D.C. and Madrid show mostly stable values in the EUR 5.50–11.50/kg range depending on origin, variety and organic status.

Supply & Demand

The immediate firming in India stems from a tactical pullback in importer selling. After several sessions of aggressive liquidation, importers reduced offer volumes, tightening visible supply at the Delhi hub. This coincided with a pick-up in consumer and trade buying, especially ahead of seasonal demand for confectionery and sweet-making, turning market sentiment more constructive.

Structurally, India remains heavily dependent on US supply, particularly from California’s San Joaquin Valley. Global almond supply this season is broadly stable, with the latest US crop estimates pointing to a moderate, manageable harvest rather than a surge or collapse. Bearing acreage in California has stopped expanding and is even edging lower, which helps contain long-term oversupply risks but does not yet translate into acute tightness. For now, the global backdrop remains balanced, leaving local Indian inventory dynamics as the key short-term driver.

Fundamentals & Weather

California’s water situation is a medium-term watch point. Recent updates from the State Water Project show improved allocation heading into summer 2026 thanks to decent late-season rainfall, even after early heat and rapid snowmelt. This has eased immediate irrigation stress but does not remove the structural vulnerability of almond orchards to future water restrictions or price hikes, especially in the San Joaquin Valley.

Field reports from Central California permanent crops highlight that almond orchards are now in the shell-hardening phase, with growers focused on managing upcoming heat and water stress to protect kernel size and quality. Evapotranspiration data from the Sacramento Valley also confirm steadily rising water use into late June, underlining the importance of timely irrigation to avoid yield penalties. For European and Indian buyers, this means that while 2026 supply looks adequate, any adverse weather or water policy shocks later in the season could shift the balance.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market participants in India expect almond prices to hold or consolidate modestly over the next two to three weeks. Any sizeable new import arrivals into Delhi would cap upside, but the recent cutback in importer selling suggests that current levels are a working floor in the short term. With no clear shock on the supply side and demand improving, sideways-to-firm price action is the base scenario.

• Roasters and confectioners (India/Europe): Consider covering near-term kernel needs on dips close to current Delhi-equivalent levels, as the risk of a sharp downside break appears limited while importer offers remain restrained.
• Importers into India: Maintain disciplined selling; avoid heavy forward liquidation unless large new shipments are imminent, as current market tone allows for slightly better realizations.
• European buyers of California origin: Use today’s relatively stable US and Spanish kernel offers to extend coverage modestly into Q3, but keep some flexibility given still-balanced global fundamentals and possible currency moves.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• Delhi wholesale, California whole almonds: Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms as tighter offers persist and consumer buying remains supportive.
• US export offers, California kernels (FAS/FOB): Largely steady around current EUR 6.5–6.6/kg indications; no major move expected absent new crop or currency news.
• EU (Spain/France) wholesale kernels: Mildly firm bias, tracking Indian and US benchmarks, but strong nearby supply should limit any sharp price spike.