The global almond market, after grappling with a period of extended weakness driven by tepid retail and wholesale demand, is now showing tangible signs of stabilization. Following a marked $8.40/kg drop in wholesale prices—particularly noticeable in the Indian market after a surge in U.S. shipments—recent weeks have brought newfound support as inventory overhangs have finally started to clear. Market insiders note that the tide is turning: the aggressive pace of imports from the U.S. has slowed, residual stocks are running down, and logistical bottlenecks are delaying fresh arrivals, all contributing to a more balanced market structure.
Almond prices in major Indian cities have settled between $7.50 and $8.00 per kg, with improving sentiment as festival demand approaches. At the same time, recently revised US production estimates for the 2024–25 season suggest a marginally tighter supply picture, reinforcing expectations of price firmness for the new crop year. California’s yield—watched closely amid climate variability—may fall below last season’s output, intensifying trade caution and bolstering global price floors. As India, the world’s largest almond importer, tracks every shift in U.S. estimates, traders anticipate that the worst of the price slump has passed, paving the way for a stable-to-bullish trajectory through the year’s second half.
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📈 Almond Prices: Latest Exchange and Export Market Overview
| Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | 6.73 | -0.05 | Stable/Firm |
| Carmel, SSR 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | 6.68 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | 9.33 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Marcona, 12/14 | ES | Madrid | 6.66 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Marcona, 14/16 | ES | Madrid | 8.25 | -0.06 | Stable |
| Marcona, S/16 | ES | Madrid | 8.91 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Valencia, 10/12 | ES | Madrid | 5.64 | -0.05 | Weak |
| Guara, 12/14 MMS | ES | Madrid | 5.95 | -0.06 | Stable |
| Sangi, Inshell | IR | Tehran | 1.88 | +0.06 | Strengthening |
| Mamra, Grade A | IR | Tehran | 11.18 | +0.23 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Recent Price Decline: Attributed to heavy US almond shipments in the last 20–25 days leading to oversupply, especially in India.
- Current Stabilization: Market support emerging as inventory clears and logistical delays slow new arrivals.
- Demand Recovery: Retailers/wholesalers are showing renewed interest; bulk buying for Indian festivals is expected to drive further gains.
- US Production Outlook: USDA June report at 1.14 million tons, but revised estimates indicate a likely shortfall, supporting prices due to anticipated tighter supply.
- Weather Risk: California crop under close watch—the next 30–45 days critical, with any climatic issues likely to tighten supply further.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders turning cautiously optimistic as worst of the downturn appears past.
📊 Almond Market Fundamentals
- Global Stocks: US stocks are expected to draw down as export pace moderates and Indian domestic demand absorbs excess.
- India Import Dynamics: Active import pace in early July has eased, and existing stocks are thinning.
- Logistics: Container shortages and port congestion have delayed fresh US arrivals, indirectly supporting prices across Asia and the Middle East.
- Price Gap: US origin almonds (Carmel SSR 18/20 at 6.73 EUR/kg) remain slightly cheaper than Spanish counterparts (Marcona 12/14 at 6.66 EUR/kg), but quality premiums persist.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- California (US): Forecasts for the next month indicate above-average daytime highs and intermittent heat spikes. Almond trees are currently finishing kernel fill; any late-season heat stress or unexpected rainfall could hamper yields.
- Spain: Weather in Murcia and Valencia is mostly dry but with some risk of localized heatwaves in August, which could influence late-harvest Marcona and Valencia almonds.
- Iran: Tehran area remains warm and dry, ideal but adding to pressure on water reserves.
🌏 Production & Stock Comparison (Major Exporters/Importers)
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est, Mt) | 2023/24 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Beginning Stocks (Mt) | Key Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (California) | ~1.13M | 1.16M | ~0.25M | Largest Producer/Exporter |
| Spain | ~99,000 | ~102,000 | ~25,000 | #2 Producer, Premium Varieties |
| Iran | ~130,000 | ~125,000 | ~18,000 | Significant for Regional Exports |
| India | ~4,000 | ~3,800 | N/A | Largest Importer |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔹 Importers: Consider forward contracts for Q4 delivery as current price floor is likely to hold unless US crop prospects improve dramatically.
- 🔹 Exporters: Use tightening stocks and logistical lags as leverage in price negotiations, especially for premium grades and organic varieties.
- 🔹 Industry Buyers/Retailers: Start preparations for festival and holiday stock-ups; prices may rise modestly by late August-September.
- 🔹 Speculators: Modest bullish bias justified, but monitor California crop weather closely for surprise events that could swing sentiment.
- 🔹 Watch for: California yield updates, Indian festival demand surge, and any escalation in freight/logistic challenges.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Location | Current (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel, SSR 18/20 | Washington D.C. (US) | 6.73 | 6.75 – 6.80 (stable/slightly up) |
| Natural, Nonpareil SSR | Washington D.C. (US) | 9.33 | 9.35 – 9.40 (stable) |
| Marcona, 12/14 | Madrid (ES) | 6.66 | 6.65 – 6.70 (stable) |
| Mamra, Grade A | Tehran (IR) | 11.18 | 11.20 – 11.30 (firming) |