Almond Market Tightens as 2026 Harvest Points to Smaller Crop

Almond prices are firming as early 2026 California harvest data suggest a smaller crop with lighter kernels, while demand ahead of key festivals keeps nearby cover in focus. The global almond market is shifting from comfortable balance toward a tighter outlook. July shipments were slightly above last year, but crop‑year‑to‑date movement remains marginally lower and final 2025 crop receipts show a small decline. Early 2026 harvest observations indicate smaller kernels and potentially around 10% less volume versus last year, prompting growers and packers to ration offers for larger sizes. At the same time, local inventories at destination are thin and demand ahead of Diwali, Ramadan and Lunar New Year is set to intensify shipments through September–October. Price ideas for Nonpareil and Independence kernels and in‑shell have already moved higher, and nearby EUR prices in the US and Europe reflect a market that is cautiously transitioning into a deficit narrative.

Prices

US kernel prices for standard Californian almonds are steady to firm. Recent indications show Carmel SSR 20/22 around EUR 6.55/kg FAS Washington D.C., and Carmel SSR 18/20 near EUR 6.60/kg, with organic Nonpareil 27/30 around EUR 9.20/kg FOB. Spanish material is broadly stable, with Guara and Valencia types mostly between EUR 5.45–7.35/kg FOB Madrid, and premium Marcona up to roughly EUR 8.75/kg. These flat nominal quotes mask underlying strength at origin: Nonpareil and Independence kernel prices have risen by about EUR 0.40–0.55/kg (USD 0.20–0.30/lb) over the past two months, with similar gains in in‑shell Nonpareil. The strongest appreciation is seen for larger sizes, where sellers remain reluctant to offer forward until actual sizing is confirmed.

Supply & Demand

July shipments reached 203.5 million lbs, up 3.3% year‑on‑year, with domestic movement at 53.2 million lbs (+6.2%) and exports at 150.3 million lbs (+2.3%). Crop‑year‑to‑date shipments stand at 2.629 billion lbs, just 0.64% below last season, underscoring resilient demand despite earlier concerns over macro headwinds. Final 2025 crop receipts are confirmed at 2.693 billion lbs, about 0.7% smaller than the prior year, and the industry is already 92.1% sold against crop plus carry‑in, leaving limited remaining cover at origin.

Regional demand patterns are diverging. India’s crop‑year imports are down 11%, reflecting earlier heavy inventories and price sensitivity, while Spain is up 19% and Turkey a strong 45%. Pakistan shows exceptional growth from a low base, with shipments more than quadrupling. Across many destinations, local stocks are now described as limited, which—combined with firm festival demand for Diwali, Ramadan and Lunar New Year—points to a need for active shipment programs in September and October to avoid supply gaps in key consuming markets.

Fundamentals & Harvest

Fundamentals are pivoting around the 2026 California harvest. Field reports from multiple areas indicate smaller kernels, less weight and an early expectation of roughly a 10% crop reduction versus last year. The industry is only midway through the Nonpareil harvest, with Independence just starting, so these figures are preliminary. However, the consistent theme of lighter nuts across orchards is enough to change market psychology from surplus to potential tightening, particularly for larger premium counts that are typically in strongest demand.

Packers and growers are consequently cautious about forward selling large sizes before they see final sizing and yields. This seller restraint, together with high sold positions and limited destination inventories, has been the key driver behind recent price appreciation in Nonpareil and Independence kernels and in‑shell. If subsequent harvest data confirm the projected 10% shortfall, the market may need to further ration demand via higher prices, especially into size‑sensitive segments such as snack, confectionery and premium retail lines.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

The immediate focus is operational rather than weather risk, as the harvest is already underway. Current conditions in California’s Central Valley are seasonally hot and largely favorable for drying and pickup, supporting the rapid advance of Nonpareil and Independence varieties. The key uncertainty now lies less with weather disruption and more with final yield and kernel weight data as more orchards are shaken over the next four weeks. Weather shocks would mainly matter if unexpected late storms or extreme heat episodes affected late varieties, but for now no major disruption is reported.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–6 Weeks)

• Buyers (roasters, packers, retailers): Consider covering at least through Q4 2026, especially for Nonpareil and Independence large sizes, before full confirmation of the 10% smaller crop tightens offers further. Be flexible on sizing and origin to secure volume.
• Importers & distributors: With local inventories thin and the industry already 92% sold, prioritize nearby shipments for Diwali, Ramadan and Lunar New Year programs. Use current flat EUR prices in Europe to build minimum security stocks.
• Growers & handlers: Maintain a measured sales pace on remaining unsold volumes, particularly premium sizes, until yield and sizing data are clearer. However, consider locking in recent price gains on standard grades to manage risk.

Over the coming 3 days, almond prices on key US and European exchanges are expected to remain firm to slightly higher in EUR terms, with the strongest upward bias for Nonpareil and Independence kernels and in‑shell, while mid‑range Spanish and Californian standards hold steady but with a clear upside skew.