Almond Markets 2025: Record Imports, Steady Demand & a Changing Global Landscape

As the 2025 almond crop arrives, the global almond market stands at a dynamic crossroads. India, the world’s biggest almond importer, is on pace for record-level imports, with over 110,000 metric tons expected to reach its shores—driven by robust demand from its burgeoning middle class and health-centric industries. Most supplies will originate from the United States and Australia, reinforcing their dominance in the international almond trade as California alone delivers over 80% of the world’s crop. Meanwhile, expanded acreage in both the US and Australia signals ongoing supply growth and long-term trade stability.

Currently, almond kernel prices in India range from $8.10 to $9.50 per kg based on quality, with premium imports at the high end, especially in southern and western regions where processors and modern retailers are particularly active. Increased arrivals and hefty import volumes, however, are keeping prices under pressure despite the rising consumption—a trend likely to persist through the arrival window. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global crop output at 1.45 million metric tons for 2025, and India’s strategy must now evolve from volume-driven import dependency toward value-adding processing and branded exports. As the season unfolds, eyes remain fixed on the Indian market’s capacity for innovation, domestic processing advancements, and the evolving impact of global weather on future crops.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Type	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
US	Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr, 18/20	FAS	6.78	6.78	Stable
US	Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr 20/22	FAS	6.72	6.72	Stable
US	Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr	FOB	9.38	9.38	Firm (Organic/Premium)
ES	Almond kernels, marcona, 12/14	FOB	6.71	6.71	Stable
ES	Almond kernels, marcona, 14/16	FOB	8.30	8.30	Stable
IR	Almond kernels, Mamra, grade a	FOB	11.18	10.95	Firm (Specialty)

• Spot prices remain broadly steady as arrivals increase, aided by expected import surges.
• Organic and premium specialties holding at top price range, reflecting niche demand.
• Market sentiment: Slightly pressured but resilient, with some bullishness for value-added products.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Indian almond imports for 2025 projected at a record 110,000 MT, surpassing last year’s total.
• USDA global forecast: 1.45 million MT; California accounts for 80%+ of output.
• Strong Indian demand driven by retail, confectionery, and health-food industries.
• Ongoing orchard expansions in California and Australia support ample global supply.
• Importers monitor port logistics and currency stability for margin impacts.

📊 Key Fundamentals

Region	2024/25 Production (MT)	2024/25 Stocks (MT)	Share of Global Supply
California (US)	~1,160,000	470,000	80%+
Australia	170,000	32,000	~12%
Spain	70,000	18,000	~5%
Iran	22,000	3,500	1–2%
India (Local)	<1,000	NA	<0.1%

• US and Australian supplies underpin global market stability.
• India’s domestic production remains negligible; imports fill the gap.
• Inventories comfortable; carry-in stocks help moderate price spikes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Quality

• California: Weather largely favorable with minor irrigation stress in the Central Valley; continued monitoring for late-summer hot spells that could impact kernel size.
• Australia: Adequate rainfall and mild winter in key almond regions support yield potential for upcoming season.
• Spain/Iran: Weather risks include scattered drought pockets, but not expected to alter global price direction.

• Crop quality generally expected to be good; larger imports into India signal exporter confidence in 2025 supply.

🔍 Strategic & Market Drivers

• USDA forecasts shape global supply sentiment; no surprises from latest reports.
• Speculative positioning in US/EU contracts remains slightly net-long on firm demand for healthy snacks.
• Indian policy debates focus on enhancing domestic value-addition, branding, and logistics infrastructure.
• Global macro effects: Currency volatility and freight costs closely watched.

🔮 Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect prices in India to soften slightly as new arrivals peak; upside limited by robust supply covers.
• Strong long-term consumption outlook in health and confectionery segments.
• Value-add processors should leverage current price stability for building stocks.
• Importers advised to lock in favorable deals in coming weeks amid high global inventories.
• Monitor weather in California for any late-season surprises; downside risk if no yield threats.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Spot Price Range (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
US (Washington DC, FAS)	6.72 – 6.78	Stable/Soft
India (Major Markets, Import)	8.10 – 9.50 (USD)	Soft/Buyer friendly
EU (Spain, FOB)	5.65 – 8.95	Stable/Calcified

• Short-term, anticipate further moderate softening in Indian prices, followed by stability as stocks are absorbed.
• Focus on opportunities in branded/processed almond products for higher-margin returns.