Almond Prices Hold Firm as California Tightens and Spanish Marcona Commands Premiums

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are broadly steady, with a firm undertone driven by tightening Californian supply and resilient European demand. Spanish Marcona and premium Valencia grades continue to trade at a clear premium to US Carmel and Nonpareil, while organic lots maintain a substantial surcharge. Almond trading is currently dominated by nearby physical demand and cautious forward coverage ahead of the 2026 California harvest. Recent industry commentary points to firmer California pricing as export demand improves and premium Nonpareil stocks tighten, while shipment data still show cumulative exports slightly behind last season, keeping outright rallies in check. In Europe, Spanish Marcona prices remain historically high versus standard Californian kernels, supported by strong Mediterranean snack and confectionery demand. With largely favourable short‑term weather in both California and Spain, the market focus stays on logistics, export flows and buyer coverage rather than immediate crop risk.

Prices

All prices converted approximately at 1 USD = 0.93 EUR for comparability.

Spanish origin thus carries a premium over US standard Carmel of roughly 8–30% depending on variety and calibre, with organic Spanish Nonpareil trading about 23% above US organic Nonpareil equivalents.

Supply & Demand

The latest California industry commentary indicates that almond prices have gained momentum in June as export demand improves and premium stocks tighten, with the market described as moving from surplus to a more balanced situation ahead of the 2026 harvest. The most recent US position report also shows May 2026 shipments modestly above the prior year, but cumulative exports still slightly trailing last season, which curbs aggressive price spikes.

On the demand side, recent shipping data highlight a re‑orientation of Californian exports, with stronger flows toward Turkey and parts of Western Europe while shipments to India have softened. This favours European buyers, who are currently benefiting from ample US supply offers alongside structurally tighter and higher‑priced Spanish Marcona. In Spain, local industry reports continue to underline firm demand for Marcona and Valencia in confectionery and snack applications, keeping domestic prices supported around the upper range of recent European assessments.

Fundamentals & Weather

The latest official subjective forecast pegs 2026 California almond production at around 2.70 billion pounds (shelled), only slightly below last year, reinforcing a narrative of adequate but not burdensome supply. Combined with the recent firming in spot and nearby prices reported by Californian handlers, the fundamental picture is one of balanced stocks rather than outright scarcity, encouraging buyers to cover third‑quarter needs but limiting deep discounts.

Weather – US (California): Short‑term forecasts for the Central Valley over June 27–30 indicate seasonally hot, predominantly dry conditions with maximum temperatures mostly in the low to mid‑30s °C, and no widespread rain events. This is broadly favourable for kernel fill and disease control, with no immediate frost or storm risks.
Weather – Spain: In key Spanish almond regions (Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Valencia), 3‑day outlooks point to warm, mostly dry weather with localised heat in inland valleys and only isolated light showers at altitude. Soil moisture constraints remain an underlying concern in some dryland orchards but there are no acute weather shocks expected in the next few days.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Spain (ES) buyers: With Madrid FOB Marcona and Valencia grades stable to slightly firmer, and no near‑term weather threat, spot buyers should consider covering July–August needs now, especially for Marcona S/16 and large‑calibre Valencia where premiums are pronounced and liquidity is thinner.
• EU importers using US origin: US Carmel and Nonpareil prices in euro terms remain competitive versus Spanish product, and California fundamentals are balanced but not tight. Gradual scale‑in buying on minor dips is favoured over waiting for a significant correction that current shipment and crop data do not justify.
• Industrial users (roasters, confectioners): Maintain at least 2–3 months of physical coverage into early Q3, particularly for organic and large‑screen product, where substitution is limited and Spanish premiums are structurally high.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional)

• Spain (Madrid FOB): Marcona and Valencia kernels expected steady to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, supported by strong local demand and limited nearby selling pressure.
• US (Washington D.C. FAS/FOB for export): Carmel and Nonpareil kernels likely to trade sideways to mildly firm, reflecting recent strengthening of California offers in euro terms and solid export enquiry from Turkey and Western Europe.