As the global almond market pivots in the wake of unexpected USDA crop estimates and shifting trade dynamics, prices have weathered fast-paced swings while underlying demand shows remarkable resilience. In July, Australian almond demand remained notably firm, shrugging off the initial shock when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a much larger-than-anticipated 2025 California almond crop forecast (3 billion pounds). This trigger caused a brief but sharp drop in global almond prices, prompting sellers to pause and buyers to assess new risk levels. However, as the early California harvest arrived below projections, prices staged a recovery—evidence of the market’s sensitive balance between supply news and physical realities.
Australian exporters have been buoyed by a weaker AUD versus USD, making their nuts more competitive in global markets just as ongoing U.S. trade sanctions fuel sourcing diversification in China and India. This advantage broadened Australia’s reach into markets like Qatar, Denmark, Belgium, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with Asian and Middle Eastern consumers reinforcing steady global demand. Market watchers are keeping a close eye on how California’s crop shapes up through autumn and the resilience of non-U.S. suppliers. While headline volatility remains elevated, pricing stability and currency advantages underpin a constructive view for current Australian and European sellers.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.77 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.73 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.37 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Recent Market Close and Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (€/kg) | 1-Week Change (€/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels | carmel, ssr, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.77 | -0.05 | Mildly Bearish (recovering) |
| Almonds kernels | carmel, ssr 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.73 | -0.05 | Mildly Bearish (recovering) |
| Almonds kernels | natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (organic) | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.37 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Almond kernels | marcona, 12/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 6.70 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Almond kernels | marcona, 14/16 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 8.30 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Almond kernels | valencia, 10/12 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 5.70 | -0.05 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- California Almonds: USDA’s surprise 3-billion-pound 2025 crop estimate briefly drove sellers from the market, sparking a sharp price drop.
- Australian Almonds: Demand stayed robust. A weaker AUD boosted export returns, and trade flows have diversified beyond China and India.
- Global Trade: Notable growth in Australian almond imports by Qatar, Denmark, Belgium, New Zealand, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
- US Sanctions: U.S. trade action redirected Asian demand toward Australia and Europe.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory: Following the USDA’s bullish supply estimate, harvest progress in California has lagged expectations, lending near-term price support.
- Export Trends: Australia’s year-on-year growth in key emerging markets is sustaining their export volumes; Asian/Middle Eastern demand anchors stability even in volatile periods.
- Currency: FX moves (weak AUD, steady EUR) have buttressed non-U.S. supplier price competitiveness.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- California: Early autumn continues predominantly dry and warmer than average, which could favor harvest operations but also stress late-maturing varieties if heat persists. Risk of lower yields if typical cooling rains delay.
- Australia: Moderate winter rainfall; mild spring temperatures expected—supportive for flowering and fruit set ahead of next harvest.
- Spain: Stable weather, but irrigation water supplies require monitoring over summer.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Est. 2025 Production (t) | Stock Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (California) | ~1,360,000 | Rising (if USDA forecast realized) | Main global supplier; harvest uncertainty remains. |
| Australia | ~140,000 | Firm | Exports up; aided by currency & trade flows. |
| Spain | ~95,000 | Stable | Steady output; water challenges persist. |
📋 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Take advantage of current price stability and favorable exchange rates for non-U.S. origins; consider forward contracts as California harvest clarity emerges.
- Producers: Monitor weather and USDA harvest updates closely; consider staged selling in anticipation of further price volatility.
- Traders: Watch currency markets (AUD/EUR/USD) and emerging Asian/Middle Eastern demand; short-term opportunities seen in price rebounds post-USDA correction.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (Reference US) | Carmel SSR 18/20 | 6.77 | 6.75 – 6.80 |
| Madrid (Spain) | Marcona 12/14 | 6.70 | 6.70 – 6.72 |
| HQ (Australia, in EUR) | Nonpareil SSR | Est. 6.80 | 6.78 – 6.85 |
