Almonds Market Frozen by Middle East Shipping Disruptions: Prices in Limbo

Almond shipments to the United Arab Emirates are currently facing one of the most significant operational disruptions in recent memory. Intensifying shipping issues across the Middle East have paralyzed standard trade flows, introducing unprecedented uncertainty into the almonds market. Market participants—from sellers to traders—report a cascade of booking cancellations, shifting cargo commitments, and new surcharges imposed at extremely short notice. Critical carriers have either withdrawn or markedly changed their routing and schedules, resulting in irregular service and widely variable vessel availability. This operational volatility has fundamentally undermined commercial negotiations, turning every almond trade into a moving target, with offers now linked to vessel availability and subject to revision until cargo is loaded.

Facing this challenging environment, both buyers and traders in the region have adopted a wait-and-see approach, significantly reducing transaction activity. As a result, prices quoted in the UAE lack reliability and are no longer valid benchmarks for the wider market. The sector is now in a holding pattern, with all eyes on whether carriers can stabilize their service patterns or if geopolitical events will further exacerbate the disruptions. Even if transit routes suddenly normalize, the aftershocks—ranging from lingering risk premiums to a complete reassessment by logistical stakeholders—are expected to persist, keeping the market in a state of tension.

📈 Latest Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Organic	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date
Almonds kernels	US	Washington D.C.	carmel, ssr, 18/20	No	FAS	6.76	+0.04	2026-03-05
Almonds kernels	US	Washington D.C.	carmel, ssr 20/22	No	FAS	6.73	+0.05	2026-03-05
Almonds kernels	US	Washington D.C.	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr	Yes	FOB	9.38	+0.05	2026-03-05
Almond kernels	ES	Madrid	marcona, 12/14	No	FOB	6.65	+0.05	2026-03-05
Almond kernels	ES	Madrid	marcona, 14/16	No	FOB	8.25	+0.05	2026-03-05
Almond kernels	ES	Madrid	marcona, S/16	No	FOB	8.90	+0.05	2026-03-05

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Shipping Disruptions Dominate Market: The ongoing logistical challenges in the Middle East—specifically affecting almond shipments into the UAE—are the leading market driver. Sporadic vessel routing, abrupt booking cancellations, and extra surcharges have increased costs and created extreme uncertainty for both exporters and buyers.
• Market Inactivity Persists: Buyers and traders largely remain on the sidelines, awaiting greater supply chain clarity. Negotiations are frozen; most offers are heavily conditioned and not firm until the cargo is loaded.
• Forward Uncertainty: The fluidity of the situation means that any sign of stability could quickly shift negotiations and transaction activity, but residual risk premiums are expected to hold back a full return to normalcy.
• Current Prices Not Reliable in the UAE: Given the lack of executed business, regional offers are no longer benchmarks for the market, increasing price opacity.

📊 Fundamental Market Factors

• Logistics Overwhelm Fundamentals: Traditional supply/demand factors and global inventories have been overshadowed by freight unpredictability, making logistical considerations paramount.
• Speculative Activity Subdued: In contrast to usual conditions, speculative positioning is on pause as participants await signs of logistical normalization.
• Cost Structure Shift: New cost burdens include war risk premiums and ad hoc surcharges imposed by carriers.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Production

• Weather: While global crop development in major producers (USA, Spain) remains in line with seasonal expectations, weather impact is a secondary factor compared to the dominant logistical story. No major adverse events reported at this time.
• Production & Stocks: Major exporters (USA, Spain) maintain steady output, but export availability into the Middle East is limited by logistics, not by farm production or inventories.
• Comparative Stock: No substantial shifts in underlying almond stocks reported; disruptions are logistical, not fundamental shortage.

📌 Market Drivers Summary

• Middle East shipping disruptions (core issue)
• Cost increases: general rate, ad hoc, war risk surcharges
• Reduced, irregular vessel schedules
• Buyer/trader inactivity
• Offers conditioned on logistics, no firm deals until cargo is loaded

🏦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Wait for Stability: Market participants are advised to monitor carrier announcements and only contract with clear, guaranteed freight options.
• Review Contract Terms: All commitments should include explicit logistical clauses and options for renegotiation based on shipping changes.
• Price Discovery Challenging: Be aware that published prices may not reflect actual transaction levels in the Middle East—treat them as indicative only.
• Risk Management: Prepare for ongoing volatility, both in timing and freight-related costs, even after disruptions ease.
• Operational Flexibility: Exporters and buyers should retain maximum flexibility; focus on spot opportunities as predictable forward sales are unlikely.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Expected Price Change	Comment
UAE (Gulf ports)	Unchanged / N/A	Inactivity, no reliable market quotes
US (FAS/FOB export)	Stable	Underlying prices flat, limited new Middle East business
Europe (FOB Spain)	Stable	Prices unchanged, some indirect supply chain impacts possible

Outlook: Until logistics stabilize, the market will remain characterized by inactivity, opaque or provisional pricing, and an absence of robust trade flow into the UAE/Gulf region.