Almonds Market Insight: Safety Concerns and Trade Tensions Shape European and US Prices

Global almond trade is under scrutiny after recent alerts about high aflatoxin levels in US shipments entering the EU, sparking calls for stricter controls and highlighting market tensions between US and Spanish producers. The US, accounting for nearly 80% of world almond production, faces growing regulatory pressure in Europe, where Spanish growers argue that lax US phytosanitary protocols and tariff asymmetries put local farmers at a disadvantage. Recent EU rapid alert notifications revealed aflatoxin contamination in US almonds nearly three times the legal European limit, prompting industry groups like Fecoam in Spain to urge tighter import inspections to ensure consumer safety and fairer competition.

Meanwhile, almond prices remain firm across key origins, with market sentiment mixed in light of regulatory uncertainties and competitive pressures. Spanish almonds are gaining a quality-driven preference in some EU markets, partly offsetting the dominance of competitively priced US supplies. With weather conditions in Spain generally favorable for the 2025 harvest, European stocks are robust, while US output remains sensitive to ongoing drought risk in California. Traders and processors must closely watch evolving regulatory responses and the impact of trade imbalances as seasonal buying patterns unfold.

📈 Prices: Latest Almond Market Values

Origin	Type	Location	Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.72	0%	Stable/Neutral
US	Carmel, SSR, 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.68	0%	Stable/Neutral
US	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.32	0%	Stable
ES	Marcona, 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.65	0%	Firm
ES	Marcona, 14/16	Madrid	FOB	8.25	0%	Firm
ES	Marcona, S/16	Madrid	FOB	8.90	0%	Firm
ES	Valencia, 10/12	Madrid	FOB	5.65	0%	Stable
ES	Valencia, 12/14	Madrid	FOB	5.60	0%	Stable
ES	Valencia +14mm	Madrid	FOB	5.95	0%	Stable
ES	Guara bajo, 12	Madrid	FOB	5.68	0%	Stable
ES	Guara, 12/14 MMS	Madrid	FOB	5.95	0%	Stable
ES	Guara, S/14	Madrid	FOB	6.15	0%	Firm
ES	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	Madrid	FOB	11.60	0%	Firm/Quality premium

🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers and Competition

• Regulatory scrutiny: The detection of aflatoxins in multiple US almond shipments is raising major concerns in the EU. Calls for enhanced inspections and possible seizures could disrupt US flows and shift demand to domestic/EU-origin nuts.
• Trade dynamics: US dominates export markets (80% global supply). Spanish and EU producers complain that tariff-free US access and stricter EU health standards create unequal market conditions. Conversely, EU almonds face 15% duty into the US.
• Seasonal demand: The pre-winter confectionery and snack season supports steady offtake in Europe despite slower movement in Asia and the Middle East. Stock levels in Spain and Italy reported comfortable.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Quality

Country	2024/25 Production (est. 1,000 MT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est. 1,000 MT)	Notes
US	1,220	350	Ongoing drought limits production upside; phytosanitary vigilance lacking
Spain	90	15	Quality premium for dryland almonds; favorable weather in 2024
Australia	140	40	Competitively priced; limited EU market share
Other EU	57	7	Mostly traditional/organic production

• Quality focus: Spanish almonds marketed as safer and superior due to dryland farming and minimal fungal/mold risks.
• US almonds under scrutiny: Negative headlines may pressure US exporters into discounting or additional certification costs.
• European stocks adequate: Ample EU inventories support price resilience for quality product, especially for Marcona types and organics.

☀️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• California, US: Below-normal rainfall and persistent drought remain risks, but mild spring temperatures helped pollination. Some areas report reduced irrigation allocations for summer. Next three days: hot and dry, moderate wind, raising water stress worries.
• Spain: Murcia and Andalusia expect continued sunny and dry weather, optimal for late-season nut ripening and minimal fungal pressure. No major rain events forecast over the next 3 days.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For buyers: Closely monitor regulatory developments—possible port delays for US almonds could restrict offers and widen price spreads vs. European origins.
• For sellers: Spanish suppliers can leverage quality/safety advantage; consider preemptive testing and certification to further differentiate.
• For industrial users: Maintain diversified supply base. Preference may shift further toward Spanish/German/Australian product if US compliance issues escalate.
• Speculation: Negative sentiment toward US-origin could prompt short-term discounts, especially for non-organic bulk shipments. Premiums likely for traceable, certified, and organic supply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
US	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	6.72	→ Stable to Slightly Weak
ES	Marcona, 12/14	6.65	↑ Firm/Slightly Higher
ES	Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic)	11.60	↑ Stable/Firm Premium