Kashmir’s almond sector is experiencing a rare blend of optimism and caution this season. Farmers in the region have reaped a bumper almond harvest, marking a new production record. Yet, this achievement masks underlying worries about the sustainability of Kashmir’s almond industry: reductions in cultivated land and mounting conversion of orchards—driven largely by expanding infrastructure and crop-switching—pose a challenge for future output. Remarkably, despite a smaller cultivation area (falling from 15,183 to 14,177 hectares from 2021–22 to 2023–24), almond output surged from 7,898 to 9,100 metric tons, a testament to improved farming practices, high-yield varieties, government support, and favorable weather.
India continues to be a robust consumer of almonds, with demand underpinned by the confectionery, bakery, and health-food sectors. Global prices, led by quality US and Spanish almonds, are on an upward swing, and Kashmir’s top-grade kernels consistently fetch premium rates. However, growers and policy makers alike emphasize urgent farmland preservation to maintain the region’s dominant role in India’s almond supply. Meanwhile, recent investments in cold storage, orchard rejuvenation, and irrigation bode well for sector resilience.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.78 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.72 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Latest Almond Market Quotes
| Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | 6.78 | 6.73 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Carmel, SSR 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | 6.72 | 6.68 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | 9.38 | 9.33 | 2025-08-02 | Stable to Firm |
| Marcona, 12/14 | ES | Madrid | 6.71 | 6.66 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Mamra, Grade A | IR | Tehran | 11.18 | 10.95 | 2025-07-23 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Regional Dynamics and Market Drivers
- Kashmir (India): Record 2023–24 output at 9,100 MT; area down to 14,177 ha. Over 90% of India’s almonds grown here.
- US (California): Key global supplier. USDA reports note solid yields despite water/stress; good demand secures a floor for prices.
- Spain/Iran: Supplies steady; Spanish Marcona and premium Iranian Mamra remain in strong niche demand in Europe, Middle East, and Asia.
- Demand: India’s domestic consumption strong; global demand resilient due to healthy snacking trends and growing applications in food processing.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money net long on US exchanges, anticipating continued firm prices on tight high-grade supply.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Policy Support
- Kashmir: Yield boost credited to irrigation, high-density saplings, and weather. Government expands crop diversification and subsidy programs.
- US: Global almond stocks tightening as exports to Asia and Europe grow. Domestic prices supported by limited supply growth and strong export bookings.
- Weather: Favorable in key Indian, US, and Spanish regions for 2024; minor drought fears in California mostly offset by irrigation projects.
- Processing, Logistics: Cold storage and upgrades in India boost export quality, cut post-harvest losses, but continued land conversion a risk.
| Region | 2023–24 Output (MT) | Area (ha) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashmir (India) | 9,100 | 14,177 | Stable |
| California (US) | 1,305,000 | 500,000+ | Tightening |
| Spain | 90,000 | 600,000 | Stable |
| Iran | 150,000 | Not disclosed | Slightly increased |
⛅ Weather & Yield Outlook
- Kashmir: Temperatures mild; sufficient rain and snowmelt ensure irrigation supply. Outlook: Above-average yields likely next cycle if weather holds.
- California: Forecast: Mix of sunshine and isolated heat spikes; ample irrigation maintained. Crop stress lower than previous years.
- Spain: Warm, mostly dry, no extremes forecast. Steady flowering and setting conditions; no reported pest outbreaks.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Premium Kashmir kernels: Hold for high-value sales; supply/demand balance supportive of pricing above seasonal averages.
- US grades in demand: Likelihood of further price firming—watch for dips as buying opportunities; especially for food processing/industry.
- Exporters: Benefit from government support in India; invest further in quality/cold chain upgrades to capture price premiums.
- Monitor land use policies to gauge future capacity and avoid over-reliance on current yield gains.
- Traders: Maintain long positions in high-grade, certified nuts; manage stocks actively in anticipation of seasonal export surges.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin | Product/Grade | Current (EUR/kg) | Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Carmel SSR 18/20 | 6.78 | 6.80 – 6.85 | Bullish |
| US | Natural, Nonpareil (Organic) | 9.38 | 9.40 – 9.45 | Stable/Firm |
| IR | Mamra, grade A | 11.18 | 11.20 – 11.30 | Bullish |
| ES | Marcona, 12/14 | 6.71 | 6.73 – 6.80 | Bullish |
