The global almonds market is at a critical juncture mid-2025, marked by divergent trends in supply, demand, and prices. Most strikingly, the US—the world’s largest almond producer—has witnessed a significant contraction in domestic shipments, now down nearly 8% year-over-year. This decline has dragged the total 2024/25 crop year shipments to 2.5% below last year’s pace, despite only a modest 0.5% dip in exports. Inventories have climbed nearly 4% against last June, putting additional pressure on handlers as the industry aims to keep the carryout between 500 and 550 million pounds to stabilize the market. India stands out as the demand star, lifting June almond imports by 28.9% and nearly erasing a shortfall in its annual import pace. Meanwhile, Western Europe shows recovery with positive momentum in countries like Italy and the UK, though Germany lags. The Middle East, on the other hand, has faltered, hampered by geopolitical unrest and weaker demand from major economies.
The current situation is further complicated by a healthy US crop forecast (3 billion pounds) and timely harvest, suggesting downward price pressure in the short run unless demand, especially domestically, rebounds soon. Traders and food companies are now watching for buyer re-entry and the potential market impact of sizable inventories and conservative forward commitments.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.78 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.73 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Market Snapshot
| Product/Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.78 | 6.75 | +0.44% | Neutral/Bearish (inventory overhang) |
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.73 | 6.70 | +0.45% | Neutral/Bearish |
| Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr, organic | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.38 | 9.35 | +0.32% | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Developments
- US Shipments: June 2025 total shipments down 9.4% year-over-year to 186.7 million lbs; domestic plunges 17.2% while exports fall just 6.1%.
- Year-to-Date: 2024/25 crop year shipments -2.5% y/y; domestic demand -7.96%, exports -0.5%.
- India: Major demand driver (+28.9% in June, nearly even with last year’s cumulative pace).
- Western Europe: Italy imports +17% in June, UK rebound, Germany still lagging at -12% y/y.
- Middle East: Region down to +7% ytd after a 35% June drop; cutbacks in UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia.
- Morocco: Imports plunged to -22% ytd after strong early-year growth.
- Inventories: US handler inventories >711 million lbs (+3.95% y/y); carryout target 500–550 million lbs.
- Commitments: Forward sales below normal (buyers cautious, monitoring harvest progress).
📊 Fundamentals: Data & Market Drivers
- US Crop Forecast: Steady at 3.0 billion lbs for 2025; on-time harvest.
- USDA Position Report: Confirms weak domestic shipments, resilient exports.
- Buyer Behavior: Awaiting clarity on crop size; softening prices could trigger buyer re-entry.
- Global Trade Patterns: India and Italy provide upside; Middle East and Morocco weigh on demand.
- Speculative Positioning: Cautious, commitment levels below average; less speculative buying expected short-term.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Effects 🌦️
- California (main US almond region): Normal weather with no major heatwaves; timely irrigation and good pollination reported.
- Spain: Central and southern growing regions have experienced minor drought episodes, but precipitation in June has improved the soil profile. Crop stress residual, but less severe than early in season.
- Iran: General conditions stable, with adequate moisture aiding kernel fill. No major production shortfalls foreseen.
- Impact: Overall weather in key origins is supportive of strong yields, confirming the 3.0 billion lb US crop outlook and steady Spanish and Iranian supplies this season.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2023/24 Output (Est. million lbs) | 2024/25 Output (Proj. million lbs) | Year-on-Year Change | Stocks (End-June 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 2,870 | 3,000 | +4.5% | 711 |
| Spain | 390 | 410 | +5.1% | 82 |
| Iran | 90 | 92 | +2.2% | 18 |
| Australia | 130 | 135 | +3.8% | 17 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price softening likely through Q3 as inventories build during US harvest.
- Watch for domestic buyer re-entry: a rebound could quickly tighten nearby supply and trigger upside volatility.
- Export demand should remain solid, especially from India and Western Europe (Italy, UK); Morocco and Middle East to stay weak.
- Commitments for the new crop share below normal: near-term liquidity risk for sellers; buyers may find tactical entry opportunities.
- Monitor weather in California and Spain—continued stability will confirm the large US and Spanish crops.
- End-users and traders: hedge near-term requirements if spot softness emerges, but beware of possible price rebound if inventories clear faster than expected.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product/Origin | Location | Current Price | Forecast (72h) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 18/20, US | Washington D.C. | 6.78 EUR/kg | 6.75-6.78 EUR/kg | Sideways/Soft |
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 20/22, US | Washington D.C. | 6.73 EUR/kg | 6.70-6.73 EUR/kg | Sideways/Weak |
| Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr, US (organic) | Washington D.C. | 9.38 EUR/kg | 9.35-9.38 EUR/kg | Sideways |
