The global almonds market is currently experiencing notable weakness, with prices slipping and trade sentiment in a cautious lull. In key Asian trading regions, Californian almond prices have dipped to $8.95 per kg (from $9.05/kg), signaling a broader softness across major hubs. The latest European spot prices reflect a similar trend, with standard U.S. Carmel SSR 18/20 kernels now at €6.72/kg, down from €6.77/kg, and Spanish Marcona varieties also under mild pressure.
Fresh crop arrivals, lackluster demand from both retailers and traders, and anticipation of further price easing have contributed to a risk-off mode among market participants. While festive seasons may offer brief demand increases, the underlying tone remains subdued due to ample supply and tepid consumption growth. Forward-looking analysts project that without a pronounced supply disruption or unexpected demand surge, prices are likely to hover near current levels in the short term. A watchful eye on U.S. weather—critical for the coming harvest—and global trade policy trends remains essential, given the U.S.’s dominance in world almond exports.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.82 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.78 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.42 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Latest Almond Market Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Update Date | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel SSR 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.72 | 6.77 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Carmel SSR 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.68 | 6.73 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.32 | 9.37 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | ES | Madrid | FOB | 11.60 | 11.65 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Marcona 12/14 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 6.65 | 6.70 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
| Marcona S/16 | ES | Madrid | FOB | 8.90 | 8.95 | -0.05 | 2025-09-26 | Offer |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Demand Side: Weak buying interest is pressuring prices, particularly in the Indian and Asian markets. Buyers and traders are not stocking up, anticipating further declines.
- Supply Side: Fresh crop arrivals from both California and Spain, two major global producers, are increasing supply. U.S. supplies are strong, but ongoing harvest logistics and short-term shipping constraints may intermittently impact inventories.
- Trade Trends: Global almond trade remains robust, but sentiment is cautious. The U.S. continues to dominate global exports; Spain remains key in EU markets.
📊 Fundamental Drivers
- USDA and Industry Reports: Recent USDA estimates point to a stable-to-larger U.S. almond crop for 2024/2025, underscoring ample supplies for export markets.
- Consumer Trends: Retail and wholesale buyers remain conservative, watching for further price softening before restocking ahead of upcoming holidays.
- Speculation and Sentiment: Weakness in speculative buying and tepid consumer demand is keeping the market subdued.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- California’s Central Valley, primary almond region, has reported near-average recent temperatures and soil moisture. Early autumn rains have been lighter than usual but not yet threatening crop quality.
- Spain’s main almond regions are experiencing mild and dry weather, supporting harvest completion without notable quality losses. No major frost or disease events reported.
Weather risk remains low for the near-term, supporting ongoing harvest and pressing supply into the market.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (t) | 2024/25 Est. Ending Stocks (t) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,350,000 | 170,000 |
| Spain | 360,000 | 95,000 |
| Australia | 140,000 | 24,000 |
| India (imports) |
N/A | Large importer |
📆 Trading Outlook & Market Recommendations
- 📉 Short-term bias remains bearish. Avoid new long positions unless evidence of a strong demand recovery emerges for the holiday period.
- 🛑 Stock up cautiously. If you are a retailer or processor, take only essential cover near-term as prices may fall further.
- 🕒 Monitor U.S. logistics and ocean freight rates which could bring brief supply tightness but not change the overarching price direction.
- 🔎 Watch for spot opportunities in secondary origins (Spain/Australia) should U.S. shipping delays arise.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU (US Origin SSR kernels) | 6.72 | 6.65 – 6.75 | Bearish / Stable |
| EU (Spain Origin Marcona) | 6.65 | 6.60 – 6.68 | Bearish |
| EU (Organic US Nonpareil) | 9.32 | 9.28 – 9.36 | Neutral / Bearish |
| Asia (Delhi – Californian Almonds, USD/kg) | 8.95* (USD) | 8.85 – 9.00 (USD) | Bearish |