The global almond market is currently navigating a period of notable softness. Despite steady U.S. shipments, recent weeks have seen underlying prices come under renewed pressure reflective of both tepid local consumption and muted festive buying interest, particularly in key destination markets. Market participants across the supply chain—traders, processors, and exporters—have observed that even as imports remain free from major logistical disruptions, the reluctance of domestic buyers and tight procurement strategies have weighed on any upside momentum.
California, the world’s primary almond supplier, continues to maintain stable shipments, yet faces the challenge of sluggish offtake that is keeping prices rangebound and occasionally forcing sales below the previously established floors. Reports indicate a risk-averse environment, where both buyers and sellers operate with caution: sellers are urged to avoid distress sales and buyers cherry-pick lots for only immediate needs. The prevailing sentiment suggests any marked price rebound will likely depend on a boost from upcoming festival-driven demand or improved export inquiries. In the meantime, market watchers expect the market to remain soft or slightly weaker heading into the next few weeks.
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Almonds kernels
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FAS 6.73 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Currency | Current Price | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | EUR/kg | 6.78 | 6.78 | 0% | Neutral/Soft |
| Carmel, SSR 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | EUR/kg | 6.73 | 6.73 | 0% | Neutral/Soft |
| Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | EUR/kg | 9.38 | 9.38 | 0% | Stable |
| Standard Grade Kernel (CA) | US | California | USD/kg | 8.07 | 8.13–8.43 | -1.4% (midpoint) | Soft |
| High Grade 20-25 Count | US | California | USD/kg | 9.04 | – | — | Cautious |
| Gurbandi, High Oil | IN | — | USD/kg | 8.43–8.55 | – | — | Cautious |
| Mamra, Grade A | IR | Tehran | EUR/kg | 10.71 | 10.64 | +0.7% | Firm (Premium) |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Steady imports from California continue, with no major shipping/logistics issues reported.
- Domestic demand is described as lackluster, even as prices have softened, limiting upward movement.
- No significant festive or export demand surge has materialized, restraining volume trades—especially for high-grade or bulk lots.
- Sellers remain cautious, avoiding aggressive selling; buyers show similar restraint, procuring only to cover short-term needs.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports & Acreage: The latest USDA acreage report shows stable to slightly higher planted area in California, but with average yield expectations following favorable spring weather.
- Inventories: Global almond inventories are comfortable, with healthy end-stock levels in both the US and Spain, the world’s top suppliers.
- Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative activity as most participants are positioned for sideways movement, awaiting further market direction.
- Currency Impact: A stronger USD has made US-origin almonds relatively more expensive in some destination currencies, possibly dampening non-US demand.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- California: Weather remains largely favorable for the upcoming harvest, with no major drought or frost events recently reported. Some isolated heatwaves may have marginal impact on yields, but not expected to materially alter the 2025 crop outlook.
- Spain: Adequate rainfall during the spring and stable summer temperatures are supporting a positive yield outlook for Iberian almonds, with no significant risks in the short term.
- Iran: Normal monsoon conditions continue with no major adverse weather, supporting stable supply of Mamra and Sangi grades.
🌍 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. 000t) | Ending Stocks (est. 000t) | Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,420 | 345 | Largest exporter, price setter |
| Spain | 115 | 22 | Main EU supplier |
| Iran | 85 | 16 | Specialty grades |
| Australia | 135 | 28 | Emerging exporter |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔹 Sellers: Avoid distress selling while overall sentiment remains weak—hold for possible price improvement as demand could return in upcoming festival season.
- 🔹 Buyers: Continue spot or need-only purchases; bulk buying recommended only in the case of unexpected demand pick-up or approaching festive periods.
- 🔹 Exporters (US/Spain): Monitor currency swings and maintain flexibility in pricing strategies for different regions, especially as USD strength may suppress demand.
- 🔹 The market is expected to remain soft or slightly weaker in the next 3–4 weeks unless unforeseen shocks occur.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Market | Commodity/Grade | Forecast Price (per kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Spot/DC | Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | 6.75-6.80 EUR | Stable/Soft |
| US | Spot/DC | Natural, Nonpareil (Organic) | 9.35-9.40 EUR | Stable |
| Spain | Madrid (FOB) | Marcona, 12/14 | 6.70-6.75 EUR | Stable/Soft |
| Iran | Tehran (FOB) | Mamra, Grade A | 10.70-10.75 EUR | Stable/Firm |
