Almonds Market Update: Tightening Inventories Meet Global Demand Shifts

Almond markets are at a crossroads, with May shipments from California—home to about 80% of global supply—falling to 211 million pounds, a 6.3% decline year-over-year. The pullback is acutely visible in the domestic sector, where shipments are now on a three-month streak of double-digit declines, summing to a 7% slip for the crop year so far. At the same time, forward commitments have dropped to multi-year lows, reflecting a 12.7% lag in total commitments and a stunning 62% plunge in new crop commitments compared to last year. Such numbers have not been seen since future crop tracking began in 2016.

Internationally, the picture is more nuanced. India’s recovery (35 million lbs in May, up year-on-year), solid demand in Southeast Asia (+31% for the crop year), and steadier flows to Western Europe (with some countries climbing, others slipping) help counterbalance sluggishness on the home front. However, demand from China continues to fall off a cliff (down 51%), a trend linked more to changing trade routes and sourcing strategies than just tariffs or politics. These export dynamics are critical as Californian inventories tighten, possibly restricting popular grades for rising markets.

The outlook for the coming season is clouded by weak forward sales and concerns over inventory, but international demand—especially from India and Southeast Asia—remains a bright spot. With favorable to normal weather projected across California’s almond belt through mid-June, focus turns one last time to supplies still in hand, new crop development, and strategies for a shifting global demand matrix.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr, 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.80	-0.05	Bearish
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr, 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.75	-0.05	Bearish
Almonds kernels	US	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (Organic)	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.40	-0.05	Bearish
Almond kernels	ES	marcona, 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.70	-0.05	Stable to Bearish
Almond kernels	IR	Mamra, grade a	Tehran	FOB	11.23	+0.32	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• California Supply: Shipments in May down 6.3% year-on-year, driven by domestic weakness (down 22.3%). Total crop-year domestic shipments down 7%.
• Future Commitments: Lowest since 2016—total commitments down 12.7% and new crop commitments crashing by 62%.
• Exports: Flat overall. India surges (+3 million lbs YoY in May), offset by steep declines to China (-51%). Southeast Asian demand robust (+31%), but not enough to fully compensate.
• Europe: Steady aggregate volumes, but Spain still lagging (-11% for the season), Netherlands up strongly (+22%).
• Rest of World: China sourcing more from Australia, reshaping trade flows; Iranian almond prices firm with strong regional demand.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Crop Reports: No major upward revisions in Californian crop prospects; inventories still tightening.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds remain cautious, reacting to lackluster forward sales.
• Inventory: Lower forward sales and continued sluggish domestic off-take could push some supply into the new season, but with slow forward commitments, net available inventory is set to tighten.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• California Central Valley: June weather forecast remains favorable for almond nut fill and development—no significant heat or precipitation stress expected through the next 10 days, improving prospects for final yields.
• Spain (Andalusia & Valencia): Seasonally warm and dry, aiding maturity and quality but with some concerns if prolonged dryness continues past mid-June.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (2024/25, est.)	Stocks (June 2025, est.)	Trend
USA (California)	1.20 million MT	Low/Declining	Bearish
Spain	0.13 million MT	Stable	Slightly Bearish
Australia	0.13 million MT	Growing	Bullish for exports
Iran	~0.12 million MT	Stable	Bullish regionally
China	<0.05 million MT	Rising imports (ex-Australia)	Mixed

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Buyers: Favor short-term spot purchases—forward contracts look unattractive given low new crop commitments and possible price softening if inventories move forward.
• 📈 Sellers: Consider holding inventory if able, with expectations of tighter stocks later in the year—especially if Indian and Southeast Asian demand holds. Lock in premium for select grades now if targeting India/Asia.
• 🔄 Traders: Watch for late summer volatility as new crop supply clarity meets still-sluggish domestic demand and slow forward sales.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Product/Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (Next 3 Days)
Washington D.C. (US)	Carmel SSR 18/20	6.80	6.75 – 6.85
Madrid (ES)	Marcona 14/16	8.30	8.25 – 8.35
Tehran (IR)	Mamra, grade a	11.23	11.20 – 11.30