The global market for dried apricots is currently reeling from the aftershocks of a catastrophic crop failure in Turkey, the world’s dominant apricot producer. Malatya, the heart of Turkish apricot growing and processing, has seen almost its entire harvest wiped out by extreme weather conditions during the critical blooming and fruit-setting periods. As a direct result, most processing facilities remain closed and export volumes have plummeted. Despite minimal supply and shuttered factories, buying interest in dried Turkish apricots persists due to their traditional quality advantage and market familiarity.
However, Turkish farmers have little to nothing left to sell, forcing buyers and traders to compete over whatever small volumes are available. Price stagnation at historically elevated levels underscores the lack of movement in the market, while demand for Turkish product continues in both domestic and export markets despite the dramatic scarcity. This strained environment is likely to persist throughout the current season, marked by severe shortages, limited spot market deals, and sustained high prices.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no: 5, unsulphured
FOB 5.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured, organic
FOB 5.84 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured
FOB 5.35 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Type | Origin | FOB Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried | No: 5, unsulphured | Malatya | 5.00 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
| Apricots dried | No: 4, unsulphured, organic | Ankara | 5.84 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
| Apricots dried | No: 4, unsulphured | Malatya | 5.35 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
| Apricots dried | No: 3, dried unsulphured, organic | Malatya | 6.07 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
| Apricots dried | No: 1, unsulphured, organic | Malatya | 6.30 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
| Apricots dried | No: 8, sulphured | Malatya | 4.00 | 0.00 | Firm/Scarce |
Note: FOB prices as of 2025-09-17. No notable price changes this week; market remains tightly supplied with quoted offers static at record levels.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Turkey accounts for ~75% of global apricot production. This year, devastating frosts and poor weather wiped out nearly the entire Turkish crop, disrupting the heart of world supply.
- Major processing houses are closed or operating partially at low capacity, fulfilling only small, established orders—mainly for regular customers.
- Export volumes are drastically down versus previous years; the few remaining lots are allocated to key clients at strong premiums.
- With global supply pressure, buyers still prefer Turkish origin, pushing prices in other origins higher and strengthening Turkish market positioning despite the shortage.
- Small-scale domestic transactions may persist, but overall trading activity is severely constrained.
📊 Fundamentals & International Picture
| Country | Export Share (%) | 2024/25 Output (est., kt) | Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 75 | Severe drop (<30 kt) | Lowest in decades |
| Uzbekistan | 12 | Stable (~110 kt) | Rising |
| Iran | 4 | Stable/Up | Rising |
| Other | 9 | Steady | Limited |
Source: Trade estimates, regional statistics, last available Turkish export season comparison, vector data, and industry sources.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Malatya & Eastern Anatolia: Largely clear, stable temperatures for the next 3 days. Forecasts show no late-season rainfall to salvage damaged orchards. Prospects for new harvest recovery are minimal.
- Long-term: Recent years show a trend to higher spring frost risk and erratic rainfall, increasing the vulnerability of Turkish production.
💡 Key Market Insights & Trading Outlook
- Expect record-low export volumes from Turkey to persist through the current marketing year.
- Spot prices are likely to stay firm or trend higher due to acute scarcity and persistent international demand for Turkish origin.
- Alternative origins (Uzbekistan, Iran) are seeing elevated prices, but cannot entirely offset global shortfall.
- For buyers: Secure supply contracts immediately if Turkish product is essential—delays increase the risk of non-availability or even higher prices.
- For sellers: Strategic allocation and rationing of small lots can maximize profits, given market tightness.
- Speculative activity is low as the market is fundamentally illiquid and ruled by scarcity rather than expectation.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Product | Location | Forecast Price (€/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried No: 5, unsulphured | Malatya | 5.00 | Stable/Firm |
| Apricots dried No: 4, organic | Ankara | 5.84 | Stable/Firm |
| Apricots dried No: 4, unsulphured | Malatya | 5.35 | Stable/Firm |
Summary: The Turkish apricot market is facing its sharpest supply crisis in decades, with prices already near record highs and little new volume expected to enter the market in the coming weeks.
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