Apricot Market: Frost’s Lingering Effects and New Uncertainties for 2026

This week, the dried apricot market faces a combination of ongoing challenges and cautious optimism as the new season approaches. According to the latest figures, Turkey’s dried apricot exports remain sluggish, with only 778 tons exported last week—less than half compared to the 1,920 tons shipped in the same period last year. The root cause of this underperformance traces directly to the severe frost of the previous season, whose impacts continue to constrain market availability and will likely persist until at least the season’s end. Producers are pinning their hopes on upcoming sapling plantings and favorable weather, but the specter of spring frost remains a central risk.

On the ground, the outlook is one of cautious preparation. With rising temperatures, apricot trees at lower altitudes have already begun to flower—a development that signals early budding may soon follow. Farmers throughout the Malatya region, a global apricot hub, are watching the weather; many have implemented proactive measures to guard against further frost incidents, particularly as April poses a historical risk for damage. This dual dynamic of reduced current supply and the looming threat to the next crop creates a complex environment for growers, traders, and buyers alike, shaping both price stability and future expectations.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin/Location	Organic	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Apricots dried, no: 5, unsulphured	Malatya, TR	No	Unsulphured	8.00	0.00	Stable, low activity
Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured, organic	Ankara, TR	Yes	Unsulphured	9.40	0.00	Stable
Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured	Malatya, TR	No	Unsulphured	8.10	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Export Volumes: Only 778 tons exported last week from Turkey versus 1,920 tons last year—down ~60% YoY.
• Last Year’s Frost: Still a dominant market constraint; inventories remain tight due to smaller harvests and persistent frost-related losses.
• Market Activity: Traders are reluctant to commit to large positions until the risk of new frost abates in April. Buyers are avoiding stockpiling amid unpredictable crop outlook.
• Farmer Activity: Sapling plantings for the next season are ongoing; precautionary frost measures are widespread.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory Levels: Drawdowns from last year’s crop are likely below average, intensifying local price support despite muted exports.
• Speculation: Limited speculative activity due to weather-induced production uncertainty; participants await clarity on 2026’s crop.
• Global Market: Turkey’s sluggish volumes impact European and Middle Eastern sourcing—alternative suppliers see stable but firm prices as a result.

🌦️ Weather Watch

• Current Conditions: Rising temperatures trigger early flowering at lower altitudes in Malatya.
• April Risk: Historical risk of late frost in April remains high. Farmer vigilance is critical; successful passage through April would remove a major downside risk and stabilize yield expectations.
• Outlook Effect: Any renewed frost events could amplify supply tightness and cause abrupt price hikes; a favorable April would support a return to normal volumes.

🌐 Global Perspective

• Major Exporter: Turkey remains the world’s leading supplier; current volumes are insufficient to meet regular import needs in key markets.
• Stock Levels Elsewhere: Alternative exporters face stable demand but lack capacity to fully offset Turkey’s shortfall.
• Import Markets: Europe and the Middle East continue to monitor Turkish developments closely; buyers likely to remain hand-to-mouth until crop prospects improve.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Exporters: Maintain flexible supply strategies and be responsive to sudden buyer interest if frost risks recede in April.
• For Importers: Secure minimum necessary inventory, with caution against large forward positions until post-April yield clarity emerges.
• For Farmers: Continue frost precautions and monitor bud development; swift response to temperature shifts is vital.
• Market Sentiment: Cautious, with upside price risk if cold weather returns; bullish momentum possible if persistent supply shortfall deepens.

📉 3-Day Price Forecast

• Malatya Dried Apricots No: 5, Unsulphured (FOB): EUR 8.00/kg (Steady, pending weather)
• Ankara Dried Apricots No: 4, Unsulphured, Organic (FOB): EUR 9.40/kg (Steady)
• Malatya Dried Apricots No: 4, Unsulphured (FOB): EUR 8.10/kg (Steady)

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