Apricot Market in Crisis: Frost, Drought, and Uncertainty Shape 2025 Outlook
The apricot market is facing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory. Following a devastating frost in Malatya—the heart of global dried apricot production—farmers are struggling to recover, with many reporting severe damage to their orchards and expressing urgent need for government support. The situation is compounded by ongoing drought, soaring input costs driven by a weak Turkish lira (EUR/TRY at 43), and a halt in exports due to ochratoxin contamination concerns.
As a result, local market prices for apricots have surged to 500-650 TRY per kilogram, with expectations of further increases as the season progresses. Exporters are operating in the dark, unable to predict either raw material procurement costs or export volumes. Meanwhile, farmers are offloading remaining stocks in local markets, and even apricot seeds are being marketed. Pockets of hope exist where trees near dams have produced some fruit, but overall, the outlook remains grim. This season’s challenges are a stark reminder of the vulnerability of agricultural markets to climate and economic shocks, and all eyes are now on potential state intervention to stabilise the sector.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no: 5, unsulphured
FOB 5.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured, organic
FOB 5.84 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured
FOB 5.35 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices: Current Market Overview
| Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/kg) | Previous Price (USD/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried, no 5, unsulphured | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 5.00 | 5.00 | 2025-05-20 | Firm |
| Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured, organic | TR | Ankara | Yes | FOB | 5.84 | 5.84 | 2025-05-20 | Stable |
| Apricots dried, no: 4, unsulphured | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 5.35 | 5.35 | 2025-05-20 | Firm |
| Apricots dried, no 3, dried unsulphured, organic | TR | Malatya | Yes | FOB | 6.07 | 6.07 | 2025-05-20 | Firm |
| Apricots dried, no 1, unsulphured | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 5.75 | 5.75 | 2025-05-20 | Firm |
| Apricots dried, no: 8, sulphured (2000 ppm) | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2025-05-20 | Weak |
| Apricots dried, premium, diameter >30mm | IR | Tehran | No | FOB | 2.71 | 2.66 | 2025-05-03 | Rising |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Frost and Drought: Severe frost in Malatya has caused extensive damage to apricot trees, with drought compounding yield losses. Farmers are facing significant uncertainty regarding the 2025 crop size.
- Currency Impact: The sharp rise in the Euro/TRY rate (now at 43) is inflating input costs (especially pesticides and fertilisers), squeezing farmer margins and pushing up prices.
- Export Disruptions: Exports have stalled due to the return of products containing ochratoxin, raising concerns about food safety and further limiting market access.
- Government Intervention: Farmers and irrigation unions are lobbying for urgent support, including water price reductions and direct subsidies. The market is watching for policy responses.
- Local Market Activity: With uncertain export prospects, more apricots and seeds are being sold domestically, supporting local prices but not offsetting overall losses.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison
- Turkey: Remains the world’s largest dried apricot producer, but 2025 output is expected to drop sharply due to weather shocks.
- Iran: Prices for premium dried apricots are rising (2.71 USD/kg, up from 2.66 USD/kg), suggesting a tightening supply across the region.
- Europe: European buyers are facing higher prices for Turkish origin, with FCA prices in the Netherlands for cubes ranging from 5.49 to 6.38 USD/kg.
- Stocks: Global inventories are likely to fall as Turkish supply contracts, with little relief from alternative origins.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Malatya: Recent forecasts indicate continued dry conditions with above-average temperatures for the next 7 days, raising further concerns over fruit development and quality.
- Yield Risk: The combination of frost damage and ongoing drought is expected to reduce both yield and fruit size, with only limited pockets (e.g., near dams) showing normal production.
- Long-Term Outlook: Climate volatility remains a key risk factor for future crops, with adaptation measures urgently needed.
🌐 Production & Stock Table
| Country | 2024/25 Output (est.) | 2023/24 Output | 2024/25 Stocks (est.) | 2023/24 Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | ~80,000 t (down sharply) | 120,000 t | Low | Moderate |
| Iran | ~30,000 t | 28,000 t | Low | Low |
| Uzbekistan | ~15,000 t | 15,000 t | Stable | Stable |
| EU | ~10,000 t | 12,000 t | Low | Low |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure contracts early—further price increases are likely as supply tightens and export flows remain uncertain.
- Exporters: Monitor government policy developments and currency fluctuations closely; be prepared for volatile procurement costs.
- Farmers: Prioritise irrigation and crop protection where possible; document losses for potential state compensation.
- Speculators: Bullish momentum expected, but watch for potential government intervention or relief measures.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malatya (TR) | Dried, unsulphured, no. 5 | 5.00 | 5.10 – 5.25 | Bullish |
| Ankara (TR) | Dried, unsulphured, organic, no. 4 | 5.84 | 5.85 – 6.00 | Stable/Bullish |
| Tehran (IR) | Dried, premium | 2.71 | 2.75 – 2.90 | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Dried, Cubes, no.4 | 5.98 | 6.00 – 6.15 | Bullish |
